History is not on Johnny Brantley’s side

[Escambia94]

Just for kicks and grins, I compiled the statistics of all the Gator starting quarterbacks from 1983 to today. In my search for "the answers" as to why the Gators look so bad on offense, I looked for statistics on offensive lines, wide receivers, and offensive coordinators. It turns out that other than perusing each and every media guide since the dawn of time there would be no way to compile those stats, so I focused on the quarterback. This makes sense. Other than the coaches, the quarterback is solely responsible for the performance of the offense. What do the numbers show? Well, they tell me that as of week John Brantley IV does not compare well against the other Gator starters, and that history is not on his side in terms of final win-loss record and season statistics.

As a starter, JB's passer rating is third from the bottom. Only Kyle Morris in '88 and Kerwin Bell in '86 have a lower rating. His passing yardage total is on track for being near the bottom as well. Note that in '86, Bell led the Gators to a 7-5, 4-3 record with four consecutive losses in October/November, three losses at home, and a 14-10 victory in the All-American Bowl. That was the last year that Florida lost to Vanderbilt. In '88, Kyle Morris led the Gators to a 6-5, 2-4 record that also included four consecutive losses and three losses at home. That was the last year we lost to Kentucky. What does this mean? Apparently there is a strong correlation between quarterback performance and team performance. I will not go into all the numbers, but trust me, history tells us that 2010 will rank as one of most disappointing years if I have to post this sentence as my end of the year commentary on Brantley, "In '10, Brantley led the Gators to a X-Y, 4-4 record with three consecutive losses in October, X losses at home..." I sure hope this does not happen, but history shows us that it if JB cannot improve his performance, the Gator team will not be able to improve its performance.

YR      QB		RAT	CMP	ATT	INT	PCT	YDS	YPA	INT R	TD	R ATT	YDS	YPA	R TD
1983	Wayne Peace	128.0	186	292	10	63.7%	2079	7.12	0.03	10	59	11	0.2	0
1984	Kerwin Bell	148.0	98	184	7	53.3%	1614	8.77	0.04	16	40	-5	-0.1	2
1985	Kerwin Bell	159.4	180	288	8	62.5%	2687	9.33	0.03	21	54	-218	-4.0	0
1986	Kerwin Bell	112.1	131	242	10	54.1%	1515	6.26	0.04	10	37	-148	-4.0	2
1987	Kerwin Bell	124.8	140	239	10	58.6%	1769	7.40	0.04	9	42	-184	-4.4	0
1988	Kyle Morris	101.9	84	167	13	50.3%	1217	7.29	0.08	3	35	-11	-0.3	0
1989	Kyle Morris	132.0	63	131	6	48.1%	1098	8.38	0.05	9	25	-5	-0.2	1
1990	Shane Matthews	139.9	229	378	12	60.6%	2952	7.81	0.03	23	72	-27	-0.4	4
1991	Shane Matthews	148.8	218	361	18	60.4%	3130	8.67	0.05	28	0	0	0.0	0
1992	Shane Matthews	127.0	275	463	16	59.4%	3205	6.92	0.03	23	73	-29	-0.4	2
1993	Terry Dean	146.4	118	200	17	59.0%	1651	8.26	0.09	17	43	24	0.6	2
1993	Danny Wuerrfel	146.1	159	273	10	58.2%	2230	8.17	0.04	22	40	-89	-2.2	0
1994	Terry Dean	155.7	109	180	20	60.6%	1492	8.29	0.11	20	0	0	0.0	0
1994	Danny Wuerrfel	151.3	132	212	9	62.3%	1754	8.27	0.04	18	36	-45	-1.3	0
1995	Danny Wuerrfel	178.4	210	325	10	64.6%	3266	10.05	0.03	35	46	-141	-3.1	0
1996	Danny Wuerrfel	170.6	207	360	13	57.5%	3625	10.07	0.04	39	63	-100	-1.6	0
1997	Doug Johnson	135.0	148	269	12	55.0%	2023	7.52	0.04	21	9	38	-185.0	1
1998	Doug Johnson	145.2	154	274	8	56.2%	2346	8.56	0.03	19	10	29	-66.0	1
1999	Doug Johnson	132.4	190	337	13	56.4%	2574	7.64	0.04	20	0	0	0.0	0
2000	Rex Grossman	161.8	131	212	7	61.8%	1866	8.80	0.03	21	27	-76	-2.8	0
2001	Rex Grossman	170.8	259	395	12	65.6%	3896	9.86	0.03	34	34	8	0.2	5
2002	Rex Grossman	121.5	287	503	17	57.1%	3402	6.76	0.03	22	58	-65	-1.1	1
2003	Chris Leak	132.9	190	320	11	59.4%	2435	7.61	0.03	16	68	-53	-0.8	2
2004	Chris Leak	145.0	238	399	12	59.6%	3199	8.02	0.03	29	61	79	1.3	2
2005	Chris Leak	136.5	235	374	6	62.8%	2639	7.06	0.02	20	105	81	0.8	6
2006	Chris Leak	145.1	232	365	13	63.6%	2950	8.08	0.04	23	77	30	0.4	3
2007	Tim Tebow	172.5	234	350	6	66.9%	3286	9.39	0.02	32	210	895	4.3	23
2008	Tim Tebow	172.4	192	298	4	64.4%	2746	9.21	0.01	30	176	673	3.8	12
2009	Tim Tebow	164.2	213	314	5	67.8%	2895	9.22	0.02	21	217	910	4.2	14
2010	John Brantley	117.4	172	282	7	61.0%	1746	6.19	0.02	8	45	-101

