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Bama lost!!!!!!
- Thread starter Leakfan12
- Start date
Look, with all the problems that our crazy-@$$-fun-win DIDN'T really wash away, just washed us clean for a DAY or so (NOT that I'll give it BACK, or change anything ABOUT that feeling of ""WHEW! How did that HAPPEN?!!"), I'm not going to worry too much about ANYTHING but our next game, then the one AFTER THAT...HOWEVER:
In pure "Chances open to US"-terms, that 'Bama loss actually just about KILLS anything but a VERY long shot at the Sugar Bowl...(Right or wrong) the BCS "Plus One" Championship game is now CLOSED to ANY SEC-team unless a BUNCH of ridiculous sh*t happens, and the Tide just bumped THEMSELVES into "inside track to the Sugar Bowl", and the rest of us OUT of it--AGAIN: unless some combination of stupid longshot outcomes occur, WE have NO shot at anything better than the "Capital One" Bowl New Year's day now...
I won't argue with the outright STUPIDITY of this situation--and so much for the so-called "sanctity of the value of each regular season game in College Football"--not just for US, either, but for our whole Conference:
How can, like, close to HALF of our League be in-or-around the TOP TEN list for the whole nation--but NONE of our teams will be in their so-called "Championship Game", even the one that emerges from our SEC-Championship Game?!! How can that game be viewed as ANYTHING ELSE BUT a defacto "Elimination Game" for the "Plus One", given the current system's flawed scenarios? But once again: The biases and long-standing frustrations and jealousies of both coaches AND writers outside the SEC are allowed to rule the day...
THIS is why WE have no PROBLEM with the idea of BLOWING UP the BCS, the Bowl System, the whole "nostalgic tradition" BS of it ALL, ONCE AND FOR ALL, and starting over with something at least HALF-way reasonable and "fair"...We gave 'em their chance, chancES at keeping the framework, USING the BOWLS to set up what amounted to an 8-team playoff that included just 2 more games added on (well, 2 more for the two eventual Final-participants, 3 more games played altogether) beyond the 4 big BCS Bowls...but they fought it and finally went with this 4-team thing that starts in 2014: You watch...eventually this will expand to a proper "8-team Play-off" that makes the Bowls just a sideshow, if they aren't absorbed away entirely in the end. It is inevitable, just a matter of time now, but the POINT is "GOOD RIDDANCE"!!! Screw all those corrupt old F*CKS in ugly blazers!
PS I don't have any "feel" at ALL about how we'll play or what we'll try or who will try it etc. etc. etc. the rest of this season...we are in COMPLETE disarray on offense, at this point, and who even knows if we'll get our current OC (who I happen to believe IS the right guy and needs another year and some new bodies at WR and along-the-line to even BEGIN to show what he has in mind for us) back for even another SEASON, let alone the "5-year plan" that was talked about when he came over...
Hey Bammer! The Aggies beat the hell outta you! Rammer Jammer yella screwdriver and all that crap.
I'd feel better about that 'Bama loss if I really believed that (1) we really ARE developing as the "preferred choice" by the Fiesta Bowl to meet Notre Dame there, should both of us win out, and (2) that we had anything more than an unknown long-odds shot at GOING "undefeated" the rest of the way...
Since Bama lost, here are the updated scenarios:
- Alabama can still make it to the national title game as the top 1-loss team if Oregon or K-State loses as long as it crushes Georgia. Some think that both Oregon and K-State need to lose, and they do have a point. There is a lot of human interaction that pushes the polls, which then drive the bowl selections. The fact that aTm beat Alabama is not what knocks Alabama down--it is the fact that Alabama downright stank up the field in the first half and then choked in its comeback attempt in the 4th. Will the human voters take this into consideration? The one thing that humans have done to help out the SEC is to consider the entire season's body of work when comparing 1-loss teams. 1-loss teams have made it to the national championship game over zero-loss teams on two occasions: LSU and Ohio State.
- Oregon still has its two hardest games: #14 Stanford and #11 Oregon State. Remember that Stanford knocked off #2 USC earlier. Also note that none of these teams has a defense to speak of.
- K-State only has one challenge left, #17 Texas. Baylor is an above average team in terms of Little 12 competition--they did play close losses against Texas, West Virginia, and Oklahoma.
- Georgia can back into the national title game by crushing Alabama, and hoping for a loss by Oregon or K-State.
- Notre Dame can also sneak into the national title game by winning out, including a convincing win over #19 USC.
- I think that Bama shot itself in the foot, not by losing, but by being losers. If you pay attention to my posts, you will see that I am okay with losing games, but not by being a loser. This also means that Bama will probably get that Sugar Bowl slot that could have been Florida's.
- Florida actually gets demoted from its Sugar Bowl possibility and now must consider the Capital One Bowl as its top possibility, but with the Chick Fil-A Bowl as its more realistic destination.
