Official Game Thread 2023 Week 11: Florida Gators at #18 LSU Tigers 11/11/23

[Escambia94]

Overview
Florida is coming off a 36-39 loss to Arkansas at home in overtime with a rather low chance of making a bowl game at 5-4 (3-3). The Gators face #18 LSU in Death Valley, a team that Florida has lost to 4 times in a row and where their record is currently 33-33-3 all-time. The Bengal Tigers are favored by 13.5 and the over/under is 63.5. LSU has an 87.5% chance of victory.

Comparison
LSU has the best offense in FBS, and the Gators do not.

	FLA	LSU
Passing	G. Mertz 221/ 299 2409 YD 17 TD 2 INT 159.0 RAT	J. Daniels 178/ 247 2792 YD 27 TD 4 INT 199.9 RAT
Rushing	M. Johnson 106 CAR 555 YD 4 TD	J. Daniels 102 CAR 684 YD 6 TD
Receiving	R. Pearsall 55 REC 773 YD 4 TD	M. Nabers 66 REC 1152 YD 10 TD
Total Offense	#49 3688 YD 5.53 YPP 32 TD 409.7 YPG	#1 4901 YD 8.1 YPP 52 TD 544.6 YPG
Total Defense	#44 3154 YD 6.00 YPP 26 TD 350.4 YPG	#97 3667 YD 6.24 YPP 32 TD 407.4 YPG

The past few games have been high scoring affairs with very little defense. The last time Florida won in Death Valley was in 2016.

	FLA	LSU
10/15/22 Gainesville	35	45
10/16/21 Baton Rouge	42	49
12/12/20 Gainesville	34	37
10/12/19 Baton Rouge	28	42
10/6/18 Gainesville	27	19

Prediction
Nobody in their right mind is going to pick this garbage Florida team to beat the offensive juggernaut that is the 2023 LSU Tigers. Try to enjoy the fireworks show as LSU lights up Florida 42-21.

 

[DRU2012]

I cannot bear to watch.
At the (infinitesimal) risk of missing an historic upset, I probably won't. Watch, that is.
Sorry.
Not much of it, anyway. First coupla minutes?

 

[Escambia94]

On the bright side I will be traveling this week and will not be able to watch the game.

 

[DRU2012]

If I watch any PART of it, I doubt it will be those "first coupla minutes" after all: More like a few moments later in the first or early SECOND quarter...see if we are holding our own, making a game of it.
HOWEVER, I must tell you all:
Instead of the usual recovery/reinflation of "hope and faith", drawing SOME relief from long experience with the way Gator teams have "SHOCKED THE WORLD" from time to time in the PAST, the truth is that THIS strange "BILLY BALL" squad has had more of a penchant for "BIG STUPID ERRORS" instead.
So instead of coming back at least "somewhat positive", if not outright "ready to ROLL", I must tell you that I am feeling just the opposite this time: I find myself DREADING the coming headlines, all the pending "bad news"...
I just have this somehow persistent, inescapeable feeling that despite all the reasons it shouldn't, WOULDN'T happen before 2026 or 27 "at the earliest", we are about to face those dismal headlines some Sunday or Monday morning quite SOON: "Billy Fired at FLORIDA!"
I SWEAR I am hoping against HOPE I am wrong--but I awoke to a starkly realistic DREAM of it this morning, and it has haunted the edges of my consciousness ever since.
Yes, it is PARTLY a feature of all the quite real headlines on Google and YouTube, pumped out there by both the usual exploiters who are hunting clicks--and even some of the shallow loud mouths who pose as upbeat, positive supporters in their podcasts when things are rising and it is EASY to ride the wave of "better times a'coming", but are oh so quick to switch to "Fire the Coach!" and "Lynch Him!!!" now, as these very real "cracks in the foundation" begin to show.
But this isn't a matter of what I WANT to see happen, I'm afraid. I am simply reporting an involuntary psycho-emotional response--a sort of "vision" that has come unbidden, one which I wish I COULD ignore or (better still) deny.
I don't know WHAT to make of it--but frankly it scares the CRAP out of me.

 

[Escambia94]

Remember that for the first time ever, a Gator head coach has an expensive buyout. Stricklin and the investors took this out of the hands of the impatient fans. They are going to keep Napier until 2025 or later no matter how loud we idiot fans scream on social media, because we are not the ones funding the program at $16k a year (Bull Gator) or millions per project (sometimes $10M a pop) or at what used to be Gator Guard levels ($3M in 24 hours). That is what NIL gets us. By constantly bitching about the lack of championships despite the lack of investment, we surrendered all the power to rich investors.

TLDR to the Gator Nation: quit yer bitching because nobody is listening until you put your money where your mouth is. Napier is your head coach until 2025 at least, probably 2026 even if he goes 5-7 every stinking year!

