The Media, the Fans, and "Realistic Expectations"

[DRU2012]

OK, the annual slew of "Official College Football Magazines" are arriving/have arrived on the scene with the summer months, and the dramatic drop (in terms of both how far and how fast) in the apparent "relevancy" of Gator Football on that scene continues to manifest. Whether judged by individuals (only one Gator in any of 'em so far, Chris Rainey at "21st Best RB" on one) or squads (we're not considered much of a factor even in regional terms this year, let alone the national level) included on the various "Best of"-lists, it's clear that outside of Gator Nation at least, very little is expected of this team--not only THIS season but perhaps for some time to come, at least until we show signs both on the recruiting road and the playing field of a true resurgence, and these are reflected in our actual record.
What do y'all think? What are our "true realistic expectations" in 2011? I'm aware of all the valid questions that are still to be answered (beginning at QB, to the O-line, the D-line, new schemes on BOTH sides of the ball, and so on, and so on, and so on...). I'm also aware of all the real TALENT we have out here, untested in many cases, yes, overdue to really come into their own in others--but we ARE still a big, fast and potentially hard-hitting, highly-skilled unit with smart and ambitious coaches, something all those "folks out there" have either forgotten or ignored.
It all adds up to a "lean and hungry" team, flying under-the-radar with a chip on its shoulder. Personally, while I don't like being dismissed so quickly or easily, not after all the time and effort spent on that long hard road to reach a certain level of assumed respect, but when all is said and done I'd rather be UNDERestimated than overblown, especially in this situation.
I'm on record as being cautiously upbeat regarding our likely relative success this season, seeing it as an exciting year as we transition into "the Championship Team-to-be" that I think we WILL be by 2012...but on balance I expect a bumpy road, a bit of inconsistency (especially the first half-a-season or so) while we answer some of those questions I mentioned earlier--but I really resent outsiders making blanket judgments about us, and leaving us out of the discussion entirely is just sloppy thinking, I figure.
And anyway, it just plain BUGS me. I'd like to hear how Gators think and feel about these things.

 

[Escambia94]

I like not having a target painted on our backs. I say that as fans we should relax a bit and give Coach BOOM! one season of a" sub-par 7-5 season" before we demand undefeated seasons and national championships. We are not like South Carolina, favored against each of its 12 opponents. We are only favored by Vegas to win about 6-7 games. We have question marks on o-line, running back depth, quarterback, tight end that are harder to predict with a new system. I am okay with this...for now. It makes so sense to demand so much from a team that nobody knows. Under Meyer we all think we knew these players and coaches. None of us knows how well Muschamp will be as a head coach, because he has never done it. Some have assumptions on Weis based on his OC experience on an NFL team and HC experience in college, but how does that translate as OC in college? We don't know. We know nothing about the DC--this is his first stint as DC. Does Muschamp influence the DC? Does Muschamp divorce himself from Xs and Os of defense? Probably not, but we are not certain what to expect.

If I take off my Orange and Blue glasses and look at the team, we are destined for a 6 or 7 win season, with the potential to win 8. If I put the glasses back on, I think we hit 10 wins and surprise a few people with an NFL powered offense and an NFL caliber defense. Realistically, based on history, it may be in the middle of both--maybe 8 to 9 wins falling short of SEC East to a superior team at USCe. Next year we will reel in a top-3 class and break in some Muschamp recruits and may be loaded with talent, but we do not know enough to be like Florida State and assert that "We are back".

 

[DRU2012]

Taking your last point first, I'd prefer we just let our eventual return-to-dominance speak to the issue of when "We're back"; as Gators, we've never been the blowhards our demented "cousins" out I-10 have always appeared to be.
I like your take and overall conclusions as to the likely practical outcome, given all the trials and traps, E-..."relax a bit" seems like wise council, if any of us can manage it. I think you've put your finger on why the rest of the college football world have put us to the side in their thinking--and there is a certain logic to it, after all.
We just don't KNOW how far we have to go yet, let alone where we are in that process. Even with all the talent (both on the field and on the sidelines), the difference between a collection of promising parts that haven't yet gelled and us coming together as a team that plays with purpose is, in practical terms, razor thin: with coaching and chemistry, there comes a point where it HAPPENS, and the whole is greater than the sum of its components.
That's where WE have to get to, and it could be a bumpy road between here and there. How "bumpy" remains to be seen.

 

[Escambia94]

This is why it will be so exciting- -we don't know anything, but we are confident (maybe cocky ) enough to know that it won't be that bad. We should be wise enough to assume it won't be that good either, as in national or SEC champ. If I am wrong and it happens, be pleasantly surprised.

