Official Game Thread Week 6: Florida Gators vs Missouri Tigers 10/8/2022

[Escambia94]

Overview​

The Florida Gators get a short week to prepare for back-to-back Tigers, starting with the Missouri Tigers. Mizzou is coming off a near-victory against the Georgia Bulldogs. Last week the Tigers controlled the Dawgs for most of the game before falling in the late rally. The Gators are coming off a chaotic week with Hurricane Ian forcing the evacuation of families, cancellation of practices, and rescheduling of the game. Both teams showed elements of growth that could be leveraged as each team heads into the SEC gauntlet. The Gators are favored by 10 and the over/under is 54.

Keys to the Game​

The Gators are 5-6 all time against Missouri. Missouri Coach Eliah Drinkwitz is 2-0 against Billy Napier in the Sun Belt, and he is 13-15 (8-12) in his third season at Missouri, 1-1 against Florida. Last year the Tigers defeated the Gators 24-23 in Columbia. Here is a quick comparison of the 2022 seasons so far.

Season Comparison​

Missouri is 2-3 (0-2). Florida is 3-2 (O-2). Neither team is scary, but Missouri did give Georgia a scare. Both teams are rather inconsistent to this point, which is why both are 0-2 in the SEC.

Game	Result	Key Stats For	Key Stat Against
9/1 vs Louisiana Tech	W 52-24	YD TOT 558 YD PASS 235 YD RUSH 323 PEN 3	YD TOT 344 YD PASS 336 YD RUSH 8 PEN 3
9/10 at Kansas State	L 12-40	YD TOT 222 YD PASS 128 YD RUSH 94 PEN 3	YD TOT 336 YD PASS 101 YD RUSH 235 PEN 1
9/17 vs Abilene Christian	W 34-17	YD TOT 487 YD PASS 297 YD RUSH 190 PEN 0	YD TOT 308 YD PASS 190 YD RUSH 109 PEN 1
9/24 at Auburn	L 14-17 OT	YD TOT 312 YD PASS 179 YD RUSH 133 PEN 1	YD TOT 217 YD PASS 135 YD RUSH 82 PEN 0
10/1 vs Georgia	L 22-26	YD TOT 294 YD PASS 192 YD RUSH 102 PEN 2	YD TOT 481 YD PASS 312 YD RUSH 169 PEN 3
10/8 Florida 10/15 BYE 10/22 Vanderbilt 10/29 South Carolina 11/5 Kentucky 11/12 Tennessee 11/19 NMSU 11/25 Arkansas

Missouri 2022 Season Through Week 5​

Game	Result	Key Stats For	Key Stat Against
9/3 vs #7 Utah	W 29-26	YD TOT 451 YD PASS 168 YD RUSH 283 PEN 0	YD TOT 446 YD PASS 216 YD RUSH 230 PEN 3
9/10 vs #20 Kentucky	L 16-26	YD TOT 279 YD PASS 143 YD RUSH 136 PEN 0	YD TOT 272 YD PASS 202 YD RUSH 70 PEN 1
9/17 vs USF	W 31-28	YD TOT 329 YD PASS 112 YD RUSH 217 PEN 4	YD TOT 402 YD PASS 116 YD RUSH 286 PEN 0
9/24 at #11 Tennessee	L 33-38	YD TOT 594 YD PASS 453 YD RUSH 141 PEN 2	YD TOT 576 YD PASS 349 YD RUSH 227 PEN 3
10/2 vs EWU	W 52-17	YD TOT 666 YD PASS 392 YD RUSH 274 PEN 1	YD TOT 411 YD PASS 258 YD RUSH 153 PEN 0
10/8 Missouri 10/15 LSU 10/22 BYE 10/29 Georgia 11/5 Texas A&M 11/12 South Carolina 11/19 Vanderbilt 11/25 FSU

Florida 2022 Season Through Week 5​

Team Stats	UF	Mizz
PPG/F	32.2	26.8
PPG/A	27.0	24.8
YD TOT/F	463.8	374.6
YD PASS/F	253.6	206.2
YD RUSH/F	210.2	168.4
YD TOT/A	421.4	337.8
YD PASS/A	228.2	216.6
YD RUSH/A	193.2	121.2

Season Stat Comparison​

Key Personnel​

The Gators feature a hybrid spread-option/ pro-style offense and a 3-3-5 defense. The Tigers feature a pro-style tempo offense and a 4-2-5 defense.