 

[DRU2012]

Remember that for the first time ever, a Gator head coach has an expensive buyout. Stricklin and the investors took this out of the hands of the impatient fans. They are going to keep Napier until 2025 or later no matter how loud we idiot fans scream on social media, because we are not the ones funding the program at $16k a year (Bull Gator) or millions per project (sometimes $10M a pop) or at what used to be Gator Guard levels ($3M in 24 hours). That is what NIL gets us. By constantly bitching about the lack of championships despite the lack of investment, we surrendered all the power to rich investors.

TLDR to the Gator Nation: quit yer bitching because nobody is listening until you put your money where your mouth is. Napier is your head coach until 2025 at least, probably 2026 even if he goes 5-7 every stinking year!

Assuming you're right, then at the very least we'll likely be loading up on talent the whole time--and even WITH that "worstcase losing-record scenario" the NEXT guy will come in to a full house, anyway...Assuming HE can hold most of what's here at that point, and further assuming it's someone who has his own clear vision and rep AND stirs the collective enthusiasm (and imaginations) of all those who comprise "what's here" as to what he can do, perhaps it only slightly delays the eventual realization of "what could be" if Billy himself were able to adapt and effectively bring in and manage a complete and fully functioning powerhouse here after all.
MY current growing pessimism then is more a matter of a growing realization of all that is obviously MISSING here at the moment:
I am just thoroughly sick of our fielding a team that weekly finds ways to LOOK bad.
We aren't merely "mediocre".
We are more a team with TALENT that nonetheless consistently continues to PLAY BADLY AT KEY MOMENTS.
It is of course enormously disappointing and endlessly frustrating. I KNOW that everyone in that lockeroom feels worse than ANYONE at this point. Somehow the key to CHANGING that comes down to Coaching, and that "key" must be found, inserted and TURNED--and SOON.
Otherwise things COULD get much worse, and much more quickly...a gathering downward spiral that could destroy any chance for the fast turnaround and RE-rise we have all been counting on seeing fostered here anytime soon.

 

[DRU2012]

PS. For the moment, I am giving up following even the best of the online podcasts I normally follow (I gave up on TV commentary weeks ago). It is necessary for now then that I restrict myself to JUST the exchange of thought and info I am exposed to here at GE.
Time and circumstances over the next few weeks will determine when or if a return to wider exposure and participation become desirable and/or necessary once more. I sure hope so--but for now, all I anticipate NEEDING is a place to vent and commiserate!

 

[Escambia94]

I only listen to “A Peek into the Florida Gators” and “Pod Up with Shane Mathews”.

 

[DRU2012]

I only listen to “A Peek into the Florida Gators” and “Pod Up with Shane Mathews”.

Yeah, that's pretty well all that's left...and if I were to resume ANY return to daily monitoring of "fave podcasts" (say, at first, maybe "one of each per week"?), those would be the two I'd return to.
(Even Gator Dave and his "Breakdown" for the moment is just too dependent on our putting a fully functioning TEAM on the field and not embarrassing itself!)
Here's the thing:
It has become all too obvious (at least to me) that while Billy is a "Good Person" AND a "good guy" (NOT the same thing), he even appears to do many of the things required of a Head Coach well, he himself is NOT in fact a TOP SHELF HEAD COACH.
However, he IS turning out to be such a strong recruiter--AND every bit the overall "Program CEO" he was heralded to be coming in, that I COULD still see us achieving everything we hired him to come in and overSEE--IF he were able to somehow find and install the right OC and Special Teams specialist(s) and let them freely do their thing.
But it has to happen SOON (right AFTER this season ends, at the very LATEST)--and at this point he will ONLY get one CHANCE at it.
Yes: we are already now dancing at the very edge of the precipice. NOT because Paul Finebaum or any of these sanctimonious trolls online SAY so, but because "the product on the field is just TOO FLAWED"!
Not just talent and depth, but above all a tightly organized, functioning and RUN set of onfield, ingame SQUADS (all THREE phases!) will need to be developing as we look ahead:
NEXT season's schedule stacks up even tougher against us than THIS one's.
We're NOT gonna be playing for Championships yet--but we need to begin to see the SEEDS of all that, the PROMISE of "what's coming" starting to show up on the field in PLACE of some of the disorganized, ill-prepared floundering we've seen this staff offer up as "gameplan" and "teamwork" thus far THIS year.

 

[Escambia94]

1.3 million alligators in Florida. 2 million in Louisiana. LSU chooses a Tiger for its mascot. Go Gators. Florida Gators.

 

[Escambia94]

Updated head-to-head statistic comparison.

	LSU	FLA
Off. Points per Game (Rank)	45.2 (3)	28.9 (64)
Def. Points per Game (Rank)	28.2 (86)	24.7 (62)
Turnovers Allowed (Rank)	6 (5)	8 (14)
Turnovers Forced (Rank)	11 (86)	6 (129)

 

[Leakfan12]

I only listen to “A Peek into the Florida Gators” and “Pod Up with Shane Mathews”.