Brantley does not even compare favorably to his fellow Gator QB, Jordan Reed or other QBs running similar offenses. Granted, Reed had fewer plays at QB and the other teams do not have our atrocious offensive line. Regardless of the rationale, on Game Day, Brantley just does not stack up well to any starting Gator QB, or opposing QB running a similar offense.

		RAT	CMP	ATT	INT	PCT	YDS	YPA	INT R	TD	R ATT	YDS	YPA	R TD
John Brantley	117.4	172	282	7	61.0%	1746	6.19	0.02	8	45	-101	-2.2	0
Jordan Reed	125.17	14	26	1	53.8%	166	6.38	0.04	2	29	115	4.0	2
Chris Relf	120.25	78	147	4	53.1%	996	6.78	0.03	12	136	514	3.8	3
DeAndre Presley	150.7	158	252	4	62.7%	2066	8.20	0.02	17	124	727	5.9    11

Today's game will be a good sign of how far the Gators have fallen or how well they can band together in adversity. With a loss against Appalachian State, I would lay that blame on Brantley. With a victory and a great day passing, Brantley could avoid the ignominious fate of being ranked at the bottom of our Gator QBs, give us momentum heading into in-state rival SOW, and help restore pride to a team that is struggling to find a leader. Johnny Brantley needs to step up and take charge of his place in Gator history.

 

[TylerHooper]

nice post, lets hope for best

 

[DRU2012]

E-94, you've outdone yourself here. On it's own your thorough-going analysis is a stark warning, in B & W: while not completely, irretrievably hopeless, Brantley MUST step up his play across-the-board (and the play-calling must help him here, BTW) in order to avoid "going down in flames" (and taking the offense with him) as an historically under-achieving QB (read failure) at UF.

 

[DRU2012]

...Now, when you put it beside your statistical analysis of these two teams, we can begin to see both the dangers and the opportunities coming into this game--and that goes double for JB. So far he seems to be rising to the occasion, along with the rest of the team, who are helping him this time.

 

[Escambia94]

Just to illustrate the point again, JB's last pass was about 8 yards short. The receiver had to run backwards in order to haul it in and save JB's ***.

 

[Escambia94]

Okay. Back to back plays amplify the discussion. The defender blitzes and Brantley throws the ball rather low RIGHT AT HIM for a deflection. Next play, he "scrambles" in slow motion and falls short of the first down. Next play he fires it 10 feet high.

 

[Leakfan12]

E-94 can you also include Touchdowns as well? Please. I also on the box score Brantley caught a touchdown pass.

 

[DRU2012]

I remember that sequence...it was right about then that more of Brantley's weaknesses than his strengths began to take over his game--and you're right, his receivers too often had to bail him out today when they DID hit on (mainly short and middle) pass plays. When they didn't, or COULDN'T the pass was SO far off, it was a near- or full-disaster. I'm serious about this: it is simply a mistake, poor tactics (to the point of foolish, stubborn blindness) to leave Brantley in there once we're inside the redzone. Easy maybe to brush over it in an otherwise satisfying, lopsided victory, but #12's ineptitude in these situations was again well demonstrated.

 

[Escambia94]

E-94 can you also include Touchdowns as well? Please. I also on the box score Brantley caught a touchdown pass.

I'm not sure which browser you are using, but in mine there is a scroll bar where you can slide the box left or right and see the TDs. I will update this and put it in an article.

