2022 Post-Schedule Summary

[DRU2012]

No one else here has said these things, so I will:
That deflated feeling is well earned and well-deseved.
We faded in (what was for this team) typical fashion down the stretch.
All the worst tendencies reappeared, even excalated. Poor tackling, poor discipline (bad penalties), little consistency on EITHER side of the ball, and NEVER as a TEAM; one squad seldom "bailed out" the other--the whole way this season played out seemed designed to not just disappoint but to EXCRUTIATE.
I don't feel a closer examination in greater detail is warranted; at this point it would only amount to an exercise in masochism. This one, the whole damn SEASON, overall was just painful in its effect on us.
And here's the thing: We are NOT going to be out-recruiting, to the point of out-TALENTING the Georgias or Alabamas for some seasons AT BEST.
That means that in the meantime, any real relative improvement to our ability to compete, and to start some transformative rise will rest upon COACHING, teamwork, discipline and SCHEME, as much as any ongoing presumed recruiting and portal moves...
And though we've seen SOME of this, once again it hasn't been consistent, nor has it been throughout the team: one squad will apparently adapt and perform well for a while, but not the others at the same time. Never. Similarly, we've seen improvement in certain areas between the 1st and 2nd halves, but not teamwide.
This worries me. I don't want to hear explanations. Gotta see improvement, ON THE FIELD. Period.
Yes. We must give Billy Napier time. "Time and room", as he was promised. But HE must begin to show us results. This is a huge off season; we can anticipate a lot of turnover in personnel...but that cannot be the ONLY changes. No matter WHAT those are (or at least appear to BE), we won't be sure of THOSE until NEXT SEASON'S team takes the field.
There'll be lots of "signs"; we'll have much to talk about through the coming months, but no matter what in fact happens and how it all LOOKS from out here, like it or not, judgment will depend upon ONFIELD RESULTS.

 

[Escambia94]

I have been tracking the 2022 expectations here: https://www.gatorenvy.com/threads/2...i-and-win-probability.20948/page-3#post-90236

I will re-summarize here:

• The objective data model predicted a 6-6 (3-5) season, which is what we got.
• The subjective fan emotion model predicted an 8-4 (5-3) season, which was a dumb idea.
• The only real surprise was swapping Texas A&M for Vanderbilt as wins and losses.

Opponent	FPI	Model Prediction	Manual Prediction	Actual
Utah Utes​	46.02%​	Utah 32, Florida 30 (1-0, 0-0)​	Utah 24, Florida 21 (0-1, 0-0) ​	Florida 29, #7 Utah 26 (1-0, 0-0) ​
Kentucky Wildcats​	49.27%​	Kentucky 27, Florida 21 (1-1, 0-1)​	Florida 31, Kentucky 27 (1-1, 1-0)​	#20 Kentucky 29, Florida 16 (1-1, 0-1)​
South Florida Bulls​	97.92%​	Florida 45, USF 10 (2-1, 0-1)​	Florida 42, USF 10 (2-1, 1-0)​	Florida 31, USF 28 (2-1, 0-1)​
@ Tennessee Volunteers​	7.81%​	Tennessee 36, Florida 24 (2-2, 0-2)​	Tennessee 30, Florida 24 (2-2, 1-1)​	#11 Tennessee 38, Florida 33 (2-2, 0-2)​
Eastern Washington Eagles​	98.00%​	Florida 48, EWU 10 (3-2, 0-2)​	Florida 38, EWU 20 (3-2, 1-1)​	Florida 52, EWU 17 (3-2, 0-2)​
Missouri Tigers​	76.69%​	Florida 35, Missouri 21 (4-2, 1-2)​	Florida 34, Missouri 23 (4-2, 2-1)​	Florida 24, Missouri 17 (4-2, 1-2)​
LSU Tigers​	24.26%​	LSU 42, Florida 32 (4-3, 1-3)​	Florida 31, LSU 24 (5-2, 3-1)​	LSU 45, Florida 35 (4-3, 1-3)​
Georgia Bulldogs (Jacksonville, Fla.)​	7.20%​	Georgia 52, Florida 32 (4-4, 1-4)​	Georgia 32, Florida 17 (5-3, 3-2)​	#1 Georgia 42, Florida 20 (4-4, 1-4)​
@ Texas A&M Aggies​	33.00%​	Texas A&M 38, Florida 21 (4-5, 1-5)​	Texas A&M 38, Florida 24,(5-4, 3-3)​	Florida 41, Texas A&M 24 (5-4, 2-4)​
South Carolina Gamecocks​	63.50%​	Florida 32, South Carolina 21 (5-5, 2-5)​	Florida 30, South Carolina 27 (6-4, 4-3)​	Florida 38, South Carolina 6 (6-4, 3-4)​
@ Vanderbilt Commodores​	78.10%​	Florida 38, Vanderbilt 21 (6-5, 3-5)​	Florida 38, Vanderbilt 21 (7-4, 5-3)​	Vanderbilt 31, Florida 24 (6-5, 3-5)​
@ FSU Seminoles​	32.60%​	FSU 36, Florida 27 (6-6, 3-5)​	Florida 21, FSU14 (8-4, 5-3)​	#16 FSU 45, Florida 38 (6-6, 3-5)​
​	51.20%​	​	​	​

