GameDay: Sat., Oct. 20--Gators vs. Gamecocks in The Swamp

[DRU2012]

So much on the line, little more to say, at this point--with ESPN set up there in the middle of the campus (THAT was a trip for me, watching students hurrying between classes, etc. behind them on a Friday afternoon, so MANY memories flooding back from that particular set-up...I assume on Saturday they'll go back to their usual location outside the Alumni/Press side-of-stadium, near Fraternity Row) and focussing so much attention and discussion on this one, it's almost to a point where I am personally at the "over-fill"-mark in terms of all the hype here: I am ready for us to GET TO IT--and it's only 4am!
That may just be me, though...I'll head home and crash for a few hours, get up and "assume-the-usual-position" in front of my Mac and HD and get to it with y'all a little before Noon or so. I'm sure between us we'll have some things to toss around by then...meanwhile, here's the Gameday Thread for anyone-and-all to get rolling, with or without me.
For now, a couple of general Q's to throw out there:
How do you FEEL about this one?
"Which way WILL we go?", and "Which way SHOULD we go?", in order to have our best chance to WIN here? For example: Should we come in staying with this "tough-running, wear 'em down and win with toughness and DEFENSE in the 2nd half", or should we make some changes, plan on opening things up EARLY and put THEM on their heels, not waiting to see if "what we've done 'til now" is enough, or gets us in a hole because of what THEY do in anticipating our previous tendencies?

 

[DRU2012]

(Btw-@FrozenGator--between that guy at half-time in your stadium there in Winnepeg kicking that FG-for-a-car, then MISSING the longer one for a million bucks--it was LONG enough, just wide-right...you could tell he'd been practicing, and tho' he took it in-stride, he's gonna kick HIMSELF all over the field later--SO CLOSE--...THAT made it to ESPN's "Friday's Top Ten Highlights" countdown, and it wasn't even the highest-RANKED highlight coming out of that game: a couple of rankings higher was a CATCH from the CFL game that halftime kick came from, a pretty acrobatic bit of magic on the part of the Toronto Argonaut receiver--your Blue Bombers won the game, though, by a big score as I recall, so you can afford to be generous about this, right? Anyway, since y'all have TSN (The Sports Network) up there instead of our ESPN down here, I thought you'd get a "kick" (yeah yeah, bad pun) out of knowing how much attention your team and home stadium got on American TV, primetime nationwide...Hope you see this AND can spend some time with us here today: Not sure how this game is going out, and whether you'll have access to it up there...I THINK there's a good chance, either on CBS, who always has first choice on any SEC games, or ABC who, with their sister-network ESPN hosting College Game Day from Gainesville all late-week and weekend, may well pick up the feed for national broadcast if CBS DOESN'T, so if you are home or have time to hit a sports bar you SHOULD have access to it somewhere up where you are. GO GATORS!!!)

 

[Escambia94]

The Swamp Things of Florida will face a Fighting Chicken team led by Florida's very own Saint Steven Orr Spurrier. Both teams are near mirror images of one another in composition, scheme, philosophy, and statistics, but Florida has an interesting wrinkle in that they have proven many people wrong (including myself) by mastering the halftime adjustment. Here is my checklist to victory:

• [ ] Dominate the line of scrimmage. The Gators will impose their will on the adversary after the Cocks, Cocks, Cocks have showed all their cards in the first half. I would expect the Fighting Chickens to hold a 10-3 lead at the half based on the passing game, since their running game will be dependent upon former Gator commit Mike Davis thanks to injuries. Davis may emerge if he is emotional after playing against the team that supposedly spurned him. The Gators need to make him fear coming through the gap.
• [ ] Nullify the SC offense, focusing on their "center of gravity (COG)", Connor Shaw. The Gator defensive front will disrupt the QB Connor Shaw's timing in the first half, deter the deep strike passing in the second half, and deny the short yardage 1st down/touchdown in the 4th quarter. If the Gators execute the 3Ds, they can keep the C0cks under their average of 350 yards of total offense.
• [ ] Control the first half and make smart second half adjustments. The Mighty Gators will prep the battlefield with some trickeration--play action, misdirection, and Wildcat early in the game. If the running game is working, then play action will result in some surprising passing stats from Driskel. If the Cocks slow down Gilly (which I doubt they will), then Driskel will pick up the running load. Personally, I want to see Driskel emerge from this game with 200 yards passing and 100 yards rushing.
• [ ] Free Gilly! Let Gilly pound the rock, bruise the defense, and control the clock. Last year, Rainey ran for 132 yards against a similar Gamecock defense. If Clowney really is injured, then Gilly may run for 150 yards or more.
• [ ] Don't leave points on the board. Last year the Gators settled for field goals, because they could not sustain drives in the air or on the ground. The C0cks beat the Gators 12-17 last year with under 300 yards of offense. The Gators cannot let this happen. This year's C0cks will be better than last year's, so the Gators had better step it up. Whether by sea, land, or air, the Gators will probably need 350-400 yards of offense to beat the C0cks.
  • 200 yards in the air from Driskel
  • 100 yards by sea from Driskel running
  • 150 yards on the ground from Gilly running
• [ ] Dominate the line of scrimmage, minimize mistakes, control the clock, and take care of the ball. Against Vandy, the Gators did not dominate the LOS and committed several costly penalties and barely got by the pesky 'Dores. The Gators will need all of those phases to work in order to beat the former #3 team.