UF	Mizz
QB A. Richardson 73-131, 1116 YDS, 4 TD, 6 INT 128.2 RAT	QB B. Cook 89-141, 997 YDS, 5 TD, 4 INT 128.5 RAT
RB M. Johnson Jr. 38 CAR, 282 YDS, 4 TD QB A. Richardson 42 CAR, 241 YDS, 5 TD RB T. Etienne 35 CAR, 223 YDS, 2 TD	RB C. Schrader 46 CAR, 262 YDS, 3 TD RB N. Peat 56 CAR, 262 YDS, 1 TD QB B. Cook 40 CAR, 147 YDS, 2 TD
WR-Z J. Shorter 14 REC, 314 YDS, 1 TD WR-Y R. Pearsall 13 REC, 245 YDS, 1 TD WR-X Xzavier Henderson 21 REC, 202 YD, 1 TD WR-H/TE K. Zipperer 11 REC, 166 YDS, 1 D WR-Y2 T. Whittemore 3 REC, 87 YDS 0 TD	WR-H WR D. Lovett 27 REC, 460 YDS, 2 TD WR-H2 WR. B. Banister 14 REC, 132 YDS, 0 TD WR-Z WR M. Cooper 11 REC, 108 YDS, 0 TD WR-X L. Burden 13 REC, 94 YDS, 1 TD WR-Z T. Dove 7 REC, 80 YDS, 0 TD
PK A. Mihalek 17 XPM 4/6 FGM 50 LONG 29 PTS	PK H. Mevia 14 XPM 10/13 FGM 56 LONG 44 PTS
S R. Torrence 27/18 (45) TACK 0 SACK 1 PD 0 INT S T. Dean 19/17 (36) TACK 0.5 SACK 1 PD 0 INT LB V. Miller 9/20 (29) TACK 4 SACK 1 PD 1 FF LB A. Burney 20/8 (28) TACK 4 SACK 1 PD 1 INT 1 FF LB B. Box 10/15 (25) TACK 0 SACK 0 PD 0 INT 0 FF DL G. Dexter 7/10 (17) TACK 0.5 SACK 1 PD 1 INT 0 FF DL P. Umanmielen 6/9 (15) TACK 1 SACK 0 PD 0 INT 1 FF	DB J. Carlies 33 TACK 1 SACK 0 PD 1 INT LB Ty’Ron Hopper 32 TACK 2 SACK 1 PD 1 INT DB J. Charleston 29 TACK 0 SACK 0 PD 1 INT DB M. Manuel 20 TACK 1 SACK 0 PD 1 INT 0 FF LB C. Bailey 15 TACK 0 SACK 2 PD 0 INT 1 FF DB K. Abrams-Draine 14 TACK 0 SACK 5 PD 0 INT LB D. Wilson 11 TACK 0 SACK 5 PD 0 INT

Key Personnel Comparison​

Prediction​

Earlier in the season I predicted a 34-23 victory for the Gators. At the time the FPI was Florida 9.2, Missouri 2.1, or +10 Florida including the 3-point home field advantage. Since then both teams have dropped the same amount in FPI: Florida 6.2, Missouri 0.3. I predict a similar score, 32-27, Gators.

 

[DRU2012]

SO: based on experience and trending play, you have gone from favoring UF by double digits to 5 points, less than a TD. I'M figuring the turnovers margin makes the ddifference. The team that protects the ball takes this one--a real stretch in SEC play, indeed in ANY such contest.
Sorry. In other words, the team that comes out and EXECUTES. That amounts to the key to the rest of our season. Stay composed, play up to our proven level of current potential, and we take a close, hard fought game at home.