 

[DRU2012]

I have been tracking the 2022 expectations here: https://www.gatorenvy.com/threads/2...i-and-win-probability.20948/page-3#post-90236

I will re-summarize here:

• The objective data model predicted a 6-6 (3-5) season, which is what we got.
• The subjective fan emotion model predicted an 8-4 (5-3) season, which was a dumb idea.
• The only real surprise was swapping Texas A&M for Vanderbilt as wins and losses.

Opponent	FPI	Model Prediction	Manual Prediction	Actual
Utah Utes​	46.02%​	Utah 32, Florida 30 (1-0, 0-0)​	Utah 24, Florida 21 (0-1, 0-0) ​	Florida 29, #7 Utah 26 (1-0, 0-0) ​
Kentucky Wildcats​	49.27%​	Kentucky 27, Florida 21 (1-1, 0-1)​	Florida 31, Kentucky 27 (1-1, 1-0)​	#20 Kentucky 29, Florida 16 (1-1, 0-1)​
South Florida Bulls​	97.92%​	Florida 45, USF 10 (2-1, 0-1)​	Florida 42, USF 10 (2-1, 1-0)​	Florida 31, USF 28 (2-1, 0-1)​
@ Tennessee Volunteers​	7.81%​	Tennessee 36, Florida 24 (2-2, 0-2)​	Tennessee 30, Florida 24 (2-2, 1-1)​	#11 Tennessee 38, Florida 33 (2-2, 0-2)​
Eastern Washington Eagles​	98.00%​	Florida 48, EWU 10 (3-2, 0-2)​	Florida 38, EWU 20 (3-2, 1-1)​	Florida 52, EWU 17 (3-2, 0-2)​
Missouri Tigers​	76.69%​	Florida 35, Missouri 21 (4-2, 1-2)​	Florida 34, Missouri 23 (4-2, 2-1)​	Florida 24, Missouri 17 (4-2, 1-2)​
LSU Tigers​	24.26%​	LSU 42, Florida 32 (4-3, 1-3)​	Florida 31, LSU 24 (5-2, 3-1)​	LSU 45, Florida 35 (4-3, 1-3)​
Georgia Bulldogs (Jacksonville, Fla.)​	7.20%​	Georgia 52, Florida 32 (4-4, 1-4)​	Georgia 32, Florida 17 (5-3, 3-2)​	#1 Georgia 42, Florida 20 (4-4, 1-4)​
@ Texas A&M Aggies​	33.00%​	Texas A&M 38, Florida 21 (4-5, 1-5)​	Texas A&M 38, Florida 24,(5-4, 3-3)​	Florida 41, Texas A&M 24 (5-4, 2-4)​
South Carolina Gamecocks​	63.50%​	Florida 32, South Carolina 21 (5-5, 2-5)​	Florida 30, South Carolina 27 (6-4, 4-3)​	Florida 38, South Carolina 6 (6-4, 3-4)​
@ Vanderbilt Commodores​	78.10%​	Florida 38, Vanderbilt 21 (6-5, 3-5)​	Florida 38, Vanderbilt 21 (7-4, 5-3)​	Vanderbilt 31, Florida 24 (6-5, 3-5)​
@ FSU Seminoles​	32.60%​	FSU 36, Florida 27 (6-6, 3-5)​	Florida 21, FSU14 (8-4, 5-3)​	#16 FSU 45, Florida 38 (6-6, 3-5)​
​	51.20%​	​	​	​

