Official Game Thread Week 10: Florida Gators at Texas A&M Aggies 11/5/2022

[Escambia94]

Overview
The Florida Gators (4-4, 1-4) face the Texas A&M Aggies (3-5, 1-4) for the sixth time, and the second time in two years in College Station. Florida is 2-3 all-time against the Aggies, 1-1 at Kyle Field. The Aggies are favored by 3.5 and the over/under is 54.5.

Date/ Location	UF	TAMU
10/10/2020, College Station, TX	38	41
10/14/2017, Gainesville, FL	17	19
9/8/2012, College Station, TX	20	17
1/2/1977, El Paso, TX (Sun Bowl)	14	37
10/13/1962, Gainesville, FL	42	6

Keys to the Game
The Aggies are trying to find their identity on offense after going through their 3rd QB this season. They are better at passing than rushing, which is good for the Gators because we suck at both. On paper, the Gators are better on offense and worse on defense. The Gators will need to repeat the 3rd quarter success they had against UGA last week and extrapolate for all four quarters in order to win this game.

	TAMU	UF
PPG/F	22.6	30.0
PPG/A	21.8	29.9
YD/F, TOT	359.1	422.8
YD/F, Pass	235.9	223.8
YD/F, Rush	123.3	199.0
YD/A, TOT	375.8	445.0
YD/A, Pass	170.1	253.3
YD/A, Rush	205.6	191.8

Season Comparison
The Aggies were shocked by a 14-17 loss to Appalachian State, but they have a decent win over #13 Miami and #10 Arkansas. Florida surprisingly beat #7 Utah and then crapped the bed for a couple weeks with losses to #20 Kentucky and #11 Tennessee along with an ugly win over USF. The Gators have shown some fight in them in losses to superior talent against Tennessee, LSU, and Georgia, but it might not be enough to match up against similar talented TAMU.

TAMU	UF
Sun Sep 3 vs SHU W 31-0	Sat Sep 3 vs #7 Utah W 29-26
Sat Sep 10 vs App St L 14-17	Sat Sep 10 vs #20 UK L 16-25
Sat Sep 17 vs #13 Miami W 17-9	Sat Sep 17 vs USF W 31-28
Sat Sep 24 vs #10 Arkansas W 23-21	Sat Sep 24 @ #11 UT L 33-38
Sat Oct 1 @ Miss St L 24-42	Sun Oct 2 vs EWU W 52-17
Sat Oct 8 @ #1 Alabama L 20-24	Sat Oct 8 vs Missouri W 24-17
Sat Oct 22 @ South Carolina L 24-30	Sat Oct 15 vs LSU L 35-45
Sat Oct 29 vs #15 Ole Miss L 28-31	Sat Oct 29 vs (neutral) #1 UGA L 20-42

Key Personnel
Aggie freshman QB Conner Weigman is built like a tank, unlike sophomore Haynes King. The offense looks somewhat different with Weigman, and he showed signs of improvement in the close loss to Ole Miss.

TAMU	UF
QB H. King 81-142, 941 YDS, 6 TD, 6 INT 118.2 RTG QB C. Weigman 36-59, 429 YDS, 4 TD, 0 INT, 144.5 RTG	QB A. Richardson 114-207, 1638 YDS, 7 TD, 7 INT, 125.9 RTG
RB D. Achane 142 CAR, 765 YDS, 4 TD	RB M. Johnson Jr. 70 CAR 449 YDS 6.4 YPC 7 TD QB A. Richardson 67 CAR 414 YDS 6.2 YPC 6 TD RB T. Etienne 64 CAR 387 YDS 6.0 YPC 4 TD
WR E. Stewart 38 REC 478 YDS 2 TD WR M. Muhammad 23 REC 342 YDS 3 TD WR A. Smith 15 REC 291 YDS 2 TD RB D. Achane 33 REC 195 YDS 2 TD TE D. Green 17 REC 193 YDS 1 TD	WR J. Shorter 21 REC 471 YDS 2 TD WR X. Henderson 32 REC 362 YDS 2 TD WR R. Pearsall 19 REC 341 YDS 2 TD TE K. Zipperer 13 REC 177 YDS 1 TD
K R. Bond 14/14 PAT 8/10 FG (51 long) 38 PTS K C. Davis 6.6 PAT 1/3 FG (40 long) 9 PTS	K A. Mihalek 27/27 PAT 7/11 FG (52 long) 48 PTS
LB C. Russell 52 T 2.5 SK 1 PD 0 INT 1 FR DB J. Gilbert 52 T 0 SK 4 PD 2 INT 0 FR DB A. Johnson 48 T 1 SK 1 PD 0 INT 0 FR DB D. Richardson 44 T 0 SK 3 PD 0 INT 1 FR	S R. Torrence 66 T 0 SK 1 PD 0 INT 0 FR LB V. Miller 55 T 0 SK 1 PD 0 INT 1 FR S T. Dean 52 T 0.5 SK 3 PD 0 INT 1 FR LB A. Burney 51 T 4 SK 2 PD 2 INT 2 FF 0 FR LB B. Cox 45 T 2 SK 1 PD 0 INT 0 FF DL G. Dexter 33 T 1.5 SK 1 PD 1 INT 0 FF 0 FR

