Well the Gators need to win out most importantly especially beating FSU hopefully they will only be a one loss team prior to facing the Gators. We like for Auburn to beat UGA but it's unlikely because Auburn has no f--king offense. So that leaves Bama, I sure it would help if A&M can pull off a upset because Gators beat A&M. Plus both Bama and UGA would have lost a game going to the SEC title game. I believe the only nightmare possiblitily is if UGA beats an undefeated Bama team then UGA gets the SEC spot and Bama gets the wild card spot and the Gators go to a non BCS bowl game. I rooting for A&M and Auburn this weekend.
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Do the Gators need Bama to win out until the national title to reach a BCS Bowl?
- Thread starter Leakfan12
- Start date
If you look at all the rules, here are the scenarios:
- If Alabama, Georgia, and Florida win out, but Georgia looks shaky against Auburn and Alabama, then Florida will be SEC #2 as the other 1-loss team and SEC East co-champion. This puts Florida into the Sugar Bowl (BCS).
- If Alabama, Georgia, and Florida win out, but Georgia keeps it close against Alabama, the human poll (1/3 of the formula) may put Georgia into the Sugar and Florida into the Capital One.
- If Alabama and Georgia win out, but Florida loses to FSU, the best bowl Florida will get is Capitol One as SEC #2/#3 with 2 losses.
- Alabama can still make it to the national title game by losing to aTm, but beating Georgia. If Georgia pounds Alabama, a whole bunch of scenarios can play out--with the possibility of Georgia getting launched into BCS #2 for the national title.
- If Florida keeps winning, it will likely be in the Sugar Bowl, but it could wind up as low as the Capitol One.
- If Florida loses against FSU, it could still land the Capital One, but could land the Outback.
Call me greedy, bit if we WERE to win out and get past FSU on the road, I would be nothing but f*cking PISSED with anything LOWER than the Sugar Bowl.
(Side Point #1--I make this declaration while crossing my fingers and throwing salt over my left shoulder--remind me to vacuum over in that corner--in penance for violating the ultimate Gator "One game at a time"-rule.
Side Point #2--This is Election Night, and I am proud to note that I have MY priorities straight, over here on GE rather than watching the strange media parade elsewhere on the box...in the end, what I care about most are 4 or more years of "Gator Dominance", and I believe that is possible!)
(Side Point #1--I make this declaration while crossing my fingers and throwing salt over my left shoulder--remind me to vacuum over in that corner--in penance for violating the ultimate Gator "One game at a time"-rule.
Side Point #2--This is Election Night, and I am proud to note that I have MY priorities straight, over here on GE rather than watching the strange media parade elsewhere on the box...in the end, what I care about most are 4 or more years of "Gator Dominance", and I believe that is possible!)
Definitely keep thinking one game at a time. The BCS system is flawed in that with enough human influence, a team can be manipulated above another based on "impression". No matter what, if Florida and Georgia win out, they are still co-champions of the SEC East. That alone lets a human voter use his personal tie-breaker criteria to select Florida or Georgia for the BCS at-large spot that goes to the Sugar Bowl. When the 4-team playoff system gets here, we still have a problem. What if the 4-team playoff existed today? Who gets ranked higher out of the four 1-loss SEC teams if each of them owns a victory over the other? Imagine a world where Florida beat LSU, LSU beat Georgia, South Carolina beat Georgia, but Georgia beat Florida (pretend for a second that LSU were in the East). Who should be the highest ranked? Most will say that since the Georgia victory is the "newest" victory, it gets the 4-way tiebreaker vote.
In other words, the 4-team playoff solves some problems, but ignores others. The playoff should be expanded to 8 teams, and should require all partipants to have a conference championship game. Without that equalizer, the B12 gets an advantage that the Pac-12 and SEC do not have.
For now, let us worry about Florida Bowl #1 against ULaLa, then Florida Bowl #2 against Jax State, then Florida Bowl #3 against SWAC (School With A Circus).
In other words, the 4-team playoff solves some problems, but ignores others. The playoff should be expanded to 8 teams, and should require all partipants to have a conference championship game. Without that equalizer, the B12 gets an advantage that the Pac-12 and SEC do not have.
For now, let us worry about Florida Bowl #1 against ULaLa, then Florida Bowl #2 against Jax State, then Florida Bowl #3 against SWAC (School With A Circus).
Escambia94 : "In other words, the 4-team playoff solves some problems, but ignores others. The playoff should be expanded to 8 teams, and should require all partipants to have a conference championship game. Without that equalizer, the B12 gets an advantage that the Pac-12 and SEC do not have."