I remember that sequence...it was right about then that more of Brantley's weaknesses than his strengths began to take over his game--and you're right, his receivers too often had to bail him out today when they DID hit on (mainly short and middle) pass plays. When they didn't, or COULDN'T the pass was SO far off, it was a near- or full-disaster. I'm serious about this: it is simply a mistake, poor tactics (to the point of foolish, stubborn blindness) to leave Brantley in there once we're inside the redzone. Easy maybe to brush over it in an otherwise satisfying, lopsided victory, but #12's ineptitude in these situations was again well demonstrated.

Brantley ran the spread-option pretty well in the beginning, then all of a sudden the spread-option started looking like a spread, and finally it went back to whatever we have been running all year. With JB under center, we will not beat the School Out West unless JB runs the spread-option. I am not even sure the three-headed monster will work against them, but if it's executed well it could work. Those high passes will be pick-6s against SOW. I'm not convinced we found the formula that works, other than the very simple thing of executing in the trenches. That o-line is the best I have seen it all year. Pouncey was fired up. He had better be that fired up next week.

 

[Leakfan12]

Sorry I miss that, now I see it.

 

[Escambia94]

For those of you who missed it earlier in the season, I present the updated chart that shows just how much John Brantley IV sucks at quarterback (not factoring in all the excuses). I added in his Outback bowl stats. Even without his OBB stats, his loser ranking would not have changed. Out of all starting Gator QBs with a minimum of 100 attempts, JB4 ranks as the 11th worst QB statistically all-time, or the 2nd worst since 1970. He is only one slot above his high school coach on the loser scale, but Kerwin Bell had running backs to pick up his slack. NOTE: these stats do not take into account that modern-era passer (since about 1970) ratings have changed a lot.

What does this mean? It means that I refuse to back off John Brantley IV on how much it makes me sick to watch him play quarterback. If he beats out Driskel and Reed next year, he better friggin' walk on water!

1968	Jack Eckdahl	56	125	572	2	2	85.32
1968	Larry Rentz	55	105	533	0	0	95.02
1962	Tom Shannon	56	100	551	2	2	104.88
1977	Terry Lecount	62	134	848	6	6	105.25
1963	Tom Shannon	84	158	956	4	4	107.28
1972	David Bowden	108	229	1480	12	12	108.26
1971	John Reaves	193	356	2104	17	17	110.07
1979	Larry Ochab	98	185	1169	6	6	110.27
1970	John Reaves	188	376	2549	13	13	111.44
1986	Kerwin Bell	131	242	1515	10	10	112.09
***
2010	John Brantley IV	200	339	2061	9	10	112.93
***
1965	Steve Spurrier	148	287	1893	14	14	113.31
1980	Wayne Peace	91	180	1271	5	5	113.48
1973	David Bowden	62	113	711	7	7	115.77
2002	Rex Grossman	287	503	3402	17	22	116.28
2005	Chris Leak      235	374	2639	6	20	116.70
1997	Doug Johnson	148	269	2023	12	21	117.30
1981	Wayne Peace	159	273	1803	11	11	118.96
1992	Shane Matthews	275	463	3205	16	23	119.01
1989	Kyle Morris	63	131	1098	6	9	119.87
1999	Doug Johnson	190	337	2574	13	20	121.40
1967	Larry Rentz	80	140	1031	3	3	121.79
1984	Kerwin Bell	98	184	1614	7	16	122.11
2004	Chris Leak	238	399	3199	12	29	122.38
1993	Danny Wuerffel	159	273	2230	10	22	122.83
1998	Doug Johnson	154	274	2346	8	19	123.89
1978	John Brantley III	85	170	1334	11	11	124.33

 

[DRU2012]

I think Weiss takes one look at #12's "lowlight"-package, thinks "Drive Killer" and "MY rep riding on THIS guy?!!", and he pretty well requires that "walk on water" to even CONSIDER letting him run his offense.
As I said to a friend who was ribbing me about his "great work at Notre Dame", though we know he couldn't weather all the responsibilities and (even more important) EXPECTATIONS of being the Irish Head Coach, he's still a great offensive mind, and we KNOW that as OC he'll give his ALL to do something wonderful with the talent at his disposal here at Florida.
This is NOT going to be anything LIKE an Addazio-run offense, that much we CAN be sure of.

 

[Escambia94]

How can you catch flak on Weis' tenure at Notre Dame? His offense was always top-ten. It was his defense, or lack thereof, that killed him.