Guys I think IT HELPS especially if the Gators win out Also if ND loses increases the chances, the BCS won't shut down a 11-1 team especially a team that beat (TA&M on the road, USCar, LSU, and I hoping FSU again on the road). Plus Bama or UGA will lose two games. If anyone thinks that the Gators going 11-1 and be shut out of the BCS bowl needs to get on the K-State bandwagon NOW. Granted worry about Jacksonville State game first.
As I've said/implied elsewhere, there are starting to be as many "alternate scenarios" as there are "# of persons proposing scenarios multiplied times the # of scenarios each comes up with"...For eg.: Escambia94 You, I take it, do NOT include among yours the possibility being proposed in a number of places that a 1-loss Gator-team gets the Fiesta Bowl-bid against a Notre Dame team that either goes undefeated and is shut out of the Plus One, or that same ND-team with 1-loss (wherein the ND-fix is waiting to keep them there ANYWAY, their pre-ordained minimum reward, already guaranteed)...right? Leakfan12 As I warned, we were ALWAYS gonna be squeezed by a 'Bama pre-SEC-Championship loss...no matter HOW you slice it, "our" slot in the Sugar Bowl would seem to have evaporated with that outcome. Now we seem to have at least SOME sliver of hope for a Fiesta Bowl opening--our only BCS-shot left, if it truly exists at all--and even then, I am unclear on how much outside, beyond-our-control help we'd need to get there. ALL of which brings me back to my "let's just see if we can take care of our OWN business"-bottomline attitude. Here is as far out on these multi-branched-limbs I will go with y'all:
In my view, by the very fact of how little they all dropped us down after our Georgia-loss and continue to hold us there, I think the "Human-Polls" have been WAITING for us to just show SOMETHING on offense, just a BUST-OUT performance against one of these lesser-teams, pending (of course) ANY kind of win over the 'Noles, to make US one of the 1-loss BCS teams--but time is running out for us: Either we put that combo together the next 2 weeks, or we're left having to pull off a CONVINCING win against FSU and STILL not necessarily be given that coveted slot...we WON'T be the only SEC-team in the running for it now regardless.
In my view, by the very fact of how little they all dropped us down after our Georgia-loss and continue to hold us there, I think the "Human-Polls" have been WAITING for us to just show SOMETHING on offense, just a BUST-OUT performance against one of these lesser-teams, pending (of course) ANY kind of win over the 'Noles, to make US one of the 1-loss BCS teams--but time is running out for us: Either we put that combo together the next 2 weeks, or we're left having to pull off a CONVINCING win against FSU and STILL not necessarily be given that coveted slot...we WON'T be the only SEC-team in the running for it now regardless.
My scenarios are also tempered by some realistic assumptions:
- the Florida offense is not going to pass the "eye test" by improving from #100 to #50 in two games
- FSU is going to be tough on Florida, win or lose, and will not give separation in the eyes of human voters to be SEC #1-3. Florida has little control over its destiny.
- Alabama or Georgia will be the top 1-loss SEC team, but neither can afford a snoozer victory
- Lame Kitten and the USC Condoms get a vote on where the SEC finishes via Notre Dame
- Texas gets a vote on the BCS CG against K-State
- Oregon controls its destiny with three opportunities: the Cardinal, the Beaver, and the no-defense conference championship.
The Fiesta Bowl would probably not take an SEC team if K-State were available, since the Sugar Bowl is available for an SEC team for at-large selections. If things play out, aTm actually could steal this BCS bowl and send Bama to the Sugar, thus relegating Georgia, Florida, and LSU to non-BCS bowls. Only two SEC teams can be picked at-large.
The national title game is with reach for the SEC, but it needs help.
One thing to remember is that nobody can accurately guess at-large selections, or "conference ranking plus or minus one" selections.
- the Florida offense is not going to pass the "eye test" by improving from #100 to #50 in two games
- FSU is going to be tough on Florida, win or lose, and will not give separation in the eyes of human voters to be SEC #1-3. Florida has little control over its destiny.
- Alabama or Georgia will be the top 1-loss SEC team, but neither can afford a snoozer victory
- Lame Kitten and the USC Condoms get a vote on where the SEC finishes via Notre Dame
- Texas gets a vote on the BCS CG against K-State
- Oregon controls its destiny with three opportunities: the Cardinal, the Beaver, and the no-defense conference championship.
The Fiesta Bowl would probably not take an SEC team if K-State were available, since the Sugar Bowl is available for an SEC team for at-large selections. If things play out, aTm actually could steal this BCS bowl and send Bama to the Sugar, thus relegating Georgia, Florida, and LSU to non-BCS bowls. Only two SEC teams can be picked at-large.
The national title game is with reach for the SEC, but it needs help.
One thing to remember is that nobody can accurately guess at-large selections, or "conference ranking plus or minus one" selections.