 

[DRU2012]

I suppose it is at this point pretty safe to offer THIS much in the way of predicting our eventual level of accomplishment in 2022:
That "7.5 wins" number still appears reasonable;
Depending on how THIS game goes, we either beat that by a couple, or end up having to scratch and fight to meet it.
Naturally, I lean towards the former scenario--losing in the "cocktail party" and at least one other, and maybe managing 8 wins.
If we can keep getting our young guys more and more playing time, "the future" will be bright indeed. We'll lose fewer to the portal, and need it ourselves that much less.

 

[Escambia94]

SO: based on experience and trending play, you have gone from favoring UF by double digits to 5 points, less than a TD. I'M figuring the turnovers margin makes the ddifference. The team that protects the ball takes this one--a real stretch in SEC play, indeed in ANY such contest.
Sorry. In other words, the team that comes out and EXECUTES. That amounts to the key to the rest of our season. Stay composed, play up to our proven level of current potential, and we take a close, hard fought game at home.

The FPI factors in a lot of things other than wins and turnovers (that is more for power rankings and eye test)— it takes a holistic look at strength of schedule and performance within expected values. All the variables have changed each week, so the FPI adjusts. Specifically for Florida, most models had Florida at 3-2 to this point, but with Utah and Kentucky flipped in terms of victories and losses. At the same time, the models did not foresee LSU and FSU getting better.

 

[Escambia94]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1577024925617254400

 

[DRU2012]

The FPI factors in a lot of things other than wins and turnovers (that is more for power rankings and eye test)— it takes a holistic look at strength of schedule and performance within expected values. All the variables have changed each week, so the FPI adjusts. Specifically for Florida, most models had Florida at 3-2 to this point, but with Utah and Kentucky flipped in terms of victories and losses. At the same time, the models did not foresee LSU and FSU getting better.

Personally, I still remain unimpressed with either.
Give me LSU, even at their place any kickoff time but at night, and long as the AR of the Utah and the last 2 games (as opposed to the one we saw in weeks 2 and 3) and I still like us outscoring them. Call me crazy, but based on any strict application of the "eyetest" and I like our chances against the Criminoles under almost ANY circumstances: Our Offense is finally rounding into form, but the D remains putrid.
The numbers simply underline what we have seen with our own eyes: We are LAST in practically every category. We simply SUCK in every way. We don't scare anyone, because we can't STOP anyone! Tackling remains a problem, a missing skill...We either change that or finish last in the East.

 

[Escambia94]

Personally, I still remain unimpressed with either.
Give me LSU, even at their place any kickoff time but at night, and long as the AR of the Utah and the last 2 games (as opposed to the one we saw in weeks 2 and 3) and I still like us outscoring them. Call me crazy, but based on any strict application of the "eyetest" and I like our chances against the Criminoles under almost ANY circumstances: Our Offense is finally rounding into form, but the D remains putrid.
The numbers simply underline what we have seen with our own eyes: We are LAST in practically every category. We simply SUCK in every way. We don't scare anyone, because we can't STOP anyone! Tackling remains a problem, a missing skill...We either change that or finish last in the East.

The FPI discussion for games other than Missouri goes here: https://www.gatorenvy.com/threads/week-5-sec-power-rankings-with-fpi.20983/

For the Missouri game, their FPI has been on the decline. The model does not predict Missouri improving later in the season even if they beat Florida. The Tigers are currently 2-3 and are projected to earn at most 3 more victories, which will definitely be Vanderbilt and New Mexico State University. That third victory is projected to be either an upset over Florida or an upset over South Carolina. Florida is currently 3-2 and projected to earn 3-4 more victories, which the model thinks will be FSU, Vanderbilt, and two toss-ups. The toss-ups could be Texas A&M and Missouri. I only mention these future matchups because it affects the model for Missouri this week.

 

[Leakfan12]

I think this game could be a toss-up.