View attachment 789

(Re "what was data-predictive and shoulda been expected"...)
Maybe so, but I will stick with what I still see as the over-arching point I raised here:
In the end, we must go by the ONFIELD results--how it HAPPENED, how it looked felt and in most cases failed to evolve...and these can only be properly refuted by what we see of the same IN THE FUTURE, as I hope I made clear.
And that "future" has already began. For the moment, all we can do is settle back and SEE WHAT HAPPENS from here.
I assume there is a plan: "If this happens, we'll react by going after X, hoping to accomplish Y", and so on. Further judgment on OUR part must wait until we begin to see and evaluate NEXT season's "onfield results". If the just-completed regular season's schedule (and for that matter everything up to it the previous TEN YEARS OR MORE) has shown us anything, it is that the forces of change are so complex and interconnected that at a certain point you just have to "get the right guy"--and then "Let it ride!", hope that we got it RIGHT this time:
"You pays yer money and you takes yer chances!"

 

[Escambia94]

(Re "what was data-predictive and shoulda been expected"...)
Maybe so, but I will stick with what I still see as the over-arching point I raised here:
In the end, we must go by the ONFIELD results--how it HAPPENED, how it looked felt and in most cases failed to evolve...and these can only be properly refuted by what we see of the same IN THE FUTURE, as I hope I made clear.
And that "future" has already began. For the moment, all we can do is settle back and SEE WHAT HAPPENS from here.
I assume there is a plan: "If this happens, we'll react by going after X, hoping to accomplish Y", and so on. Further judgment on OUR part must wait until we begin to see and evaluate NEXT season's "onfield results". If the just-completed regular season's schedule (and for that matter everything up to it the previous TEN YEARS OR MORE) has shown us anything, it is that the forces of change are so complex and interconnected that at a certain point you just have to "get the right guy"--and then "Let it ride!", hope that we got it RIGHT this time:
"You pays yer money and you takes yer chances!"

I am not sure what you are trying to say here. Dan Mullen was fired because he recruited good kids who were too slow, too stupid, or too lazy to win an SEC championship. 61 of those slow, stupid, or lazy kids are still on this team with all new coaches. Those are the 61 idiots you are complaining about. The kids that Napier brought in were all top notch performers. As a matter of fact, O'Cyrus Torrence scored a perfect grade as an offensive lineman! Both of Napier's running backs relegated Mullen's running backs to the bench! The receiver that Napier brought was the only one who could catch a football! How was Napier supposed to turn the program around in one year? Logically this team was a) going to suck and b) win at most half its games. Granted, I let optimism seep in and I projected 8 wins, but my model projected 6 wins and I ignored it.

On your point about on field results, go check the video analysis showing that in many occasions the offensive and defensive schemes were correct, but were executed so poorly that it looked as if it were drawn up by a high school coach. Granted, Napier did bungle some decisions with timeouts, but that could be because he is trying to do too much and he needs to delegate the OC/QBC/PGC tasks or at least share them.

Think back to the Pell years, not the Mullen, McElwain, and Muschamp years. We are fortunate that Napier won 6 games in such a massive rebuild. For comparison, in 1979 the Gator program had been languishing for about a decade. Dickey only finish ranked twice (1973 and 1974, #19/NR and #12/#15 in Coaches/AP poll). That is an 11-year rebuild, and it took him 6 years to win an SEC championship (which was immediately stripped). Napier is in year 1 of a 12-year rebuild.

Here is some more data. Meyer's last class was ranked #1 in the nation, and after all his recruits graduated or transferred that class ended with an adjusted ranking of #5.5 (not accounting for adjustments of other teams, which likely would keep Meyer's class around #1 or #2). Muschamp's class rankings bounced between #3 and #12, but when factoring in graduations, transfers, suspensions, expulsions, and medical retirements those class rankings drop precipitously between #6.5 and #55.5. McElwain's classes bounced between #9 and #21, but after adjustment ended up between #17.5 and #60.5. Mullen's classes bounced between #7 and #12, but those figures were boosted by transfers. Once we factor in the "flop rate" of those transfers (none of them really panned out), his "post adjusted ranking" drops between #38.5 and #62.5!

In short, we have to give Napier 3-4 years to really evaluate his coaching ability, because some results are not apparent for that long. Not only is Napier stuck with 61 of Mullen's recruits in 2022, but also with replacing 4 years of Mullen's recruiting plus the recruiting of other coaches that Mullen grabbed transfers from.