 

[CaliZona_Gator]

It's going to be a tough year. You can't blame the mags for not picking us. We will have lots of growing pains. But I find it nearly impossible to be as bad as last year, and so things are looking up.

 

[DRU2012]

It's going to be a tough year. You can't blame the mags for not picking us. We will have lots of growing pains. But I find it nearly impossible to be as bad as last year, and so things are looking up.

I'm with you. Our ultimate record at the end of the string may not be much better, but I don't expect NEAR the frustration or disappointment of last year's (directed-by-the-OC-but-fueled-by-Meyer's-"Bug-Out") fiasco. What was so painful and infuriating was to see us floundering, at every level, both plan and play, from top to bottom.
There IS some cause for hope: in fundamental ways, "Everything is new again." As Escambia notes, it is wise to be ready for the unknown and likely inconsistencies; hopefully we can take heart at signs that it's all part of a flexible plan to find out what we've got, what we need, and position this team for what it can eventually be.

 

[Escambia94]

At least this year we will have a built-in excuse for inconsistencies and frustrations. Last year there was no acceptable excuse other than Urban Meyer being sick or burned out, and Steve Addazio being overwhelmed. We will not know what really happened last year unless Buddy Martin updates his book on Urban Meyer with the rest of the story. I really do think that Coach Meyer just got burned out, which accelerated his health problems. It was not going to get any better, because he lost too many coaches and he became a liability. Look at the current staff. If Coach Muschamp were to get overwhelmed in his first stint at head coach, he needs only to confer with his OC, Charlie Weis, for advice on head coaching. Weis can get advice from Muschamp on the current affairs of college and SEC coaching. We have coaches that were former players right there at UF or in the NFL. With a year's worth of chemistry, this coaching staff is going to serve the Gator Nation very well.

I laugh at the detractors that compare the 2011 staff to the 2002-2004 staff. I may have covered this before, but this is the 2002 Ron Zook staff with their college and NFL coaching experience prior to the 2002 season [source: Wikipedia]:

• Ron Zook- Head Coach experience (0), NFL DC exp (2), NCAA assistant exp (20+)
• Ed Zaunbrecher- NCAA Offensive Coordinator/Quarterback coach experience (20+)
• John Thompson (American football)- NCAA Defensive Coordinator exp (19)
• Mike Woodford- Defense - NCAA DB coach (15)
• Jerry “Red” Anderson- Defensive - NCAA coach (20+ on smaller teams)
• Joe Wickline- Offensive Line - NCAA coach (20+ on smaller teams)
• Dwayne Dixon- Wide Receivers, GA or assistant (8); former Gator player
• Larry Fedora- Running Backs, eventually OC - approx 15 years as offensive coach, 2 years OC
• Jerry Odom- Inside Linebackers - NCAA defensive coach (2), high school coach (6)
• Tyke Tolbert- Tight Ends/Recruiting Coordinator - approx 7 years as assistant

Compare that to the Will Muschamp staff [source: coachwillmuschamp.com]:

• Will Muschamp - HC exp (0), NCAA DC (9), NFL DC (1), head coach in waiting (3...FWIW)
• Charlie Weis - NCAA HC exp (5), NFL OC (9), NFL offensive coach (6)
• Dan Quinn - NFL defensive coach (9), NCAA DL coach (5), NCAA DC (4)
• DJ Durkin - NCAA defensive coach (10)
• Aubrey Hill - NCAA offensive coach (15), former Gator player
• Travaris Robinson - NCAA offensive coach (5)
• Frank Verducci - NCAA offensive coach (25+), NFL offensive coach (7)
• Brian White - NCAA offensive coach (25)
• Bryant Young - NCAA defensive coach (2), NFL player (14)
• Derek Lewis - NCAA offensive coach (5)

There are similarities in coaching staff experience of the two staffs. Zook's staff even looks more experienced in some areas until you look at the schools where these guys coached. At least the youngsters on the Muschamp staff bring Super Bowl experience or Gator player experience.

 

[Leakfan12]

Well I hope this season is better last year (hopefully 9-10 wins) though S Car, Bama, and FSU might be losses.