I had ALWAYS assumed that A&M, of all SEC-teams, had the inside track to the Fiesta once they beat 'Bama, but some say otherwise--and THEIR voices have gotten more and more attention of late. Then there are those supposed experts most immersed in the projections who continue to include us in the "Plus One" discussion (in the inclusive phrase, "...Alabama, Georgia and Florida as 1-loss SEC Champions who could still make the National Championship game as SEC-Champions, but all requiring some help...")--but I have no real idea of how that could happen from here...How could we be the SEC-Champions NOW--bearing in mind that these statements are being bandied about in the days SINCE our loss to UGA, and 'Bama's loss to A&M? They MUST mean that we could somehow come out of the SEC as the most attractive/highest ranked SEC team based on everything that happens between now and the 1st weekend in Dec., when the various Conference Championships are played--The same weekend, incidentally, as the final Oregon and K-St. games, against some of the, well, the best I can civilly describe it as is "the most relatively challenging" opponents either faces this season, where in mine and others' POV neither (ESPECIALLY K-St.) has faced anything LIKE REAL competition. As I've said elsewhere many times, I am thoroughly convinced that not ONE of the 3 undefeated teams now atop the BCS-Standings would escape ANY of the schedules faced by any of the 6 SEC teams below them in the Top 10 without at LEAST 2 losses--but I don't expect enough of the voters to acknowledge this reality in any practical way that would benefit any of us.
All of which begins to give me a slightly sick feeling in my gut--and we've really only scratched the surface here. I'm sorry: I better stop: it's back to "let's take care of our OWN business" for me...the only part of all this that y'all have specifically addressed that really applies, far as I can see, all include or are prefaced by words and phrases like "could steal", "if available", "if so-and-so loses","pending the outcome","probably would/would not", "nobody can accurately guess", "but needs help", and so on. We'll talk about it AFTER our own next two "MUST WIN" scenarios have played out, OK? That goes well, and I'll be GLAD to hypothesize with the best of ya.
All of which begins to give me a slightly sick feeling in my gut--and we've really only scratched the surface here. I'm sorry: I better stop: it's back to "let's take care of our OWN business" for me...the only part of all this that y'all have specifically addressed that really applies, far as I can see, all include or are prefaced by words and phrases like "could steal", "if available", "if so-and-so loses","pending the outcome","probably would/would not", "nobody can accurately guess", "but needs help", and so on. We'll talk about it AFTER our own next two "MUST WIN" scenarios have played out, OK? That goes well, and I'll be GLAD to hypothesize with the best of ya.
There is a video out there that walks through the selection process, and it makes sense given what is known that week. Since the variables change from week to week, there will be different predictions each week. That is why it is silly to predict these things 3 weeks out. A lot can change. The one thing worse is when people pay for insider access on ESPN, GatorCountry, or Rivals just to get the most accurate prediction that winds up being wrong the next week when teams lose, e.g. Louisville and Alabama.
Last week it made sense to predict Florida vs. Louisville in the Sugar, because nobody expected both Louisville and Alabama to lose. The current predictions are contingent upon Florida beating FSU, K-State winning out, Oregon winning out and taking the Pac-12 championship, and nobody caring about Notre Dame unless they blow out USC 555-0. Wait next week and see how much changes. Repeat until December.
Last week it made sense to predict Florida vs. Louisville in the Sugar, because nobody expected both Louisville and Alabama to lose. The current predictions are contingent upon Florida beating FSU, K-State winning out, Oregon winning out and taking the Pac-12 championship, and nobody caring about Notre Dame unless they blow out USC 555-0. Wait next week and see how much changes. Repeat until December.
It can happen. If Bama and Georgia drop a turd in Atlanta with a snoozer, then the BCS selectors are going to use that at-large selection on a team that will generate revenue. The SEC champion gets a BCS bowl bid, but that second BCS bowl can go to just about anybody in the top 14. The preference is to take the top ranked SEC team available. There are not a lot of points separating Alabama, Georgia, Florida, LSU, and aTm. We know that everyone but Florida is guaranteed to win out. The others do not have any more ranked opponents left. That is good and bad. If Florida beats a ranked FSU, its record against the BCS top 10 will be 4-1--clearly better than anyone else's. If it loses, then aTm can climb over LSU, Florida, and Georgia because none of them have ranked opponents to leverage BCS points against. From there, the selection based on the whim of the bowl selection committee.
...Also, there will be both sentiment AND match-up preferences involved in the Fiesta Bowl selection process that favor A&M, regardless...For example, there are several possible opponents from the southwest, either current not-so-Big 12 or former-SWC that, if eligible, travel well AND would make naturally desirable and marketable potential match-ups with A&M, now no longer on their annual schedules.
No, we'll have to take care of our own business AND receive some "help" in some part of the process, such as it is, if we are to end up in ANY BCS game--but what else is new? "It's a weird year...". so I've been saying all along, an "all-or-nothing" proposition THIS time around, and we BLEW the "all" part at the Cocktail Party. It's been "win out and see" ever since.
No, we'll have to take care of our own business AND receive some "help" in some part of the process, such as it is, if we are to end up in ANY BCS game--but what else is new? "It's a weird year...". so I've been saying all along, an "all-or-nothing" proposition THIS time around, and we BLEW the "all" part at the Cocktail Party. It's been "win out and see" ever since.
