The Turning Point: How Big Is This Game, and What is/are Your Biggest Concern(s)?

[DRU2012]

The title pretty well speaks for itself, but here is "where I'm coming from" and my OWN resulting "Biggest Concern":
I just finished watching my second time thru' the LSU/S. Carolina game, meaning I have now watched each of OUR last two games twice, and each of the last two games of South Carolina and LSU twice.
I'm NOT going to break down all the things that I noted, discovered and was able to conclude that led me to what I am about to say--only that I have strong grounds for saying it, and I ask y'all to bare that in mind in considering the assumptions I make along the way.
South Carolina is especially vulnerable to a steady, hit-'em'-up-the-gut then misdirection-to-either-edge running game, we HAVE such a running game and it's helped to wear opponents down to eventually dominate and beat them in the 4th quarter. It will be ENORMOUSLY tempting to enter this game determined to go that route on offense, "win or lose" relying on our strength. Similarly, the assumption would be that on defense THEY will try to run on US. Taken together, we're thus looking for a pound-it-out, relatively low-scoring game, one where we believe we can make the necessary halftime adjustments and outlast ANYONE to win it in the 4th quarter.
Here is my concern: I don't think that's what Spurrier has in mind, at least early, not in our "Swamp". I think he's planning to try to hit us with a fast-break passing offense in the first quarter, take advantage of what he expects to be another one of our sluggishly slow-starts to get up on us at least a couple of scores in this manner, AND take the crazed crowd out of it, at least for the time being, by taking an early big lead if he can. On defense, they'll be geared to stopping our running game, practically AT ALL COSTS--they'll have one, even TWO extra "men in the box", if necessary selling OUT in order to prevent what happened against LSU from happening to them again. No one has seen a passing attack from us yet, and the assumption MUST be that we don't HAVE one--we certainly don't have much of anything "game-tested".
They will dare us to pass, that much will NOT be a surprise--but again, the temptation will be to game-plan from our known, well-practiced and proven strength, the power running game, into their presumed weakness, AGAINST the run, regardless. We cannot concede this. There are too many ways in which this can end up getting us out-maneuvered, leaving us short late on the scoreboard and by then having to try to do things desperately through-the-air that would not be nearly so difficult earlier as part of our OWN little "surprise", and will have the added benefit of breaking their "press" relatively early in the game--when our OWN unexpected short-to-mid-range passing attack will have a MUCH better opportunity to turn-the-TABLES on "the Evil Genius", after all.
I am completely convinced that this is actually the SAFEST way to go here: we will benefit offensively from somehow "breaking the press" against the run ANYWAY, and if I'm wrong about their offensive game-plan we adjust without too much penalty at halftime of a close game. If I'm right, we avert disaster, either ready for them and able to limit the damage, and/or find ourselves in a bit of a back-and-forth track-meet that we're more ready to compete in than we would have been if we assumed too much and found ourselves overwhelmed and knocked back on our heels from the start.
(Agree? Disagree? Some other "concern" entirely? Let's get it into it NOW, I figure--by Thursday night I'll be in gut-check, "I don't wanna THINK about it"/"Let's just GET to it"-mode...)

 

[NaffGutts]

Lattimore's bruised hip, now on the actual injury, I dont think its major. But to Lattimores mental block he's been dealing with, it's huge. This will be a factor and I expect some attempts, but no much production

Conner Shaw, he has a hairline fracture in his throwing shoulder. We have the speed to make him pay on a scramble, which will limit his.attempts to run. Under pressure, he forces the pass and opens oppurtunity for us to pick.

Weather, the forecast is 82 and sunny. This will play a factor into South.Carolinas stamina. Remember how many LSU players went down with cramping? That was a 6 o clock game.

Special Teams, our punter can flip the field if we get to Ace Saunders quick enough. I expect the excitement to trap him into trying to make punt return when it should be a fair catch. Hopefully our speed can force a turnover.