 

[DRU2012]

As I say, one of the problems here, so many "unknowns", is also one of one of our strengths, in my view: we're starting fresh in so many ways...and as "E-94" implies, I'm betting we've got just the right kind of staff to do the most with what we've got (and to go get more--the one thing Zook and co. WERE pretty good at--the difference being THESE guys will know what they want AND what to do with it!).
Now, up 'til now I've avoided broaching one pretty glaring hurdle: our schedule, especially that 4-game stretch in October. For one thing, at first glance it's an "SEC-schedule", par-for-the-course in many ways, and no use complaining--but check it out: the particular teams and locations at that time and in that order without a break is a real gauntlet, one that the pundits are starting to take note of. Some are already calling it the toughest stretch in college football this year, and no doubt playing a part in others' assumptions regarding Gators' supposed continued difficulties.
Persistent whining about our scheduling notwithstanding (somehow post-season analyses ALWAYS put our schedules in the upper rankings of relative difficulty, so "screw 'em all!"), we are generally used to a tough road once we're into SEC-play--though some years things turn out tougher than others, and this may be one of those.
Even with the wins, its been a tough couple of years for Gators. The coaching fall-off actually began in '09, when lets face it deep down we all thought we should have won a second-in-a-row National Championship, leading into last year when ALL the "chickens came home to roost". While the program was hardly "left in shambles", there were messes left to clean up and some big holes left to fill. October will be upon us quickly, everything won't be fixed and fine, we'll take our chances and do our best.
Here's what I propose: no excuses now, no matter how that stretch (and the season) goes, and when things do go our way, whether now or later, we whoop, holler and gloat with wild abandon--it's not like we were "handed" ANYTHING!

 

[Escambia94]

Check this out. The Bleacher Report is not the best source of information, but we can attempt to rationalize our assumptions using a similar line of thought as this article:

1. vs Florida Atlantic - Let's face it. It will be a cold day in hell if we lose this game. This should be a good tune-up for JB4 and the rest of the offense. Win by blowout.
2. vs UAB - If the offense is not clicking by this point, expect similar results as 2010. Win by blowout.
3. vs Tennessee - New coaching staffs on both teams + better talent on both sides of the ball at Florida = good chance of a win for Florida in its first SEC contest.
4. @ Kentucky - No double threat QB at UK means no single threat to Florida's swarming defense. Call it a win and 2-0 in conference play.
5. vs Alabama - "The stars fell on Alabama", and the stars will still shine on them as Trent Richardson and Marquis Maze prove too much for the Gators. The good news is that their defense is quite young, but their team is a tad bigger than ours on both sides. We COULD win this one, but I see a loss here. It is debatable.
6. @ LSU - They won't get lucky two years in a row. Even with upgrades on offensive coaching they still lack the offensive talent to overcome our defense. Their defense will wreak havoc on ours, so I see a close win for the Gators.
7. @ Auburn - Outside the state of Alabama, nobody thinks Auburn can beat Florida or Alabama without Camburglar. I will call it a win for Florida, even though they have always given us trouble. There is a possibility that we overestimated Newton's influence on the team, but I doubt it.
8. @UGA - These guys are hard to figure out. They have the talent, but I guess they lack the coaching. Maybe seeing a former UGA player as our coach will motivate them to player harder. Or not. I see a win from UF.
9. vs Vanderbilt. Yeah, right. W for Florida.
10. @ South Carolina - I hate to say it, but Spurrier will have a chance to stake his claim as the king Gator by beating two of his successors in subsequent years. They have the experience and the talent to beat us. If only their QB would settle down. I call it a loss for Florida. Call me a pessimist.
11. vs Furman - Yeah, right. Win for Florida. Let's see what Jeff Driskel can do while we give JB4 some time to watch and prepare for the finale against FSU.
12. vs Florida State - Oh, this is a tough one. We can debate all day long about this one. Expect a loss, but he happy if we win.

I cannot see us getting past Alabama and South Carolina. Call me crazy. UGA and FSU are a toss-up. Hopefully we beat UGA and the loss to FSU will not hurt too bad. I do not see more than 4 losses, and I can see us winning 2 of the 4 questionable ones.

 

[Leakfan12]

I hope that FAU and UAB are easy wins because remember last year's team had trouble against Miami of Ohio and USF. Also hope Brantley improves otherwise Charlie won't be afraid to bench his @$$ for a freshman (he did that in ND in 2007).

