Gator Bites - FLA vs UGA

[Dale J. Rodriguez]

Hey Fellas I wanted to start a weekly thread called Gator Bites, where we have small talk about the game during the game.

I was trying to make one during the FLA/USC game but my phone was clowning.

I will bump this back up next week. When we start our showdown at UGA.

 

[Escambia94]

As the resident statistics guy, I will start with numbers.

TOTAL DEFENSE

Rank    Name    Gm    Avg    Plays    Yds    Tds    YdsGm    Win    Loss    Ties    Natl
Rank
 
3    Florida    7    4.17    473    1974    9    282.00    7    0    0    7
 
9    Georgia    7    5.24    491    2572    22    367.43    6    1    0    47

As you may have guessed, the Gators have an edge on defense with the 7th-ranked squad in the nation, 3rd in the conference. The Leghumpers have the 9th-ranked defense in the conference, which is 47th in the nation.

Against SC I expected a close game since SC and Florida were built similarly in terms of offense and defense--at least on paper. I will go out on a limb in this case and guess that this will not be a close game.

TOTAL OFFENSE

Rank    Name    Gm    Plays    Yds    Avg    Tds    YdsGm    Win    Loss    Ties    Natl
Rank
 
2    Georgia    7    475    3408    7.17    38    486.86    6    1    0    18
 
11    Florida    7    453    2453    5.42    25    350.43    7    0    0    100

As you may have figured out by watching Gators games, the offense is not spectacular. Georgia comes in with the 18th ranked offense, compared to Florida's 100th-ranked offense.

I expect the Gators to run all over Georgia, and we may not get over 100 yards passing again. The lesson from the past couple weeks is that we should not be worried if the offense does not pass for 100. I would expect that the Gators will need to run for more yardage than they did against SC.

 

[Escambia94]

Since traditional statistics have not been useful in describing the Gators to this point, I decided to try comparative stats. Strength of schedule:
Florida # 11
Georgia # 132

Points for and against by common opponents:
(Tennessee, Kentucky, Vandy, South Carolina)

Georgia 135-106
Florida 150-48

Comparatively, the Gators have beaten tougher competition by wider margins and have kept games close. Georgia appears to go all or nothing on offense and defense. That can be dangerous if Aaron Murray beats our suspect CBs going deep.

 

[Dale J. Rodriguez]

Escambia I am not sure if our would call our CB's suspect, they had a fairly good game against that Tennessee team that torched UGA.

Taylor Bray was only 50% on competitions for the day and threw for a modest 257 yards with 2 TD's and 2 INT's at home. That was a pretty modest day for someone like Taylor Bray.

I am not saying that our CB's are the best in College Football but I do not think they are suspect.

I Do agree if they open up the passing game we are in trouble.

 

[NaffGutts]

I've seen a ton of Georgia fans hoping they lose the Florida game so they can get rid of their head coach. Seems a lot of people are unhappy with him and apparently an "embarrassing" loss in Jacksonville might move him out faster.

Anyway, and off topic, I finally got my 1st signed piece to start decorating my Gator room with. It's an 8x10 photo of Trey Burton diving with the ball. Talked the wife into letting me get a piece per month, as long as it doesn't exceed 50$ lol. I would have to "double up" months for expensive stuff. I'm happy with pictures though.


PS - about to start making my South Carolina highlight video. I'll post up the link when done.

 

[DRU2012]

Hey Fellas I wanted to start a weekly thread called Gator Bites, where we have small talk about the game during the game.

I was trying to make one during the FLA/USC game but my phone was clowning.

I will bump this back up next week. When we start our showdown at UGA.