If the Swamp Things run the checklist, I see a 31-10 victory based on injuries to Lattimore (out) and Clowney (playing at 75%). This is an increase in my mid-week prediction of 21-17 with Lattimore in the game and Clowney being healthier. (This is also the first bold prediction I have made since 2010.)

The mighty Gators will need to keep doing what it does best--dominate the line of scrimmage, free Gilly, let Elam hit anything on the field that moves, crush the enemy, see them driven before us, and hear the lamentation of their fans!

 

[totenkopf13]

The cold front has finally arrived! 80 degrees at kickoff.

 

[totenkopf13]

My "it finally feels like autumn, well kinda" prediction is' Gators 27 Chickens 13.

 

[DRU2012]

InkedAdrenaline
DAMN--I was hoping for another 5-to-7 degrees: first of all, that's enough to really get to a team that hasn't been practicing in it...And second, it's MORE than enough to get inside their heads--the Gamecock coaches and players have already been talking about it, so ANYTHING that reinforces that idea will help to accelerate its effect on their stamina and play as the game goes on--and I'm not so sure that 80 degrees is enough to stress them that way...
Escambia94
Man, I am WITH you--and can really appreciate your REASONED approach to analysis, and how it leads LOGICALLY to a nice Gator win...
However, you seem to be picking us to do this WITHOUT any real shift to more passing in our offense, E-: You DO talk about a 2nd-Half adjustment, but unless you're assuming that actually making the passes we tried but DIDN'T quite complete the last couple of games (especially against Vandy) will be enough to put us in position to ultimately wear down and dominate these Gamecocks after the break like you suggest, I wonder if that'll be enough. As you note, this South Carolina team is very similar to ours in a number of ways, and with SOS on the opposite sideline, seeing OUR tendencies and with some health-related factors limiting his OWN (not to mention an inclination towards the passing game in the FIRST place), I personally expect some "trickery" from HIM "early and often", as they say. I think he'll try to seize an early, shocking lead to take our crowd out of it and force OUR offense, our QB (behind AND facing extra defenders "in the box"), to throw it more--not only to go against what is perceived to be his and our "main strengths" but to lessen the wear on their own D as the game goes on. It's a shrewd plan, if I'm right, and could WORK, at least to some extent--unless we manage some combination of beating-them-to-the-punch and throwing it OURSELVES early, take a shot long here and there, and otherwise breaking-their-press with an efficient controlled short-to-medium passing attack.
In this way we turn the tables on SOS and what has to be his best chance of beating us down in Gainesville today. If I'm right, the ONLY way we don't take this one is if we fail to seize the initiative ourselves in the 1st-half, LET them do everything they come in here trying to "surprise" us with even though we could (and SHOULD) see it coming, and stubbornly keep trying to make a completely unmodified version of "what's worked up 'til now" work throughout a disastrous first half that THIS time leaves us down 2 or 3 touchdowns and maybe HAVING to throw in the 2nd-half.
(Damn! Lee Corso is in the process of saying the same thing as I am here on the early portion of College Game Day--and he's an IDIOT..."Someone, especially in South Carolina's case, has GOT to get ahead by 14--that's GOTTA be THEIR plan early here--Gators , too, but they have more leeway in the 2nd half of a close game where they've already taken Spurrier's biggest punch")
...Well, I have been wrong before--repeatedly THIS year already when it comes to this "can't keep hammering on the same old game plan"-refrain--only to see this Gator TEAM make it work once again. Look, I'm not asking for a wholesale change away from the things that have "worked-for-a-REASON"...only a few adjustments NOW, BEFORE the game in anticipation of the kinds of things we can pretty well COUNT on this coach and team to anticipate and try to do against US--sort of make the kind of adjustments we've been so good at between HALVES, only this time between GAMES, based on what we've done and seen THEM do against a team we played the week before. Whaddaya think?

 

[NaffGutts]

My "it finally feels like autumn, well kinda" prediction is' Gators 27 Chickens 13.

whoa, very close to my call, great minds? i was calling 27-10

 

[Escambia94]

DRU2012 I address the passing game by predicting JD passing for 200.

 

[totenkopf13]

whoa, very close to my call, great minds? i was calling 27-10

Agree. Either one will do.

 

[Escambia94]

I love SOS, but I would not mind if the Gators ejected him from the stadium with a 41-14 score. Next best would be limiting SC to 100 yards of offense.

 

[Escambia94]

Lattimore walked in with a boot, but is moving fine in warmups. I smell shenanigans.

 

[miltongator]

Are you ready for some football?

 

[DRU2012]

Gotta LOVE it!!!

 

[DRU2012]

DRU2012 I address the passing game by predicting JD passing for 200.

Missed that--sorry E-...meanwhile, we aMUST get the TD here!

 

[DRU2012]

TOUCHDOWN PASS TO REED!!!

 

[DRU2012]

Man, THAT was HUGE early!

 

[Leakfan12]

Finally a hot start, how's that taste Spurrier?

 

[miltongator]

Woo Hoo!!

 

[totenkopf13]

Not catchable !

 

[DRU2012]

Lattimore walked in with a boot, but is moving fine in warmups. I smell shenanigans.

Yeah--I ALWAYS figured he was playing today, and that this was ALL smoke...Whew! I had JUST awakened, showered and tuned back in when they'd kicked off and everything went NUTS here (ALMOST another fumble deep)...NUTS--receiver was WIDW open on the QB scramble: That's THEIR "ace in the hole", just like ours is Driskel RUNNING with it. Now there's the interference call--but was it catchable? No foul!!!