Field Goals, we can put points on the board from longer range. I think this.will play a factor in momentum and points.

Defense, we need to limit Clowney and contain Shaw. If we can get an early start with big stops, our Defense will pin their ears back and dominate SC's offense.

Offense, we need to run it hard and often. Also we need to utilize our Tight Ends with uncoventional plays, let them make plays with their speed and strength. Driskel needs to run it early at every oppurtunity he can, this will open up the passing game later.

We need our star players to rally the rest of the team and step up and make the play.

 

[NaffGutts]

Lattimore's bruised hip, now on the actual injury, I dont think its major. But to Lattimores mental block he's been dealing with, it's huge. This will be a factor and I expect some attempts, but no much production

Conner Shaw, he has a hairline fracture in his throwing shoulder. We have the speed to make him pay on a scramble, which will limit his.attempts to run. Under pressure, he forces the pass and opens oppurtunity for us to pick.

Weather, the forecast is 82 and sunny. This will play a factor into South.Carolinas stamina. Remember how many LSU players went down with cramping? That was a 6 o clock game.

Special Teams, our punter can flip the field if we get to Ace Saunders quick enough. I expect the excitement to trap him into trying to make punt return when it should be a fair catch. Hopefully our speed can force a turnover.

Field Goals, we can put points on the board from longer range. I think this.will play a factor in momentum and points.

Defense, we need to limit Clowney and contain Shaw. If we can get an early start with big stops, our Defense will pin their ears back and dominate SC's offense.

Offense, we need to run it hard and often. Also we need to utilize our Tight Ends with uncoventional plays, let them make plays with their speed and strength. Driskel needs to run it early at every oppurtunity he can, this will open up the passing game later.

We need our star players to rally the rest of the team and step up and make the play.

 

[DRU2012]

NaffGutts
So basically, NG, you don't really HAVE any STONG concerns...You give a number of fact-based points that suggest we already HAVE the edge, and that simply "doing what we do", what we've made work before to a certain extent in ALL games so far this season will get us the victory. I LIKE it--especially if it works out just that way--as well it might!...Except that the fellow on the other sideline with the visor and the headset knows all of that too--and may very well not oblige us. What happens if I'M right, and he is at this moment preparing an "October Surprise" to spring on a maybe-a-bit-too-complacent-and-cautious Gator staff and team, prepared themselves to "play the odds"? My point above is that a Gator team that comes in ITSELF prepared to pull a few surprises, set a trap for "the Trickster" in case he figures on putting us in a bit of a hole and force us to THEN try to "break character", try and do things he ASSUMED we hadn't planned for and therefore weren't really prepared to respond to well? Do things "MY" way, what I'm hoping are at least being considered and prepared for possible use onfield this Saturday regardless, after all, and it won't MATTER what Mr. Spurrier has in mind: we'll be ready to beat his team either way--"pick yer poison"!
I'm not saying we change our whole approach, throw out what we're clearly good at that has worked well for us so far, only that we add a few wrinkles on offense and plan to USE them. Shift the emphasis slightly from "tie-up-and-counter-punch as the fight goes on", to "Take it to them early to neutralize an expected aggressively-swarming opening round from THEM". After that, we can go either way as we see fit--and bring it all around BACK to our style-of-play, wear them down and shorten the game if/when we have the lead.

 

[Escambia94]

Here are my top three points concerning the C0cks.