Great idea all around, Dale...
Escambia94...And of course "the numbers" are as good a place as any to start: What's INTERESTING, though, using our Gators as the "test-case", some stats are more relevant, and shed light on what-HAS-happened AND what-is-LIKELY-to-occur. (Of course, even the ones that may not do EITHER are not nec. "irrelevant"--but I'll get to that in a moment)
E-'s first set of numbers, charted for offense and defense, show BOTH...while the second set "boil it all down": In most cases, the things we've been "better" than others at show where our success has been, and, measured against what Ga. has done against those strengths, it SEEMS we'll have the edge.
That "nugget" re UGA's "all or nothing-strategy" is hard to quantify, let alone spot, pull out and "factor in" in the first place , but it sure could be relevant! (Kudos for doing so--espec. for those of us who haven't SEEN UGA play yet this season) We can be reasonably sure that this will be part of the scheme Richt & Co. have planned against our otherwise dominant defense, and that our notoriously defense-minded Head Coach is aware of and has anticipated in various guises: Over the course of an otherwise well-played, evenly-officiated game in fair weather, it really does appear to be the only factor that disturbs the otherwise seeming inevitability of us wearing them down and taking control in the 2nd half. We'd WELCOME their trying to play us straight up, "mano-a-mano/hat-on-hat and let's see who has the better team, Homes..."--but at some point that'd break down ANYWAY: we just have to figure that some "surprises" will be a part of this one regardless. In this case it's a part of their game and maybe the only way they can win. I expect Quinn to have designed a defensive strategy that limits the exposure of our CBs, disguising help, and/or baiting Murray into throwing an INT or two into coverage he THINKS is solo/on-an-island but ISN'T.
Likewise, our offense may well be ready to throw more to offset points gained by a high-risk/high reward offense. One of those stats that "doesn't tell everything" has been those tracking our offense-thus-far going into the NEXT game--either in isolation OR in relation to the rest of college football. What has been important and relevant is something that (often by intention) isn't IN the stats until AFTER that "next game": Things we haven't tried or at least much relied on, but (as it turned out) had the potential capacity to do and attempted successfully enough to make a difference, have DONE so. Just because you haven't seen it yet doesn't mean we can't or won't DO it!
Having said all that, I am not as fearful that we'll NEED something "extra" to win this next game, just confident that we'll have something ready should it be necessary--in fact, have been readying some things we haven't yet shown for some weeks.
Dale J. Rodriguez Yes, this Bulldog team may come out trying to engage us in a track meet, Richt figuring that pits their strength against our "weakness"--but are they really? On defense, our CBs aren't "bad", just not as "shut-down" as the rest of our D; pressure up front and disguised coverages could turn tables there. On offense, loading-the box may be the only alternative to "slow death", but has its own risks: there's simply not enough evidence to say that Driskel and his improving receivers can't themselves carry the offense if called upon to do so.
These things are undeniably true so far about this 2012 Gator team:
-- We do what we have to do to win.
-- We adjust and dominate in the 2nd half.
These fundamental truths all rest on the same foundation: Preparation. It now pervades every aspect of attitude, behavior and performance in this program. It is the reason we have come so far so fast, and it is why we are all I think beginning to more and more believe in this team's strengths--and less and less worry about its weaknesses relative to the team we are about to play. We STILL must "keep eyes front", take it "one game at a time", but that's what I'm talking about here: I don't think we need to worry much about that 'cause it's part of who we ARE now.
And Muschamp wouldn't let them do anything else ANYWAY.

 

[Escambia94]

Aaron Murray was torching our pass defense as a young sophomore (even though he lost the game, statistically the Leghumpers beat the Gators). He gets better and better at the deep strike, even over the vaunted Jaylen Watkins. I have to poke at my buddy--he is Jaylen's uncle. Two years in a row, Jaylen was picked on for deep touchdowns. If Marcus Roberson gets caught one-on-one, the Gators are going to have a long day. Maybe the best thing to do would be to have Roberson "foul out" and get all the stinking personal fouls out of the way early as long as it puts the fear of God in the UGA receivers.

 

[DRU2012]

