SEC expansion and the Florida Gators

[Escambia94]

This year marks the first SEC expansion since 1991-1992 when Arkansas and South Carolina were added, the conference split into two divisions, and the conference championship game was added. Here we are in 2012 and the SEC has added Texas A & M and Missouri, and a bowl game pitting the best Big 12 and SEC teams that are not in the 4-team NCAA playoff.

Florida came out ahead back in 1991. They had strong teams in the 1980s until NCAA probation, and climbed back to the top after probation ended building off their reputation from four years earlier, and Spurrier came home to do great things. Now in 2012, who comes out on top?

I think Alabama wins out on this one, at least for a couple years. They have lots of momentum from two MNCs in three years, the best coach in the country, and a stable coaching staff. They also have built a monster recruiting machine. The final piece to the puzzle is that they have avoided NCAA sanctions that plagued them in 1995, 2000, and 2009.

Florida is a couple years away from challenging the top dog. We need an upset or two over Bama in order to steal some thunder from them. We also need to assert ourselves against the newcomers, aTm and Mizzou.

I think Florida can at least get to the top of the SEC east, and into the SEC-Big 12 bowl in a couple years, maybe starting next year. Maybe starting this year with upsetting Alabama or LSU.

 

[Leakfan12]

I think they have a decent chance at the SEC East this season though USCarolina and UGA will be tough opponents in the division.

 

[Escambia94]

I agree. In the short term, Florida needs to beat USCe and UGA. My guess is that we will beat one, but not both this year. Assuming we recruit some offensive weapons for next year that are better than theirs, I can see Florida building up for the long term goal of beating LSU and Alabama. Those two SEC West opponents have been reloading very well year after year.

 

[DRU2012]

Escambia94, Leakfan12
While this season's outcome is still somewhat murky (when I came up with that "9-3/+or-1" prediction early this spring, I had no idea exactly where those likely losses would come in the schedule--and still don't, but I stand by that range-of-outcomes), my take on the next couple of years pretty much squares with both of yours', except I am a little more optimistic in how far I see us coming so fast: in my view, even given that accelerating improvement, E-'s realistic analysis of Tide-strength makes beating them next season still a true upset, if it happens...However, no matter what outsiders think or say, we'll be ready to beat anyone else who makes it to Atlanta in 2013 (yes, that includes LSU), and 'Bama themselves by the following season. We may well still have to "settle" for one of the 2nd-tier New Year's Day bowl games this time around--if it already existed, I'd say the new SEC/Big12-Game was a realistic goal, same for next year too, probably...but we will in truth soon come to view it as a "consolation game", a let-down--as we should, if we are to be once more an elite program. No, by 2014 we'll be going after the Big Prize, in whatever form it manifests itself by then--we'll have some big wins before then--2 or 3 in a row at the right time could bring us a taste of that glory earlier than expected, but that is when I see us really beginning to dominate.

 

[Escambia94]

When I say "beat Bama", I mean in all phases of the game, starting with recruiting. They won the MNC twice in three years with an offense ranked around #20 to #30. Now they are landing the top offensive recruits. Florida will not beat Bama on the field until it gets better offensive players than them. Heck, even Auburn is snagging top offensive recruits. They can both be dangerous for another few years, even if we become top of the East.

 

[DRU2012]

When I say "beat Bama", I mean in all phases of the game, starting with recruiting. They won the MNC twice in three years with an offense ranked around #20 to #30. Now they are landing the top offensive recruits. Florida will not beat Bama on the field until it gets better offensive players than them. Heck, even Auburn is snagging top offensive recruits. They can both be dangerous for another few years, even if we become top of the East.

Hmm...a lot in that 1 short paragraph...I guess I was making the same distinction re "beating" the Tide, in my own way: ie. while we might manage to nip them in a "shocker" before then (however difficult, with our developing high-grade "D", a versatile offense that plays off a strong downhill running game, and a steadily toughening squad all around, it isn't completely out of the question), I agree it will be 2014 at the earliest before we truly begin to match, perhaps even overtake them "in all phases of the game", and can look to begin dominating any team we meet. As you say, in all likelihood we will both be similarly "dangerous" and compete annually for SEC-supremacy for 2 or 3 years before I believe the growing long term structural strength of the program Muschamp and Co. are building will assert itself. Then it will be our time, and ours alone, for some years.
The reason I can say this with some confidence is that we are getting those better offensive players, that this will have a snowballing effect (as it has at Alabama, which they are still capitalizing on), and it will therefore only continue to accelerate the process. What's different is the way this group is doing it, concentrating more on character, commitment and "fit" in building both team and program for the long haul. Though it is not as immediate a process as Saban's "grab every top-rated guy you can while you can"-approach, this is really going to payoff in a big way; we'll begin to see and feel the results this season--but that'll be just a hint of things-to-come compared to the years ahead as more and more of those "better players" fill out our roster. We are going to be a powerhouse of talented young men who want to be Gators, self-disciplined and self-motivated, determined and supportive of each other in pursuit of a common goal--that "MNC".
(As for that, E-, as a side note, here's a question for you: Will it still be "mythical" in your eyes if/when this deal/arrangement for a "4-team playoff-format" gets done? In fact, what do y'all think:
"At what point, with how many teams, does a "playoff" become truly a "National Championship", rather than merely a "Mythical" one?)