Good news! The Florida Gators will not lose this weekend! This would be a good time to look back at preseason predictions and see how far the Gators have progressed or regressed in the first quarter of the season compared to the competition. Based on the ESPN FPI trends, here is what we can see in the numbers and with our own eyes:
- Florida started in the preseason as a team with a tremendous upside despite the difficult schedule, which at the time was the hardest schedule in the country. Most projections had them finishing at 5.7 wins. By week 2 the projections starting to fall to 3 wins.
- #19 Miami is progressing nicely and is favored to win the ACC on the way to a CFP playoff berth.
- Texas A&M is performing above average and is surprisingly good with a freshman quarterback at the helm. They will likely hit 9 wins but miss the playoffs.
- Mississippi State was projected in the preseason to be as bad the Gators are now, if that makes any sense. They have slightly regressed. After all, the Gators beat them soundly.
- UCF has improved immensely from preseason predictions. Their FPI is in week 4 is higher than Miami's FPI in week 1. That does not bode well for Florida. UCF has a 59.8% chance of victory.
- #5 Tennessee has jumped from a very good team to an excellent team that could make a deep run in the playoffs. Tennessee has a 91.3% chance of victory.
- Kentucky has been inconsistent this season, but is still better than Florida. Kentucky lost to South Carolina but nearly beat Georgia. Kentucky has a 46.2% chance of victory. These were similar odds for Miami vs Florida, so I would not place a lot of money on this game despite it being the most winnable game on the schedule.
- #2 Georgia has been good but not great. Obviously they are better than Florida and have an 88.4% chance of victory.
- #1 Texas is the darling of the SEC right now. They keep getting better heading into their SEC schedule. They have a 96.2% chance of victory.
- #14 LSU has been good but not great, but they still have a 59.1% chance of victory.
- #6 Ole Miss is blowing teams out of the water. They have an 87.8% chance of victory.
- FSU is bad, but maybe slightly better than Florida. FSU started as the #10 team in the nation and was unranked by week 3. This game is still projected as a toss-up with a 50.8% chance of victory for Florida.
- Florida started in the preseason as a team with a tremendous upside despite the difficult schedule, which at the time was the hardest schedule in the country. Most projections had them finishing at 5.7 wins. By week 2 the projections starting to fall to 3 wins.
- #19 Miami is progressing nicely and is favored to win the ACC on the way to a CFP playoff berth.
- Texas A&M is performing above average and is surprisingly good with a freshman quarterback at the helm. They will likely hit 9 wins but miss the playoffs.
- Mississippi State was projected in the preseason to be as bad the Gators are now, if that makes any sense. They have slightly regressed. After all, the Gators beat them soundly.
- UCF has improved immensely from preseason predictions. Their FPI is in week 4 is higher than Miami's FPI in week 1. That does not bode well for Florida. UCF has a 59.8% chance of victory.
- #5 Tennessee has jumped from a very good team to an excellent team that could make a deep run in the playoffs. Tennessee has a 91.3% chance of victory.
- Kentucky has been inconsistent this season, but is still better than Florida. Kentucky lost to South Carolina but nearly beat Georgia. Kentucky has a 46.2% chance of victory. These were similar odds for Miami vs Florida, so I would not place a lot of money on this game despite it being the most winnable game on the schedule.
- #2 Georgia has been good but not great. Obviously they are better than Florida and have an 88.4% chance of victory.
- #1 Texas is the darling of the SEC right now. They keep getting better heading into their SEC schedule. They have a 96.2% chance of victory.
- #14 LSU has been good but not great, but they still have a 59.1% chance of victory.
- #6 Ole Miss is blowing teams out of the water. They have an 87.8% chance of victory.
- FSU is bad, but maybe slightly better than Florida. FSU started as the #10 team in the nation and was unranked by week 3. This game is still projected as a toss-up with a 50.8% chance of victory for Florida.
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | 10.1 (5.7 wins) | 4.4 (3.4 wins) | 4.4 (3.6 wins) | 3.4 (3.1 wins) |
| Miami | 9.6 | 15.5 | 14.3 | 17.9 |
| Samford | -15.0 | -15.0 | -15.0 | -15.0 |
| Texas A&M | 13.6 | 11.3 | 10.8 | 13.4 |
| Miss State | 3.5 | 6.4 | 5.7 | 0.4 |
| UCF | 6.2 | 10.4 | 12.0 | 12.7 |
| Tennessee | 16.6 | 20.2 | 21.8 | 24.4 |
| Kentucky | 6.2 | 8.6 | 2.8 | 5.2 |
| Georgia | 26.8 | 29.6 | 26.8 | 23.7 |
| Texas | 22.9 | 25.8 | 27.4 | 28.5 |
| LSU | 14.6 | 11.4 | 10.2 | 10.7 |
| Ole Miss | 12.0 | 17.9 | 20.1 | 22.7 |
| FSU | 15.1 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 4.4 |