Escambia94 (lol) Not really an option, E-, but I suppose if the "stripes" are gonna go there anyway, it's a thought...or maybe we should "sacrifice" one of our bench-sitters and send him "in" to take a shot on his way by, a la that Tarheel-thug against Duke. I don't know, tho'--may be "the Carolina way", but it sure ain't "The Florida Way", and I doubt Chomp would approve...No, no, no--it just won't do. I'm pretty sure the idea is to cut DOWN on the personal fouls and the rest of the "stupid penalties".
OK--I understand and agree that their best plan is a wide open passing attack to grab the lead, going after our secondary early and often. On defense they'll just as likely try and take away our running game, force US to pass. Having read your other analyses, E-, I must ask: Are you REALLY more worried about them pulling this off than I am? I'm the "half-empty"-guy, the one who sees these things and goes in at best "hoping" we'll be able to respond, weather the storm--and though I see the danger, even likelihood of some early Bulldog success thru' the air, I am even more certain that Muschamp, Pease and Quinn see it as well, will have their team ready with plans to deal with what works and what doesn't--for both teams.
Let's assume this: The only way that UGA can win this game is to overwhelm us with their passing game. True or not, it is likely THEIR assumption coming in. They have a handful of evidence from LAST year's game, and stats this season based more on either what we HAVEN'T done, or the bare minimum that reflect what we have had to do in order to deal with opponents thus far, in completely unrelated situations. It's quite a gamble, a relatively easy possibility to anticipate and prepare for--block it, shut it down, and we can dictate play from then on. Maybe Richt sees it as their only chance--and maybe it IS...but if they come in with that attitude, play it that way, then it's "all or nothing" right from the start--and I like our chances: it means we're already in their heads, that once we absorb their "best shot", we can take over and wear them down--which we KNOW is our game.
I'm not conceding that we can't break their "press" if we have to. There have been signs (most of which aren't in the stats) that our passing game is far from "toothless", at the least is coming around--and I think we've played "possum" somewhat there as well. Overplay THAT hand and it could be YOU who find yourselves down multiple scores early, UGA. Either way, if we're right, the key will be absorbing an aerial onslaught, this "bolt from the blue" early--if it works we're in a fight; if it doesn't, well, the rest will be just "detail"...whatever they try after that, however they try to match-up with us, the game will be ours to win or lose, and I have no doubt what this team will do with THAT advantage.
Am I "way off" this time? Should I worry because I am NOT so worried? Y'all tell ME, Gators...Am I missing something?

 

[Escambia94]

I am worried about Murray's passing, our DBs getting burned, and penalties negating scores. Everything else I am okay with.

 

[DRU2012]

I am worried about Murray's passing, our DBs getting burned, and penalties negating scores. Everything else I am okay with.

That penalty thing could really hurt us, affect the outcome one of these games. (I think I already shared that stat-analysis that shows that "Teams with the most penalty minutes" appears to be the least relevant statistic in terms of the relationship between it and victory: ie. it seems no impediment to actually winning, as those teams with the highest such numbers tend to also appear at or near the top of lists of teams with the most wins...since it seems absurd to claim that there is a positive connection between penalties and winning, concluding that it is "irrelevant" seems the way to go, I guess) While it hasn't done so yet, enough TDs have been taken off the board and opponent drives extended to give warning: This happening late in a close one, OR killing momentum and/or taking enough pts-off-the-board to affect the game early, could be our Achilles heel.
Now: Do you believe that the "Murray-preys-on-our-DBs" plan is a powerful and lopsided enough advantage, in and of itself, to dictate flow-of-game and put us in jeopardy? Or, even as a part-of-plan (defensively along with that offensive strategy) of forcing/daring a passing-game on us, do they have the capacity to impose this ON us? The "DB-Question" is of course related to all of this. Baring in mind, of course, that OUR coaches are aware of ALL of these factors and have their OWN plans, options and counter-strategies--and that our TEAM has its own strengths, and has prepared for this game according to its own plan-to-win. Under Muschamp (and also regarding Pease's approach to offense) this is NOT a passive team--we come into every game with clear objectives, it seems, plus a ready willingness, even eagerness, to adapt, overcome and even take advantage of whatever the opposition shows its intention of trying to do. Is there enough of a talent UNbalance in these particular areas for all of that to be outweighed?
(I'm really asking these questions, E-, NOT trying to argue my point: I AM concerned with these "weaknesses", that YOU are concerned with it even more than I am, and am anxious to hear your views/arguments--with my OWN observations (/rationalizations?!!) in mind.)

 

[Escambia94]

DRU2012: After extensive research, I came up with the following statistic that makes me think that the Gators will win: 100% of all Georgia Leghumpers suck! (I had some beer tonight, and I am drunk typing this.)

 

[InkedAdrenaline]

I have a feeling we are going to see another scoreboard like the Gamecocks blowout when we play uga....