Exactly--I have ALWAYS proposed an 8-game format, though of course a 4-game playoff is an improvement on "Plus One"...Once you get down to "an argument between 8 and 9", it becomes more obviously a matter of "Hey, ya shoulda played well-enough not to BE in this situation...". With a dominant Conference like the SEC, though, precisely the kind of problem you propose here (and more or less appears to be developing this time, without the play-off controversy but sticking it to one of us perhaps in the BCS) not only "can happen" but "probably WILL". The question is, will anyone outside the SEC care? (They probably would ENJOY the idea!)
Exactly--I have ALWAYS proposed an 8-game format, though of course a 4-game playoff is an improvement on "Plus One"...Once you get down to "an argument between 8 and 9", it becomes more obviously a matter of "Hey, ya shoulda played well-enough not to BE in this situation...". With a dominant Conference like the SEC, though, precisely the kind of problem you propose here (and more or less appears to be developing this time, without the play-off controversy but sticking it to one of us perhaps in the BCS) not only "can happen" but "probably WILL". The question is, will anyone outside the SEC care? (They probably would ENJOY the idea!)
The 4-game playoff is still progress. As long as the SEC keeps winning, they will get the tiebreakers to get into the top 4, but they will always be at a disadvantage compared to Little 12 or Notre Dame. Nobody really cares about anyone below #5, so in the 4-game playoff only #5 is getting screwed, especially if #5's one loss is in a conference championship while a Little 12 team or Notre Dame team is undefeated and in the top 4.
This works out well for the SEC. Sometime in the next few years, the SEC will lose its dominance. That is part of "the cycle". When that happens, the SEC will no longer be able to rely on the "SEC is a more dominant conference" argument and each team will have to fight for those top 4 rankings by going undefeated or having one loss against a good team.
This works out well for the SEC. Sometime in the next few years, the SEC will lose its dominance. That is part of "the cycle". When that happens, the SEC will no longer be able to rely on the "SEC is a more dominant conference" argument and each team will have to fight for those top 4 rankings by going undefeated or having one loss against a good team.
I'm not so sure that "cycle" you refer to is either as regular or even relevant anymore, E-. Oh, I'm sure that things will change, certain teams will be ascendant while others have "down cycles", but consider: the rise of the SEC as THE dominant college football conference has occurred at the same time as the mandated limiting and equalization of scholarships throughout what-was-once-called "Division I", with the general result of what was intended-to-be "parity"--and it has worked EXCEPT in the case of our Conference, where coaching and (most important of all) a shift south in the most fertile recruiting grounds has given us the edge. These are conditions that are NOT likely to change anytime soon. Oh, there'll be ebb and flow AMONG the SEC teams--more having to do with coaching prowess: whose program gets the hot young hands hungry to build long term (like us, right now)--but it could be some time before the top 4-to-6 teams in the SEC aren't, for the most part, the only regular competition to each other, when all is said and done--and most years deserve at LEAST 2 of those 4 play-off-positions, though there is sure to be all sorts of maneuvering backlash against us.
The cycle I am referring to is that in any college football program, there is a 6- to 10-year span of dominance before that team loses its dominance for a multitude of reasons:
- assistant coaches grow up and leave
- other coaches figure out counters to the dominant coach's teams
- too many coaches in the same conference copy the formula enough for the original formula to be dominant
- programs undergo NCAA sanctions
- major events outside football shake up the entire sport
- Alabama has been lucky that it has not lost too many key coaches. As long as Kirby Smart stays at Bama, their defense will remain top-ten. The offense will bite them--note the dropoff in offensive balance and stability with the changeover from McElwain to Nussmeier.
- Les Miles can beat Nick Saban, given a healthy team with no internal fighting and some smart play calling.
- Other SEC teams like Florida, LSU, and South Carolina all have similar formulas as Alabama, by accident or by design. Bama knows how to beat each of those teams, because it practices against those kind of teams every week in practice.
- Some SEC team is due for some sanctions. Auburn got lucky.
- The playoff system can theoretically change how SEC dominance factors in.