 

[DRU2012]

The FPI discussion for games other than Missouri goes here: https://www.gatorenvy.com/threads/week-5-sec-power-rankings-with-fpi.20983/

For the Missouri game, their FPI has been on the decline. The model does not predict Missouri improving later in the season even if they beat Florida. The Tigers are currently 2-3 and are projected to earn at most 3 more victories, which will definitely be Vanderbilt and New Mexico State University. That third victory is projected to be either an upset over Florida or an upset over South Carolina. Florida is currently 3-2 and projected to earn 3-4 more victories, which the model thinks will be FSU, Vanderbilt, and two toss-ups. The toss-ups could be Texas A&M and Missouri. I only mention these future matchups because it affects the model for Missouri this week.

More than ever, I remain in "wait'n'see"-mode for now. More on that with respect to Mizzou in a moment; there is such a dichotomy between the offense and the defense in this Gator squad, reflected of course in the developing results, that a "reserved judgement" is all can currently manage. If we can hit 8 wins I will consider that a positive and promising outcome.

 

[DRU2012]

I think this game could be a toss-up.

Based on alI we've seen so far, I don't see how we can come into this one with any other outlook. Our OFFENSE ought to be able to WAY outscore theirs, it would seem (provided the AR we've seen seemingly "more and more of" The last couple of weeks is truly settling in here now)--but our defense, especially the front line, cannot seem to stop ANYONE.
Fix THAT, somehow, and I think we'll GET those "8 wins"--this one included--but otherwise, we may not even make Bowl eligibility!

 

[Escambia94]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1577342342960496642

Florida is #4 in yards per play when factoring in non-FBS opponents; #25 when factoring in only FBS opponents. Using FBS only they have the same average as they did in all of 2021.

 

[Escambia94]

Good news: Florida’s safeties are elite tacklers. Bad news: Florida’s linebackers are not elite tacklers.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1577469885264719872

 

[Escambia94]

Defensive lineman Princely Umanmielen gets an A for his performance last week. The Gators need him and Gervon Dexter to slow down the high tempo Missouri offense.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1577389845105647616

 

[Escambia94]

Tight End Keon Zipperer gets a B for the week, but he gets an A using the curve.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1577374746123059221

 

[DRU2012]

Important Note heading into this coming Saturday:
I maintain that this game against Mizzou, as we return to our SEC schedule (in fact head into the HEART of it), amounts to the potential "turning point" of our 2022 season:
From an "emotionally based" viewpoint, one that takes in that "human variability" we acknowledge somehow transcends the "more quantifiable" stat numbers that otherwise appear to highlight the likelihood of certain outcomes, we MUST win this to have any real chance at a "winning record" at season's end.

 

[Escambia94]

Other than Vanderbilt, Missouri is the next-best chance for victory. A loss here means you can hang up your jorts for the season.

 

[DRU2012]

Other than Vanderbilt, Missouri is the next-best chance for victory. A loss here means you can hang up your jorts for the season.

My point exactly--though perhaps a bit more "frantically" expressed. All in all, though, a realistic one.
Wish it hadn't COME to this so otherwise "early" in the 2022 FBS season...
A result of our uber-tough opening MONTH this time, I guess.

 

[Escambia94]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1577311655951667200

 

[DRU2012]

We are definitely back on track offensively;
Now it is on the defensive side that our fortunes' rise or fall depends. Not sure how much flexibility we've got on the roster, in terms of yet untapped talent, that can offer improvement in that regard...
It will somehow be in coaching and practice--technique, discipline, scheme and plain hard WORK--where we will potentially find significant improvement, the kind that might bring us some crucial victories from here.
I think we're doing things "the right way", but as far as the rest of this season is concerned, only RESULTS matter now. We'll be judged by our actual performance.

 

[DRU2012]

At least we'll know EARLY this week.
No "slow death":
11 am (for me) kickoff, and I figure we'll know where this one's headed before the half.
Yes, they gave UGA a game last week--but if we are "properly prepared and motivated" we should be able to establish control from the start here, eventually pull away. We aren't strong enough yet to do that to "ELITE" teams, but it is time to begin to build the habit against the mediocre ones--like Mizzou.