 

[DRU2012]

Escambia94, InkedAdrenaline

Alright--These are the kind of "scientific analyses" I can get my head around!

(Muschamp is answering Qs from a Gator-backed podium on SportsCenter, "...we're just focused on our preparation, for this game..."--Now it's Richt, only HE keeps talking about US, how "excited" we seem to be right now, how we seem to be "coming on"--You know, I think we really ARE already in his head...Now they're noting how the Gators are 10-and-1 in these games when both are ranked? And they end discussion with Herbstreet's proposal that, of all the top-teams playing ranked opponents this weekend, "These Gators may be about to make a major BCS-statement"?!! Hmmm...OK--I think it's almost time for me to go back to being the guy who WORRIES about things as Game Day approaches, for the sake of BALANCE--"It's a dirty job, but someone's gotta do it!" Just remember, along with Sat. night's "I TOLD ya so"s, don't forget to THANK me, too.)

PS Love that pic, E-

 

[Escambia94]

Here are more stats based only on SEC play. Note that they share four common opponents and that Florida has 6 conference games to Georgia's 5. I have highlighted in bold the advantage each team has.

Rushing offense:
Florida 277 ATT/ 1269 YDS/ 4.58 YPA/ 211.5 YPG/ 14 TD // advantage: Gators
Georgia 188 ATT/ 881 YDS/ 4.69 YPA/ 176.2 YPG/ 13 TD

Passing offense:
Florida 77-113/ 68.1%/ 819 YDS/ 7.2 YPA/ 7 TD/ 1 INT/ 148 RAT/ 136 YPG
Georgia 102-158/ 64.6%/ 1329 YDS/ 8.4 YPA YPA/ 3 INT/ 155 RAT/ 266 YPG // adv: Leghumpers

Rushing defense:
Florida 2.96 YPA/ .67 TD per game/ 97 YPG //adv: Gators
Georgia 4.02 YPA/ 1.4 TD per game/ 168 YPG

Passing defense:
Florida 5.4 YPA/ 0.5 TD per game/ 1.16 INT per game/ 93.2 RAT/ 178 YPG //adv: Gators
Georgia 7.6 YPA/ 1.4 TD per game/ 0.8 INT per game/ 131 RAT/ 213 YPG

Odds & ends:
Florida 3DO 41%/ 3DD 28%/ RZ offense 98%/ RZ defense 85%/ TOP 34+ minutes //adv: Gators
Georgia 3DO 43%/ 3DD 34%/ RZ offense 89%/ RZ defense 76%/ TOP 30 minutes

Summary:
You can see why I worry about that UGA passing offense. The Gators have performed well in all other phases of the game and match up well against Georgia. As long as the Gator secondary is disciplined, hard-hitting, and downright nasty, the Swamp Things will prevail.

 

[DRU2012]