Year	Head Coach	Class Rank	Adjusted Rank	Post Adjusted
2010​	Meyer​	1​	5.5​
2011​	Muschamp​	12​	23.5​	85.5
2012​	Muschamp​	4​	47.5​
2013​	Muschamp​	3​	6.5​
2014​	Muschamp​	9​	55.5​
2015​	McElwain​	21​	60.5​
2016​	McElwain​	12​	14.5​
2017​	McElwain​	9​	19.5​
2018​	Mullen​	14​	17.5​
2019​	Mullen​	9​	14.5​	51.5
2020​	Mullen​	7​	14.5​	38.5
2021​	Mullen​	12​	14.5​	62.5

 

[Leakfan12]

I went all out and said the Gators would go 10-2. That was a big mistake. A part of that was making the mistake that Tennessee wasn't going to have the season they did and even with that, it was close. Just wished they kicked those extra points and even with that, it would have been a long field goal to attempt for overtime. LSU I believe could have been a win if not for that BS roughing the passer penalty maybe. Vandy and FSU and maybe UK were winnable but the Gators played like garbage. At least they didn't lose to USF.

 

[DRU2012]

@Escambia94,
The simplest way to paraphrase myself above (and in this way respond to you) is to say that IMHO you are over-COMPLICATING this, E--...and you're still doing so: In point of fact, I am AGREEING with you regarding Napier, his performance so far and giving him "time and room" (I don't know how many times I've USED that very expression of late!).
If I sound argumentative, I apologize.
It's probably more a matter of my being tired of over-analyzing our failures after-the-fact.
You are saying, finally, that it's a matter of more than a decade of progressively poorer coaching (or at least larger sets of bigger mistakes), and at this point "61 idiots" the last of these foisted upon us.
I agree. And while I see signs that our young Coach is on track to reverse much of the worst trends, it is simply too early to really judge him OR his likely success. There are so many complexities to that path, and so much that remains to be seen, that I am worn and tired from simply watching and trying to evaluate the implications and what these tell us.
I admire and value your deep-diving analytical approach, but in the end it confuses as much as it reveals. Emotion gets the best of ALL of us, ultimately, to be sure; you may find a certain reassurance in bringing it all around to a kind of "affirmation of the original deductions you IGNORED", but I simply advise y'all return with me to the calm balance of "Wait and SEE"...
Is that so unreasonable?
MY "blind hope", likewise borne of emotion, never as strong at the end of LAST season as many others', in truth continues now--and if anything bouys me somewhat even now: I can see ways that we COULD be "better FASTER" than many here and elsewhere seem to even dare harbor similar optimism for.
I am hardly COUNTING on it...it is just one more possible facet of ""Gotta wait and SEE!".
There are so many variables, some brand new and that much MORE difficult to factor in.
As you so well describe, there is far too much that will take time, need turnover in personnel and require a complete "reprogramming of team psyche", too much of all of which LUCK will play its part in determining how soon it will be accomplished, that predicting--or worse, COUNTING on any of it--would be futile, even ridiculous. So:
"Let's wait and see."
I really hope that clarifies my position as we close out discussion of the regular season's results, and where it appears to leave us vis a vis "THE FUTURE".

 

[Escambia94]

There is no over-complication @DRU2012. I have been doing analysis on this board for over a decade. That is why I am here. If I just want to spout opinions without looking at stats and trends I would just stay in Twitter.

You are free to post what you want and how you want, but I have organized my posts and the thread discussions so we can go back in time and understand what was going on.

 

[DRU2012]

Hey man--You are taking me totally the wrong way here.
Of COURSE you have your own detailed, well-studied approach. You lay it out in a uniquely transparent manner, too--and I would certainly never disparage what amounts to a specifically valuable and stand out voice on our site.
So I will simply apologize and back off.
Perhaps it is ME that has over-stayed my presence (my welcome?) here at GE.
I will have to think on this.
For now, I APOLOGIZE for what I truly (if somewhat blindly) did NOT intend as an insult--or even a real criticism. It was more from a place of my own general frustration and criticism at ALL OF US. And it WASN'T aimed at you, Napier, or anyone in particular near as much as toward myself at times--and similarly, at Anthony Richardson!
In retrospect, I GET how directly personal you are taking my comments, directed at you in particular, after all. My bad. But I hope this at least lessens the explicit INTENT on my part.
There is so much that has been eating at me, growing in general disappointment as this season, with all its ongoing changes, developments and controversies that have evolved...the summarizing phrase you hear bandied about now is, "It's like the Wild West out there now!"--and that's an apt characterization.
One more thing: with the portal now turning into a FLOOD, rather than a flow, and all that has happened with OUR team and program in particular of late, there are now a number of areas where the portal offers a way, beyond that of whatever recruiting moves, flips, offers and maneuvers Billy is, can and will complete by NSD, to address pending spreading needs at depth on the D-line, WRs, and of course now likely QB (maybe starter AND backup)...and he needs to be SEEN moving to address these NOW. The good news: in this way a team and program can begin in this way to reverse its direction and begin to truly and effectively "rebuild AND contend" much quicker than ever before. In this way, then, it all amounts to practically the DEFINITION of "the K.I.S.S. principle"', and THAT is what I meant--for ALL of us to stop "over complicating" our current analysis. That's all.
I hope I have somewhat clarified myself, and taken whatever (unintentional) sting (or worse, insult--or even criticism) out of my comments leading up to this. I will now tuck my tail between my legs and slink off...