I see your point, E-...Of all of it, the "sanctions-factor" is the one that trumps my logic--always "out there" as an unknown-but-possible, some would say even LIKELY "wildcard" with so much resentment and animosity-spurred "digging" going on (What DID happen with Auburn, btw? Nothing concrete was ever done to punish them, even conclude-with-a-judgment it seems...last thing we heard was last season, when Chizic asked for it to be "resolved" and was told by an NCAA official "It'll be over when we SAY it is..." as if there was still some dark decision ahead--but since then, NOTHING...Seems they'll even get to keep their tainted-Championship) ...Anyway, you have a point there; my view was that, without something HUGE along those lines busting open, the kind of "cycle of dominance" you rightly note will still be a reality, but there may well be more of it WITHIN the SEC, with a similar number of dominant teams emerging on top of our Conference even still. I grant you, all the factors you mention taken together do make a convincing argument (and it is certainly so that "cross-pollination" among coaches and their ideas is at work among seemingly all the teams in our league, for whatever that's worth). However, there is a certain amount of "if this, then that" involved even then, and requires a "perfect storm" of them all hitting at once for MY scenario to be rendered completely invalid.
In the end, though, I'll place my hope and confidence in the unique personality and accompanying skills, attitude, priorities and personnel decisions of OUR Head Coach, and the people he brings in--coaches AND players--to set us apart and keep us moving forward. That's another reason I feel so strongly the importance of Pease staying on with us at LEAST a couple more seasons: continuity of training and overall scheme, the building chemistry that will, if allowed to go on, naturally strengthen into something eventually somewhat self-sustaining (easier to get someone ELSE hungry and talented if/when he DOES move onward/upward, easier for the new guy to maintain once he gets here, once that Pease-built machine is already in place with a momentum all its own).
In the end, though, I'll place my hope and confidence in the unique personality and accompanying skills, attitude, priorities and personnel decisions of OUR Head Coach, and the people he brings in--coaches AND players--to set us apart and keep us moving forward. That's another reason I feel so strongly the importance of Pease staying on with us at LEAST a couple more seasons: continuity of training and overall scheme, the building chemistry that will, if allowed to go on, naturally strengthen into something eventually somewhat self-sustaining (easier to get someone ELSE hungry and talented if/when he DOES move onward/upward, easier for the new guy to maintain once he gets here, once that Pease-built machine is already in place with a momentum all its own).
If Pease stays, and Muschamp has connections to grab replacement coordinators quickly, then the Florida program will be in good shape. Continuity is what kills Florida. After the 1996 national championship, Spurrier started losing his assistants. After Meyer won his first national championship, he lost a couple assistants, then lost a few more after the second national championship.
Fast forward a a few years. Who will Muschamp lose? DJ Durkin gets a lot of respect, and he has been our best continuity. He has also recruited some of the best players. Some other program might want to pluck him. I know nothing about Dan Quinn's or Jeff Dillman's allegiances. How apt are they to leave, and how hard will it be to replace them? In only a year there are heavy rumors of other teams eyeballing Brent Pease. Imagine what would happen after next year if the Gator offense were ranked in the top 100!
The other SEC powers are undergoing similar issues, and it is only a matter of time before the SEC drops from being the top conference to one of the top conferences.
Fast forward a a few years. Who will Muschamp lose? DJ Durkin gets a lot of respect, and he has been our best continuity. He has also recruited some of the best players. Some other program might want to pluck him. I know nothing about Dan Quinn's or Jeff Dillman's allegiances. How apt are they to leave, and how hard will it be to replace them? In only a year there are heavy rumors of other teams eyeballing Brent Pease. Imagine what would happen after next year if the Gator offense were ranked in the top 100!
The other SEC powers are undergoing similar issues, and it is only a matter of time before the SEC drops from being the top conference to one of the top conferences.
OK--I won't quibble over the details here--you're right, after all: there ARE too many unknowns to be that confident about the finer discrepancies between "top Conference" vs "one of the top conferences"...I'm sort of counting on Pease showing a sense of honor, loyalty AND long-term smarts, though: stay here, actually carry out the plans and promises he made and see it all through, and the pay-off for EVERYONE is huge, career- and otherwise--for Pease himself most of all. The fact that it'll probably be the most fun he ever has, ultimately, an offensive specialist with access to the best of everything and a free hand to create his dreamteam, playing his offense, his way, while the Head coach takes the heat--a big boy playing in the biggest sandbox with the shiniest, newest and most expensive toys--that's a bonus that only sweetens the deal.
(You know, all of this is "objective rationale" for something I can more honestly express in "gut level" terms:
"Man, I damn well HOPE we don't lose PEASE now, too...!")
(You know, all of this is "objective rationale" for something I can more honestly express in "gut level" terms:
"Man, I damn well HOPE we don't lose PEASE now, too...!")
