*Are "Offensive Rankings" Deceiving? Something to think about...(especially interested to read
Escambia94, on this):
Meanwhile: I'm watching this Longhorns-vs-Horned Frogs game a mile or so from where I'm sitting, over there in Darrel Royal Memorial Stadium, and it strikes me that maybe there is something wrong with the way they calculate relative offensive ratings...I mean, I'm guessing that the Texas offense is rated somewhere in the 30's--not great but seemingly a whole lot better (both in ranking and in the impression they give out there) than our Gator-"O", at least at 1st consideration, right?
But think about it a moment: You watch this Texas offense a quarter or so against a pretty good team, one that they should beat here at their own place though, and you see a fairly familiar pattern from this squad: at first going right thru' the TCU defense with a nice balance of 6-to-12-yard runs and 15+-yard-passes down well into their side-of-the-field, then throw deep--sometimes the receiver well open and underthrown, another into double coverage, etc., and that is the pattern I'm talking about: one-third of these drives ending incomplete and stalled at the extreme range of the FG-kicker with 4th and long--punt, OR risk turning over field pos. at least 1/2 the time; 1/3 intercepted when Ashe underthrows it; 1/3 complete and MAYBE settles for 3 or (50/50) maybe takes it in for 6; or maybe finds ANOTHER way not to score at all. Net result so far here: 4 drives, plenty of yardage production, total=3 pts. (Similar yardage from TCU has produced 14 pts).
Now, measure that against the poor-looking, even MORE poorly-ranked Gator offense, which actually can do everything that this Texas offense can do (we've SEEN it--I distinctly remember us hitting on each KIND of long gain, even TDs, at various times throughout this season), with penalties or dropped passes killing us every time. It ALSO at times seems that we wouldn't score any offense-points at ALL if not for Sturges and the kicking game.
And yet: we DO often run the ball effectively, especially as the game goes on: we appear to get stronger, while opponents all appear to naturally wear down, we DO tend to get SOME points (thanks to Sturges), and (except for the one loss against Georgia) we DON'T give the ball away--LEAST of all in our own end (and if we do, our tough "D" tends to bare down and snap shut when they MUST).
Texas is racking up the kind of yards that SHOULD manage enough points to win it, but they are ALSO making the kinds of consistent Big Mistakes that have gotten them beat, and beat badly, a couple of times already this season--and may well get 'em beat here tonight. Whether they DO pull it out somehow or not (they are clearly still close enough at-the-half--but it "feels" like they're gonna get beat), their overall stats will keep them in that "slightly above mediocre" range either way, but WOULD YOU REALLY PREFER THIS OFFENSE TO OURS?
I'm NOT talking about "future growth" or "upside potential": I mean just this season, here and now. OUR offense doesn't WIN games for us yet by ANY means, but it doesn't LOSE them, EITHER--and that IS one more reason why WE are 10-and-1 and #4, while a team like TEXAS may in fact be over-rated at #16.
(PS--The announcers are saying that "Texas MUST win this game to keep open their chance at a BCS game...", and I'm asking, "How in HELL can THEY, with multiple BAD losses in a favorably-scheduled season, and still have a shot at a BCS Game, while at 10-1 against the NCAA's "Toughest Schedule in the Nation", WE can only make it with a win over FSU?!!"
I know it has to do with tying for the lead in their "Big-compared-to-WHAT? 12" Division, but it's REALLY almost as lamely unfair as the leader of the "Miniscule East" still having a direct-road to the Orange Bowl...The BCS Bowls are marginalizing THEMSELVES!
PPS--I expect OUR team to show up with more urgency and determined enthusiasm than this Longhorn team did here tonight...I mean, they've had a "go through the motions/we'll win 'cause we're BETTER" attitude since this one started, and they've only gotten MORE lackadaisical as the game has worn on: This TCU team is showing how it's done: They came in here on-the-road, a BIG underdog, and outplayed Texas in every phase of the game. We're a team closer in talent with FSU, obviously, than TCU/Texas: Give US a 14 pt lead in the 4th qrtr. and I like our chances. Here's hoping that the 'Noles players are as over-confident as their fans!)