 

[Escambia94]

I will try to keep this down to two pictures that go at this quote:

We are NOT going to be out-recruiting, to the point of out-TALENTING the Georgias or Alabamas for some seasons AT BEST.

This crazy chart shows the recruiting rankings for Florida and select rivals. If you just look at the recruiting rankings each year you get the impression that Florida is not far off--just wait and see a couple years and Napier's plan will just work.

I simplified the chart and highlighted the really jagged line showing what each recruiting class would look like if we eliminated the players that transferred prior to the 2022 season and the recruits from Mullen's last class that accrued no meaningful stats. We lost to Kentucky and Vanderbilt because contrary to the popular narrative, we are not more talented than them. Maybe our starters are more talented, but the backups are not because 50% to 75% of the recruits from highly ranked classes between 2018 and 2021 are gone in 2022. The most talented players on the 2022 team were all Napier's. I cannot think of a Mullen athlete that performed well. How bad is the talent disparity? Once you subtract out the players who left (and do the same for the rivals), Florida's recruits are lower ranked than Kentucky's by far, and in some cases they are worse than Vandy's.

Napier has to recruit 20-30 high school kids each year, and 20-30 of Mullen's best leftover recruits for 2 more years before he has 70 of his athletes (maximum number to travel with for away games).

 

[DRU2012]

Don't look now, but the much-predicted "turnover" ("exodus"?) of/from our program has begun, with some once-promising underclassmen announcing entrance to the transfer portal, and some notable upperclassmen declaring for the pro-draft. There will no doubt be more.
Now, I understand (even somewhat welcome) the rationale that all this is part of a healthy trend that, if anything was to be expected:
They find (hopefully, for their sakes) better fits elsewhere, while room is made for Napier & Co.'s "team to be"--"Out with the old" (Mullen's) "...and in with the new", if you like.
However, we had been losing ground to that handful of "Elite" programs (several within our own conference) for several years, and for the most part have not substantially begun even CATCHING UP yet since. We'd need to land a few more bigtime flips and undecideds THIS time just to begin to draw even just in this cycle--then begin to surpass them in years ahead in order to get where we want to be.
Again, that isn't so "crazy" an observation, nor "wild" a hope. It better NOT be, don't y'all think?
It is encouraging to see the cool reality of how we have truly competed of late, as laid out above in E--'s graphs appear to show, and in so doing be able to see that we are not as far behind at the moment as we might have thought.
But it doesn't change the challenge, the work ahead...There remains a "talent gap", and though COACHING (along with discipline, conditioning and team cohesion) is a large part of the formula for gaining on, eventually PASSING the very best (we know who they are right now), it begins with the guys we bring in: The bottom-line make-up of THE TEAM. (I'll spare you that cute little summary saying, the one that goes "It's the Jimmies and Joe's, not the blah blah blah..." It's BOTH--but right here and now we are talking about the RAW MATERIALS with which a Coach and staff build and mold a team to greatness.
It is a PROCESS. One that doesn't happen overnight, though it's final emergence can sometimes APPEAR to manifest relatively quickly--even from one season to the next.
But that "process" begins much earlier, with a program and philosophy of team-BUILDING:
Ours, that of our still-"new" Head Coach and his staff, really gets its first full chance NOW, as they bring in "their guys" and begin to truly shape the team and program's FUTURE.
And that STARTS with who and what compose the actual components of this team, its talent and CHARACTER.
I don't think it's possible to overstate the importance of the next few months, this particular "OFF-season" to this Coach and program.