Coaches leaving for bigger paychecks is not a lack of honor. I would quit my job now for $500k per year as UK's OC.
...Yes, but THAT was ALWAYS out there...and because that is so, Pease was specifically ASKED that coming in--privately, I'm sure, but I'm talking about PUBLICLY here, too...go back and look at what he and everyone else said when he came IN last year...NOT that this would be anything but "business as usual" (Has there ever been a more egregious version than the one Saban pulled in skipping college-to-pros then pros-to-'Bama even MORE directly contrary to explicit "sincere heartfelt personal" promises made to players and colleagues just days, and according to some, HOURS earlier to the final one?), but I guess I am hoping that in this case, our OC didn't come in here with a specific SEC-job, Kentucky (where he DID once coach, and has a "relationship" with the AD, it is said) in mind to "jump on" at first opportunity, never mind WHAT he promised. We REALLY needed continuity at OC, Muschamp had that figured into his next hire at the position and, aware of that "relationship" MUST have specifically asked him about it...Look, let's not get ahead of ourselves: All Pease has said is that he "would LISTEN to such offers, out of interest and respect, after the season--not before"...and all I'M saying is that (unless he were offered some over-the-top amount at the top end of the spectrum for ANY college Head Coaching-job, dwarfing what ANY Kentucky coach has ever gotten, even in BASKETBALL) I would expect him to keep his word and quietly pass...even when you read between the lines of Coach M's gracious support for "all our coaches" in general and Pease specifically in their "deserving fulfillment of their dreams and professional ambitions", you can discern a similar attitude--a sort of "don't do it unless you really think it's your best and last chance..."-warning buried in there underneath the seeming-relaxed support. These two can do great things together in the next few years--that hasn't changed, and I am certain they talked about exactly that when Pease hired on 10 months ago.
I'm gonna stick with all the reasons that support what in the end my GUT tells me is so: Pease will see THIS project he committed to through, and let the rewards that he is confident are to follow take care of themselves up the road--UNLESS the offer is just CRAZY-OVER-THE-TOP "too good to be true"...in which case THEN "for the sake of my family" DOES come to the fore, and to HELL with everyone and everything else, I suppose--'cause that IS the world we live in now.
Oh--and one more totally-off-the-wall-thing to throw out there:
What do y'all make of this "Tebow's turned his back on the Gators--Now recruiting for Meyer at tOSU"-story?
TT claims otherwise, now that it has hit the blogs and media Q-and-A whenever he's got a mike shoved in his face...
Here is MY take: Good-hearted and, when it comes to his "friends", probably a bit naive, I think he has been/is being manipulated by Urban Meyer in this regard...and though I love #15 and actually appreciate the way he has somehow retained his open-faced trust and loyalties through the shark-filled media and celebrity cesspools he now routinely wades through (even swims in the DEEP end), it is in moments such as this I begin to believe and understand his apparent lack-of-smarts--or at least subtlety of thought and/or insight as indicated by, for eg., his dismal score on the "Wunderlic" (I took it, just for chuckles, and it doesn't require a monster IQ, believe me)--I mean, he's around some real scumbags now...so maybe he should begin to recognize what clear traits such folks might share with his "old-friend" Urban, a smooth and treacherous manipulator with an overlain mask of shark-eyed "friendliness" as he brings him around and strokes both TT's own well-meaning desire-to-help-and-please and his tendency to see the good in everyone--and actually hadn't "realized"/allowed it to sink in that he had been used until NOW, when repeatedly asked about it...Let's see how he handles it from here on out: I'd like to think Meyer won't be getting such easy access or use trotting him out after this...He's a GATOR, not a "F*ckeye" OR a "Meyer-creation", after all.
What do y'all make of this "Tebow's turned his back on the Gators--Now recruiting for Meyer at tOSU"-story?
TT claims otherwise, now that it has hit the blogs and media Q-and-A whenever he's got a mike shoved in his face...