• Lattimore's injury. I agree with NaffGutts. He may have recovered physically, but mentally he has a way to go. As much as I want Lattimore to get healthy, I would rather not have him turn the corner against the Gators. I think that if the Gators stack the box and bang him around as he pops through the hole, the Gators can break him down and make him afraid to emerge from the 2-gap. This is what Florida did to LSU--they bullied the bullies and imposed their will on the adversary after the opponent showed all their cards in the first quarter.
• Shaw's decision making. In the Air Force we call the decision making process the Observe-Orient-Decide-Act (OODA) Loop. LSU showed that an aggressive, physical, bruising defensive line and a quick, hard-hitting secondary will get into Shaw's OODA Loop and force him to make mistakes, doubt his skills, or second-guess his coach. If the Gator defensive front can disrupt the QB's timing, deter the deep strike passing, and deny the short yardage 1st down/touchdown, the Boys from Ol' Florida will emerge victorious.
• Clowney's vulnerabilities. Clowney is a beast if you let him use his ability to gain pursuit angles and tackling posture. If you run right at him, he falls apart. As long as Gillislee runs up the gut right at Clowney, his skills will be nullified. Clowney will probably gobble up Driskel if he runs around the edge, unless the Gators prep the battlefield with some trickeration--play action, misdirection, and Wildcat.

Here are my top three points concerning the Fightin' Gators.

• Free Gilly! This was the mantra all last year. Last year they did not use Gilly, and Rainey gained 132 yards to Demps' 33, but he did not score a TD and the Gators put the ball on the ground twice. Let Gilly pound the rock, bruise the defense, and control the clock.
• Don't leave points on the board. The Gators settled for field goals, because they could not sustain drives in the air or on the ground. The C0cks beat the Gators 12-17 with under 300 yards of offense. The Gators cannot let this happen. This year's C0cks will be better than last year's, so the Gators had better step it up. Whether by sea, land, or air, the Gators will probably need 350-400 yards of offense to beat the C0cks.
• Don't let the C0cks do to the Gators as they did to the Leghumpers. The C0cks beat Georgia in the same Florida has been beating its opponents. Let's not let them do that to the Gators. Let the Gators do to SC what they did to LSU--dominate the line of scrimmage, minimize mistakes, control the clock, and take care of the ball. Against Vandy, the Gators did not dominate the LOS and committed several costly penalties and barely got by the pesky 'Dores. The Gators will need all of those phases to work in order to beat the former #3 team.

 

[NaffGutts]

@ DRU2012, about your comments about Spurrier knowing what we got. I don't think he does, 2, 3, 5, 7 years ago, yes he knows the type of team we are. But this year's team is something even we havn't seen the Gators do, Run Heavy? If the Ol Ball Coach is thinking he knows the "Gators" all to well then he will sadly be mistaken when we run it down his teams throat. I think Gilly will cause some serious wear and tear, we just need the Offense to be productive for 2 reasons, put points on the board, and keep their Defense on the field as much as possible, beat them down in the trenches and the more we beat them down, the bigger the gaps get.

again, I'm predicting 27-10 Gators

 

[Dale J. Rodriguez]

My Game Plan Strategy:

Offense - Open the game up with playing action pass in the first two to three possesions. Allow some short throws on WR flares or TE's on Crossing Routes. They will be putting an extra body in the box, and we need to make them pay for it. Jeff can throw the football, we just have to give him a chance to show up. In addition to PA, Let GILLISLEE RUN WILD! The run is our core strength; we can execute our running game, while mixing up the passing attack; Clowney is the only DE on their team who is a big threat against the run.

The Offense also needs to have more TD's period.

Special Teams - Keep doing what yall do. But Andre I am gone need you to start returning some more kickoffs back and get your head in the game. You are critical to a victory in this game; if he can deliver us good field position that is a going to be a positive for us. Please tackle ANDRE SANDERS!!!

Defense - Man up and play hard. Lattimore got a swag problem and so does Connor Shaw, I will put our secondary against any WR corp in the country, and those boys are going to deliver. Andre Sanders is not a match up problem if Shaw cannot get him the ball. The Dline and LB core, just need to continue to play fundemental FB and just keep doing their job. I am going to need my gator Dline to see the backfield more this saturday.

Coaching - Coach Boom, Pease and Quinn keep it simple; mix it up; and remember your playing against Spurrier defense has always been his weakness.

Prediction 14 - 7 - Florida.