Escambia94 ...and remember THIS: Muschamp & Co. are well aware that RICHT and staff see the same numbers and have almost certainly made these same "facts" the basis for their game plan...So, figure that "game plan" goes something like this: Go after our secondary, especially on the edges, toward the sidelines (outs, to eventually set up the release long), with the pass to set up the run later once they have an early lead; and on defense, see if they can match up with us with their normal front, but the moment we start moving the ball running start packing the box, the idea being to shut down the running game no matter WHAT, and "dare us to pass".
Now, I don't happen to think our secondary is THAT "bad" to begin with...and with some steady pressure on their QB, whatever advantage they THINK they might have disappears completely; take away THEIR passing game early and they have little choice but to stay at it, try to go with screens and draws to open things up while we shut them down and take control of the line of scrimmage. On offense ourselves, if they really DO overplay that "stack the line against the run" strategy, I am pretty sure that Pease has Driskel ready to take ADVANTAGE of the looks he'll get downfield, provided our line, which looks to be near-fully healthy again coming into this one, is able to give him a reasonable amount of protection--and of course THIS QB can make a defense pay, can do things with his feet even when pursued that can turn broken plays into decent-gains (not to mention his PLANNED runs--you can't cover EVERYTHING, and if you guess wrong...).
All in all, under most scenarios, I can see this Gator squad taking control of this game by the second half in exactly the manner that you say, E-: "disciplined, hard-hitting and downright nasty"--ALL THINGS BEING EQUAL...which, aside from (1) my nervousness in advance of such an important game, and (2) against a despised rival who ALWAYS has a puncher's chance in this one, with (3) half the crowd theirs, and even more of one this year (they ARE the #10-ranked team, after all)...all leaving just one thing I find myself REALLY concerned about:
THE WEATHER.
There is talk now on SportsCenter as of this afternoon/evening (Thursday) that there may be storm-warnings over the area the afternoon of the game. With us coming in on as good a roll, with as much of an advantage--practical, psychological and emotional--as we could have against an otherwise highly-ranked Georgia team (I really believe we're in their heads this time--that only tricks and "catching us off-guard" are what they figure they can do to beat us), the one thing we DON'T want is something like WEATHER becoming an "equalizer"...That's what it IS, and we've ended up on the wrong end of its effects all too often in my memory...I won't go into all the examples (ALWAYS against SEC-opponents) that come to mind--they're too painful, for one thing, and dwelling on negative details would violate my "rules of superstitious avoidance" anyway--but TRUST me, "the elements work the same on everybody" is no comfort when that means they cut OUR advantages down the same as theirs--not when we otherwise have MORE advantages coming in! If this happens, the only consolation will be its potential effect on the pass: wind and rain tend to affect the passing game most, of course, and usually in negative fashion--but this is a hit or miss proposition--both in terms of how a QB and his receivers handle it, whether its effects change over the course of the game, and who it affects how much at any given moment...It would SEEM to favor the running game, but there are WAY too many unknowns and unpredictables for my liking, regardless.
We finally come into the week of a HUGE game with more reason for calm assurance than could ever have been expected on the part of ourselves OR the team coming into this season, secretly feeling pretty GOOD about this match-up (DESPITE that it's against UGA, who broke our hearts repeatedly in the Gator Bowl/"Cocktail Party" during MY time at UF, now once again with us both ranked so high), and here comes a "WEATHER WARNING", courtesy of a late-season HURRICANE???
Pardon me if I drop my face into my hands, mutter curses for a moment or two, then turn my attention to creating some kind of "anti-Rain Dance" or at least something along the lines of a pacing back-and-forth, day-of-game prayer for "No rain OR wind screws THIS one up".

 

[Escambia94]

Here is a pump-up video to tide us over until the Gators beat the Leghumpers and NaffGutts immortalizes the victory with one of his videos:

 

[DRU2012]

Count on wind, at least--which theoretically threatens THEORETICALLY their plans more than ours--but I don't like it, don't like ANY unusual, impossible to fully anticipate-or-control "act-of-nature"...anyway, forecast for late-aft-into-evening in Jacksonville is windy, occasional "rain squalls", and how each offense handles/adapts to conditions will likely affect the outcome of a close game (and badly as ever that I'd love to see it, I am NOT ready to predict anything BUT "a close one".

 

[DRU2012]