I started to listen to Mrs. Peek-Wilbur (thanks E94). How's Shane's podcast?

 

[Escambia94]

I started to listen to Mrs. Peek-Wilbur (thanks E94). How's Shane's podcast?

Shane is not as exciting as Ali, but he is more realistic in his assessment even if he comes across as grumpy. He does watch practices that he is allowed to watch. He is probably the closest Gator to Steve Spurrier and Kerwin Bell. I am not sure how close he is to Billy Napier, but his assessments are usually fair. The podcast tends to meander a bit when Buddy Martin joins.

 

[DRU2012]

1.3 million alligators in Florida. 2 million in Louisiana. LSU chooses a Tiger for its mascot. Go Gators. Florida Gators.

I wonder if those populations weren't more the reverse before people replaced large swathes of the Everglades...but regardless, the underlying sentiment remains the same in our collective hearts:
GO GATORS!
"Won't back down" means "FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT!!!" til the very end, no matter WHAT.

 

[DRU2012]

Shane is not as exciting as Ali, but he is more realistic in his assessment even if he comes across as grumpy. He does watch practices that he is allowed to watch. He is probably the closest Gator to Steve Spurrier and Kerwin Bell. I am not sure how close he is to Billy Napier, but his assessments are usually fair. The podcast tends to meander a bit when Buddy Martin joins.

A fair, concise and accurate analysis and summation of Shane's personna AND podcast.
(Both his AND Ms Peak's appearances on Buddy Martin's however, while often entertaining, are affected by Buddy's own less consistently balanced (or particularly incisive) approach.)

 

[DRU2012]

Don't know about you guys, but I am so wacked out by this season's ups'n'downs that I have by now pretty well abandoned my long-practiced gameday superstitions:
I'm not even wearing any Gator togs as has ALWAYS been my routine on Fall Saturdays--since I was an adolescent! Oh, I WILL still throw on my orange'n'blue fleece-lined Team-lettered hoody when I head to the supermarket to stock up in a little while--on a cool, rainy day in Austin in Fall it'll be a SEA of burnt-ORANGE out there, after all!
I may even watch parts of some other games during the day, upon my return home...
Might well be the last time THIS season I am inclined to DO so, really.
Here's that "schizo-thing" again:
"Expect the WORST, HOPE for the BEST."
BY NOW it pretty well encapsulates what the whole season has been reduced to, right?
I mean, things ultimately go the way most forecast them to go and I personally WON'T likely be WATCHING a lot more college football this year--Gators or anyone ELSE!

 

[DRU2012]

Well, here it is moments before kickoff in Baton Rouge...and based on what we've seen around college football today I see mainly MORE of that very same "schizo-thing" I talked about above:
(1) On the one hand of course you have only to look at how the other two teams we've yet got left on our schedule after today--both won; So after this one against a dominant big play offense in one of the worst places (outside the Swamp) to play a night game, we face a large "snowfall rolling downhill" in Mizzou, who EASILY flattened Tennessee today, and FSU, undefeated after edging Miami by a touchdown late...All in all, it would appear our best shot is against the highly-ranked Seminoles--They come to OUR house, and have at least been somewhat pressed of late...
(2) At the same time, elsewhere in college football today we've seen a great deal more of the strange "reversals of fortune", the unexpected "ups'n'LETdowns" that featured last week's "dazzling winners" as this week's surprisingly "bigtime losers". You just cannot be sure what you'll get or see from week to week this season, it seems.
Is this a growing trend--a feature somehow of this new reality of "portals", NILs, acceleratingly younger teams and all the rest?
(I don't know, but LSU got first possession and is marching down the field, going through the Gator defense like the proverbial "hot knife thru' butter".
I switched away when they hit the red zone on like their 4th play from scrimmage, and may well have the 7-point lead already in this one. I've switched away (and am currently watching a documentary on Airborne's "E-Company" on D-day...).
As for our boys back in Baton Rouge, not having much in the way of depth to begin with, by now we are missing starters all over the field on BOTH sides of the line of scrimmage coming INTO this one. Very few avenues toward victory were open to start with--and thise few appear to be skamming shut right ftom the opening kick.
I just no longer retain the inner strength to see this sort of thing through with the required amount of determination and stoicism.

 

[Escambia94]

I can only catch snippets of the game on social media. Sounds like tackling is not a thing for the Gator defense.

 

[DRU2012]

Taking my first peek back in--and am slightly heartened to see that we ARE keeping it close
--only to see us immediately collapse on offense in the middle of what WAS a promising drive.
Um, I will now beat it on out of here:
They were doing fine without me--a whole lot BETTER, it seems...(always a new superstition to be discovered (invented?).

 

[DRU2012]

I can only catch snippets of the game on social media. Sounds like tackling is not a thing for the Gator defense.

Yeah--that's exactly what got me quickly SWITCHING AWAY back on that first LSU drive...
(I am back watching the show about E-company again...Better discipline, tactics, and gameplan!)