I have been reading up on Weis' offense, mainly because I was looking into Josh McDaniel's offense earlier this year--they are one in the same. It will be a good offensive scheme for most of our players. Unfortunately, Brantley can succeed in the Weis offense, at least on paper. Burton will have to change positions. He looked good at RB, WR, and TE. I don't know if Jordan Reed will fit (not that I get a vote), because his high school senior stats are not on the Internet. His junior stats hint that he should fit into the Weis offense if he wants to fight for the position. Driskel was listed as a pro-style passer, despite his many dual-threat tendencies. I assume he will fit right in. I have to assume that Tyler Murphy will don the headset or transfer. We also have a couple other QBs coming in. All that says is that competition for the starting spot in the new offense is wide open. The new OC has not seen how bad Brantley is, so he gets a fresh start. Weis will not judge his players on film--he will get his hands on him and see what he can do. My prediction is that if JB4 plays next year, he will adapt to Weis' offense well and win the starting role.

Another casualty to this regime change is the running back position. None of our favorite backfield runners are a good fit under the Weis offense. Even Gillislee is under-sized unless he displays some Emmitt Smith skills for the new coach.

In summary: if JB4 comes back, we will see him as a starter on opening day with a new backfield.

 

[DRU2012]

I am amazed that you feel that way about Brantley at this point E-. Judging ANY QB "on paper" is dangerous--in this case it is the height of hubris, and actually in the realm of "career suicide", in my view.
BOTH coaches, Chomp AND Weiss, will have taken a hard look at ALL the key positions, especially at QB and at Brantley in PARTICULAR before hitting the home-stretch of the recruiting trail--and LONG before going into Spring Practice. To be starting quarterback next season, Brantley would have to stay with zero promises and will have to WIN the job, straight up, over everyone else. That's the only way, I'm telling you.
They WILL have watched film extensively, and will know going in that this is a guy who looks good in practice, can dazzle when he knows he's wearing the "no-hit-jersey" or in "garbage-time", but who wilts under any sort of pressure, like when it's a real game. Even if he somehow wins the job, I believe he'll be on a very short leash; the moment he starts panicking, missing the proper check-offs, freezing up in the pocket and/or over-throwing everything in sight they'd best be ready to yank him QUICK, or face another wrecked season. Even with the strong "D" we all feel we'll have next year, a Brantley-bumbled offense puts too much pressure on ANY defense for them to overcome it with any kind of steady consistency...
Muschamp will ask Weiss to give him an offense in 2011 that DOESN'T do that, that DOESN'T lose games the defense otherwise sets up for them. It will be a time of transition and growth, and until Driskell is fully ready to blossom, we will require an offense that grinds things out for the most part, takes what's given to it and cashes in the redzone opportunities that the talented defense produces.
(This is the last time I refer back to 2010, hopefully, but think about it: If we had had an offense that could have managed THAT much earlier today we would have won EASILY, going AWAY!)

 

[Escambia94]

I am not saying that I would LIKE the conjecture that JB4 will look good with a Weis offense--I am saying that he will look good at first in practice and in the O & B Debut. This is where we will see what kind of coach Weis is. Will he admit his mistake when JB4 crumbles in a live-fire test, or will he be stubborn and keep throwing the kid to the wolves to see how he handles pressure? My Jedi sense tells me that JB4 will wilt under pressure, but not in spring practice with the red jersey and not in the first couple games against cupcakes like FAU and UAB. Maybe against UT. Hopefully before the UK game so the #2 can get some snaps in before that gauntlet of Bama, LSU, Auburn, and an angry UGA.

What I want is for JB4 to prove me wrong. What I think will happen is that the Jeff Driskel era might start mid-season. Speaking of JB4...I just might go watch him next week. I did not realize he was coming to San Antonio for the Under Armour All-American game.

 

[DRU2012]

What's he DOING there, anyway? I mean, unless there's a majority of Urban Meyer-clones packing the selection committee, all saying (imagine with a monotonal computer drone):
"John Brantley grades out a champion."
I mean, I can see why HE would want to be there, take a shot at upping his pro-prospects at LEAST in a showcase more in line with his comfort-zone--ie. the rules and the stakes support player-success rather than the stress of a "real" game; this is more like a "spring game" or scrimmage-test, the kind of thing he has always done pretty well at. No one should be fooled if/when he looks pretty good, and I doubt the new regime WILL be so moved.

 

[DRU2012]

PS My bad--I see the distinction in what you're actually WARNING of, not supporting. Sorry...

...And as we've agreed on before, I TOO would WELCOME him proving me wrong--but if he decides to give it a shot, he BETTER be "BETTER THAN EVERYONE ELSE", and keep it going that way...
Nothing handed to him, no excuses or rationales, "a VERY short leash", to be sure...

 

[Gatorfan24]

After looking over those stats, if he doesn't pick it up soon we are doomed for a few years.