BTW Dale J. Rodriguez : I DID notice your "ready-threads" (?)--at least I THINK that was the reason for you starting them all in advance for the rest of our season's scheduled-games, in case folks wanted to talk about them ahead of time?--but frankly I was surprised that you did it this way at ALL, Dale...After all, you were among the first to explicitly address this notion of "One game at a TIME" as the way you, along with our team, saw US approaching these games, and it turned out to be something we were ALL thinking about, or at least leaning towards, whether we realized it or not--anyway, the regulars here at GE seemed to grab onto the idea, and however these things work, this same "philosophy"/approach has quickly become widespread throughout Gator Nation, to judge by the various blogs and news-sites on the net. Like a joke you make up, or an idea that seems unique--then the joke is widespread, the idea suddenly discussed in different countries and languages--"Take it one game at a time", and its many variations, has become the basic shared warning/carefully-confident-approach to this season and our Gators' steady, growing improvement.
I figured you'd just start a new one the week of each game...maybe you simply don't share the "silly" penchant (among at least some of us) for staying with certain routines, to not f*ck with the "mojo" by, for example, "getting ahead of ourselves" by posting/discussing things up the road (eg. it just hit me a few days back that what I THOUGHT was a "scrimmage"/"gimme" game I thought we had on there when I looked at our schedule at the start of the season against "Louisiana something" was no "pushover" at ALL, especially THIS season: It's against Louisiana LAFAYETTE, a strong program having a FINE year. Like Bowling Green, who presented a tougher challenge than expected to start our season and have gone on to beat everyone at their own level, La. Lafayette are tearing UP most of the rest of their schedule ...so THAT game will be every bit at LEAST as much of a "trap" and a challenge as Vandy.
Anyway, I would not even have mentioned it 'til later, the week of that game, except that I just noticed all the threads ready-to-go: The reason I addressed this HERE, D, is simply more of that "silliness" I mentioned earlier: I hesitate to even have that later-game-HEADLINE, focusing on a future game, at the top of our Thread-list the week of THIS all-important confrontation. It's probably just me (and y'all are of course welcome to ignore MY weirdness, as usual, if so), but as far as I'M concerned, what's good enough for me alone in my office day-of-game is MORE than good enough in how I approach our shared experience here at GE.
If they DON'T get any participation meanwhile (and drop down the list, off the page accordingly), whether you "re-activate" these or simply start new versions, they're obviously a good idea, just going by the all-week back-and-forth here on this one, the first...so one way or another, no matter what, they're sort of your responsibility now, my friend (once again, "no good deed goes unpunished").

 

[Escambia94]

I watched bits and pieces of last year's game to motivate me for work this morning. One more day to Dawg-huntin' time! Woo!

Last year, the game was definitely winnable despite a soft, weak Gator team that netted -19 yards rushing. The Gators were up at the half 17-7, then the Gators let the Leghumpers score two TDs on 4th down conversions--both deep strikes that burned Jaylen Watkins and Pop Saunders. Saunders was out-jumped and Watkins was out-wrestled. Both had problems with getting their heads turned around fast enough, which is an issue against UGA's much taller receivers. Murray will win the jump ball game all day unless the Gator corners get their heads around and accelerate to the high point of that jump ball. These guys are so much taller than the Gator corners that only a heavy hit from Matt Elam would jar the ball loose, but Elam was trying too hard for the slobber-knocker hit.

Key stats from last year's game:

Time of possession: Florida 22:20 - Georgia 37:40.
The Gators are going to chew up over 30 minutes of clock this time behind Gillislee and Driskel's running.

Penalties: Florida 14 penalties /106 yards - Georgia 4/22.
The Gators have not really fixed this problem yet. The Gators are still among the most penalized in FBS, and in last week's game those penalties erased what could have been two more scores. The Gators need every point they can get against UGA.

Rushing: Florida 22 att, -19 yards, -0.9 YPC. Georgia 49 att, 185 yards, 3.8 YPC.
You better believe that the Gators will work on this one in this week's game. I fully expect the Gators to gain 250 yards of rushing against the Leghumpers' rather large defensive line just to show them up. Gilly is only 70 or so yards behind the conference leader despite barely totaling 100 yards in two games.

Passing: Florida 12 att, 34 comp, 245 yds, 1 TD. Georgia 15 att, 34 comp, 169 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT
Yes, Florida did out-pass Georgia last year and they did contain Murray for 74% of the game. The problem is that they let Murray jump-ball the Gators to death for the last 26% of the game and that Brantley was a seasoned, veteran passer that was going to dink-and-dunk the UGA defense with Reed and Rainey. This year, Reed and Burton will need to get those short yards, but someone needs to step up to get the big yards if the Gators are pinned deep in their own territory with little time on the clock. Last year, Reed was the deep threat with his 31-yard TD in the first quarter. Who will it be this year?

Misc: Last year Jeff Demps took a kickoff 99 yards to the house, but the team did not use that to get pumped up. The field goal unit was good at keeping the Gators in the game with a pair of 40+ yard kicks. The Gators also lost two fumbles, compared to the Dawgs' only having one turnover by interception.

 

[Escambia94]

DRU2012: I just realized that wind will be a factor. The winds are expected to be 30-40 mph sustained. That pretty much kills field goals and deep passes. That plays into the Gators' favor, but changes how the game will pan out.