Gator sophomore QB Anthony Richardson is the key to any Gator victory--that and a lucky defense.

Game/ Result	Passer Rating	QBR
Sat Sep 3 vs #7 Utah W 29-26	129.6	96.3
Sat Sep 10 vs #20 UK L 16-25	62.9	2.8
Sat Sep 17 vs USF W 31-28	85.6	7.7
Sat Sep 24 @ #11 UT L 33-38	151.5	83.8
Sun Oct 2 vs EWU W 52-17	327.6	100.0
Sat Oct 8 vs Missouri W 24-17	106.0	81.6
Sat Oct 15 vs LSU L 35-45	135.4	85.8
Sat Oct 29 vs (neutral) #1 UGA L 20-42	119.1	48.0
TOTAL	125.9	64.9

Prediction
Earlier I predicted a 19-17 victory for the Aggies: https://www.gatorenvy.com/threads/mid-season-grades-for-the-2022-florida-gators-and-opponents.21026/ . WIth the new QB under center I will amend that prediction to 32-24. I would not be surprised if Florida pulled off the upset, which would be nice because I will be at this game and the Gators are undefeated when I am at the game.

 

[DRU2012]

Yikes, I haven't had the time nor the inclination to turn to THIS game.
We've gone through so many changes ourselves especially, mounting weekly, now DAILY, that it just hasn't been my main concern anymore. I mean, YES: It's been a weird season, and now an even WEIRDER WEEK.
Meanwhile, aTm and the Aggies if anything are in more trouble and confusion than WE are...HE is learning about this "New World" in an even MORE "up close and personal" way than others (that "Top-Ranked Class" of his has turned a little sour, it seems...)
However, it seems ol' Jimbo has cracked the whip, jerked their collective leash I suppose--so we'll see how THAT works out among today's crop of "5-Star Athlete", as I say.
It would SEEM to offer a crack of "The Light of opportunity" to US, though:
This one WAS looking more and more like "the next loss"--but now we are back to that "puncher's CHANCE" that "AR on a good day" supposedly "ALWAYS" offered us.
So it goes. I guess we'll see.
Like I said: WEIRD YEAR.

 

[DRU2012]

Sigh. Early kick-off for this one--11:00am entrance in order to fit the Noon Eastern broadcast slot.
I'm not armed with much in the way of extensive numbers with which to frame today's matchup in College Station, as Escambia94 has so reliably managed each week so far this season, but I do have this:
In our 8 games thus far, where we are 4-and-4, we have WON ALL 4 GAMES in which we rushed for 210 yards, while LOSING the other 4 where we FAILED to reach that number in our ground game.
Looks and sounds pretty damn straight forward, does it not?
Yeah--for me too. Then again, such statistics are often convincing right up until they suddenly DON'T hold up, when it turns out OTHER factors influence a game's outcome after all--and said team LOSES when a particular trend is met and, well, there it is.
Still, even with A&M quite able to see the same numbers and draw the likely conclusions as to OUR plans, it remains for OUR side to at least to SOME extent take what we can from what has undeniably been where our strength and best chance at victory has trended thus far.
Given current strengths, tendencies and personnel, in simplest terms our gameplan on offense must be to RUN THE DAMN BALL.
I'd love to see AR up his game in the air (as we know he has within him) and Piersall and the remaining receivers (sans Zipperer, for one, of couse) do the same, bringing us some balance and an existing long-range dimension "over the top", it will likely all start with the ground game, if we are to have any real chance at all today at their place.
There it is. I hope E-- is well; I hope Billy's charges
are up to the challenge and that we at least can be proud of their effort and general performance out there.
GO GATORS!!!