Here is MY take: Good-hearted and, when it comes to his "friends", probably a bit naive, I think he has been/is being manipulated by Urban Meyer in this regard...and though I love #15 and actually appreciate the way he has somehow retained his open-faced trust and loyalties through the shark-filled media and celebrity cesspools he now routinely wades through (even swims in the DEEP end), it is in moments such as this I begin to believe and understand his apparent lack-of-smarts--or at least subtlety of thought and/or insight as indicated by, for eg., his dismal score on the "Wunderlic" (I took it, just for chuckles, and it doesn't require a monster IQ, believe me)--I mean, he's around some real scumbags now...so maybe he should begin to recognize what clear traits such folks might share with his "old-friend" Urban, a smooth and treacherous manipulator with an overlain mask of shark-eyed "friendliness" as he brings him around and strokes both TT's own well-meaning desire-to-help-and-please and his tendency to see the good in everyone--and actually hadn't "realized"/allowed it to sink in that he had been used until NOW, when repeatedly asked about it...Let's see how he handles it from here on out: I'd like to think Meyer won't be getting such easy access or use trotting him out after this...He's a GATOR, not a "F*ckeye" OR a "Meyer-creation", after all.
I doubt Little Timmy has turned against the Gators. His interview indicated he would work out with Braxton Miller in the offseason, and he would reluctantly cheer for Meyer's team. His Twitter account is all cheers for Florida. Besides, there are limits to whay Timmy can do as far as recruiting.
There is something "unseemly", even "reeking-of-filth" about EVERYTHING "The Liar" touches these days, and the short version is that maybe TT is so deeply immersed in and surrounded by the stench of phoniness and false-friendliness in that media/celebrity world he now moves in he's gotten used to it, and has trouble recognizing it now (having moved in it MYSELF for all those years, I am trying to understand and cut him some slack--but either he GETS IT at some point, or I too will begin to question his smarts, at the very LEAST)...
BTW: I had heard that Stefon Diggs-story, and several similar tales coming from the recruiting trail last January--the ones about Meyer telling he and other highly-sought Gator prospects about our supposed "problems in the locker room", "problems" that, if true, HE was the one who picked, created and permitted-to-fester HIMSELF--and that this had already begun to surface while Meyer still had an office AT OUR ATHLETIC DEPT. (!)...and that it was only at this point that he was finally "cut off", his office closed and finally became persona-non-grata around our program (and only then publicly accepted the OSU Head Coaching position), and even THEN it was such a touchy and "oh that can't BE--NOT MY FRIEND URBAN"-topic among players, boosters and former colleagues that, with only Diggs', then slowly, other prospects' whispered 2nd and 3rd hand "he-told-so-and-so-who-told-ME"-type nature to the whole thing at that stage, coupled with angry civil-suit-related considerations then being bandied about, my source inside the program SWORE me to secrecy on this one--I mean, "..if you EVER want me to tell you ANYTHING ever AGAIN"-kind of secrecy--and I have been sitting on it ever since... I only finally got the go-ahead to talk about it openly when Diggs himself started talking about it recently (he's given it as the "final straw" reason he ultimately turned his back "on BOTH programs" after being 99% ready to commit to the Gators BEFORE Meyer's sudden flip-flop and wheedling), and then Mike Bianchi wrote his latest column spilling this and a LOT of things in talking about "The Liar"s most recent manipulative use of Tebow. Maybe now some of you here at GE better understand my longstanding mistrust, bordering on DISGUST, for Meyer-the-Liar...
BTW: I had heard that Stefon Diggs-story, and several similar tales coming from the recruiting trail last January--the ones about Meyer telling he and other highly-sought Gator prospects about our supposed "problems in the locker room", "problems" that, if true, HE was the one who picked, created and permitted-to-fester HIMSELF--and that this had already begun to surface while Meyer still had an office AT OUR ATHLETIC DEPT. (!)...and that it was only at this point that he was finally "cut off", his office closed and finally became persona-non-grata around our program (and only then publicly accepted the OSU Head Coaching position), and even THEN it was such a touchy and "oh that can't BE--NOT MY FRIEND URBAN"-topic among players, boosters and former colleagues that, with only Diggs', then slowly, other prospects' whispered 2nd and 3rd hand "he-told-so-and-so-who-told-ME"-type nature to the whole thing at that stage, coupled with angry civil-suit-related considerations then being bandied about, my source inside the program SWORE me to secrecy on this one--I mean, "..if you EVER want me to tell you ANYTHING ever AGAIN"-kind of secrecy--and I have been sitting on it ever since... I only finally got the go-ahead to talk about it openly when Diggs himself started talking about it recently (he's given it as the "final straw" reason he ultimately turned his back "on BOTH programs" after being 99% ready to commit to the Gators BEFORE Meyer's sudden flip-flop and wheedling), and then Mike Bianchi wrote his latest column spilling this and a LOT of things in talking about "The Liar"s most recent manipulative use of Tebow. Maybe now some of you here at GE better understand my longstanding mistrust, bordering on DISGUST, for Meyer-the-Liar...