 

[DRU2012]

Did y'all see where K C Joyner of "ESPN Insider" has picked John Brantley, yes, OUR "JB IV", as "Darkhorse Heisman Candidate for 2011"? Upon passing this along, "Swamp Things" notes how dubious a proposition this will appear to most Florida fans...can't argue with that, seeing as how I must be counted among "the dubious".
Look, I'm willing to grant that the system will better suit him, and that if anyone CAN restore #12's confidence and overall "game" it would be Weis, and God knows this is one area I hope to be proven completely and faithlessly wrong about, but we dare not hope for (let alone COUNT on) that dramatic a tale of redemption.
Joyner supports his view with some rather complex and arcane statistical gymnastics that don't greatly impress me--it's performance on-the-field WHEN IT COUNTS that is most telling, and given that as far as I can tell he has little more information in this regard than the rest of us who closely follow Gator football, I propose more modest expectations:
Provided #12 is able to recapture enough of the former confidence and leadership skills that once made him a prized recruit (and even appeared to make Cam Newton expendable!) and is able to run this offense efficiently, with a balance of running, mid-range passing and the occasional stretch-the-field long ball, our already-strong and soon-to-be-dominant defense will control the field, keep us in EVERY game, allowing us to win the ones we should and maybe steal a couple we otherwise might not have. If THAT comes to pass, E-'s predictions above sound very doable.

 

[Escambia94]

I know I have been critical of JB4, but he has the talent to be that darkhorse Heisman candidate. There seems to be something wrong with him, as if he is "broken". Can Charlie Weis fix it? I think so. Just enjoy the show. We just need to rely on defense until JB4 regains his confidence. There are two or three backups that will be accelerating that process for him.

 

[DRU2012]

Some sort of fly-under-the-radar-surprise from JB, the offense and in turn the whole team that gathers momentum as the season goes on would be a whole new experience for us--it's not very often that a team with as much access-to-talent as UF finds itself so quickly dropped , even forgotten by the "experts" this way...why NOT us, then, "shakin' up the WORLD"?
Just an idle, early summer daydream; what else is there to do to pass the still-no-football-doldrums?
No matter how things really go, it'll all come down to when-the-balloon-bursts. If we make it to the Alabama game before getting our first "L", don't embarrass ourselves even then and begin a new streak after that, this could be an exciting (if still likely a non-championship) season before it's done. Yup, E-'s ten-and-two above seems eminently doable, every bit a proud accomplishment in itself if we pull it off, given the circumstances, AND a real stepping stone to next year and beyond, when we WILL dominate and be chasing perfection once more.
I'm figuring that's about the BEST we can shoot for this year, and if we come up a little short, maybe drop a close one we "shoulda" won, well, we need to keep things in perspective, appreciate this team for what it is and will be, and enjoy the ride.

 

[CaliZona_Gator]

JB4 can have a great season, but there are too many playmakers this year in college football. Luck, Landry Jones, Trent Richardson, Lattimore, LaMichael James. Lots of big names.

 

[Escambia94]

9–2 (6–1 1st* SEC). 9-3 (5-3 6th SEC). 8-5 (6-2 3rd SEC).

Guess which record belongs to which 1st year Gators coach?

 

[Leakfan12]

Spurrier, Zook, and Meyer

 

[DRU2012]

Is that it? My first (albeit knee-jerk) reaction would be "Meyer, Spurrier, Zook", but caution (and a niggling "near memory" pushing at the back of my mind) tells me that's wrong--now I'll actually go look it up (and feel like a doofus).

 

[Escambia94]

It is Spurrier, Zook, and Meyer. I threw that out there just to show that Muschamp has some tough shoes to fill. If the pattern holds up, Muschamp's first year record will look like Zook's at 9-3, but middle of the SEC. That is not too bad for a first year. There are some parallels between Zook and Muschamp--both never HC'd before, both are following legends, both inherited very talented teams, and both have very good recruiters as HC. Muschamp has the unfortunate situation of the Gauntlet of a schedule, and lacks a Rex Grossman. Now that's a scary statement. Muschamp lacks a gunslinger that wins or loses games on the merit of his direct leadership on the field. Our defense is really going to have to step it up in order to make sure Muschamp does not wind up like Zook.

 

[DRU2012]

When you put it like that, well, I'm back to where I started last Feb., cautioning everyone (myself included--for exactly these reasons) about being patient and not expecting too much from this team record-wise in 2011.
My latest brush with optimism has been more a summer daydream than a realistic assessment of the likely outcome. In truth, I not only don't EXPECT it, I'd actually prefer to see Coach M, Weis and the rest do everything they can to find and develop the combination of talent, scheme and chemistry to get this team ready for what comes AFTER this season. The long term health and success of the program is what's on the line now (and has been since it began to veer off course back in 2009, in my view); if we have the right people on the sidelines, as I believe we do, they see and understand this. Yes, this will likely be a rocky ride, up and down, this year, but it doesn't have to be a wasted one. Use it right, and it can be the fire that forges the steel.