 

[Escambia94]

@DRU2012 I merged your post into the official game thread.

 

[Escambia94]

The midnight yell was cancelled last night due to lightning. Today the weather is nice in College Station, 60 degrees with wind gusts up to 12 mph. Lots of Gators in town.

 

[Escambia94]

QB Anthony Richardson has posted a 147.8 passing effiency rating while
passing for 1,215 yards (243.0 YPG), seven touchdowns and three interceptions in the past five games.
Richardson has rushed 43 times for 276 yards (6.5 YPC) and three touchdowns, equating to
55.2 yards per game on the ground.

 

[Escambia94]

Across the team’s last five games, Florida is averaging 463.8 YPG, 273.4 passing YPG and 190.4 rushing YPG. The rushing attack is 3rd in the nation at 5.9 ypc and is on pace to be the best in Gator history.

 

[Escambia94]

Here we go Gators, here we go!

 

[DRU2012]

@DRU2012 I merged your post into the official game thread.

Sorry--I had this FEELING I was just missing something here this week...Don't know HOW, but I sure DID. THANKS, E--!
(Might have simply been "too EARLY"!
It was pre-shave, after all... (I just replaced the heads in my Braun, too!).
Anyway, like the team and this season, "We are Moving ON..."
I am able to settle back and take this one in now, I am happy to say.

 

[DRU2012]

Now the big news surrounding Agvies of late is of course that they were bitten team-wide by the flu-bug.
Would like to think we could beat these guys WITHOUT such "intervention", but I guess in the name of "bowl eligible", we'll take whatever edge comes our way.

 

[DRU2012]

Just when we get things going, a dumb penalty.

 

[DRU2012]

Receiver can't handle AR throw , off his hands. 3rd and long...and they get nothing.
Come up short. AGAIN. But they do get the 3 points. Gonna need TDs...now here comes the hard-to-watch part of our game:
Gator D--which if it was their grade THAT would be a vast improvement, at this point.

 

[DRU2012]

Aw, hell.
Here we go. Right away: give up big run.
Gator D makes EVERYONE well in no time.

 

[DRU2012]

Another drive.
A missed catch--great pass, on Piersall's hands on dead run at td line--and the receiver drops it.
Only he drops it because of targeted head hit.
1st and goal.
TOUCHDIWN Gators on next running play!

 

[DRU2012]

Keep running that ball, guys.

 

[DRU2012]

This has the MAKINGS of a shoot out.
Hope not--our defense already looking plenty bad, and I don't want Anthony having to OUTSCORE every team we play now.

 

[DRU2012]

I mean, even this defense is TRYING.
They just don't have it. ANY of "it".

 

[Escambia94]

Evenly matched stats at the end of the first quarter. 17-14 Gators with the Aggies marching through our defense.

 

[DRU2012]

Even Spurrier's "fun'n'gun" teams played SOME defense (AND they eschewed field goals, so sure that they could get touchdowns!).
Meanwhile, ours let them drive the field again, but it's 3rd and goal inside the ten.
Touchdown Aggies...We LET them score.
WAY too easy. I'm sorry. We really DO have one of the worst defenses in major college football.
This is simply a matter of "VERY LITTLE ADEQUATE TALENT ".
It will take several YEARS, minimum, to find and Coach up a decent one.
But Richardson takes the ball on the very next play from scrimmage, turns on the jets and rubs the field for a Gator TD!
This is a crazy shoot out, just as I feared.
Now Aggies driving again.
This is embarrassing.
No matter how well our Offense is operating, thus defense of ours cannot stop ANYONE OR ANYTHING!

 

[DRU2012]

If this were at OUR place, maybe we'd have a chance to wear them down, "score last" and win a close one...but here at their house, and is not able to make a stop, NOT ONE, well, I just don't see it coming out that way.