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OGT 2023 Week 3: #11 Tennessee 16, Florida (1-1) 29 (9/16/2023)

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Escambia94

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Florida Gators vs #11 Tennessee
Florida-Tennessee.JPG

How to watch or listen:
Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstreit will be announcing the game on ESPN at 7 PM. Sean Kelley, Shane Matthews, and Tate Casey will be available over Gator Sports Network from Learfield.

Overview:
The Florida Gators open their SEC schedule with Tennessee at home under the lights at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium at Steve Spurrier-Florida Field. This will be the 53rd matchup against the Tennessee Volunteers in a rivalry that dates back to 1916. The Gators are ahead in the all-time series 31-21. The Vols have not won in the Swamp since 2003 when they were ranked #12 and the Gators were #17. These two programs share an interesting history. It was former Gator QB and head coach Doug Dickey who introduced the Tennessee tradition of the "Power T" formation by the marching band as well as the checkered end zones. Dickey would later coach the Gators through a miserable decade of football, then contribute to Florida's NCAA sanctions in the 1980s.

Billy Napier is 47-20 (27-5 Sun Belt, 3-5 SEC) after 5 years of coaching, with this year being his second year in Hogtown. Josh Heupel is in his 3rd year at UT where he is 20-8 (10-6 SEC), or 48-16 overall. Heupel came to Knoxville from UCF, which happens to be where he snagged his OC, Joey Halzle. Halzle's offense has one of the highest tempos in all of FBS, so expect the Vols to run twice as many plays as the slower tempo Gators.

Scouting the Vols:
The #11 Vols opened the season with ugly wins against #94 Virginia (49-13) and #163 Austin Peay (30-13). Against UVA they outgained the Cavaliers 499 to 201 (212 yards passing, 287 rushing). They ran 85 plays in a very high ops tempo offense. The following week the Vols defense surrendered 339 yards to Austin Peay to their 456.

Scouting the Gators:
The #39 Gators are coming off a 49-7 drubbing of inferior McNeese, which was a win the team desperately needed to build confidence for this matchup. The Gator offense will likely run about 55 plays. They were able to rattle off 84 plays against outmatched McNeese, but that will probably not happen this week unless Austin Peay's 75 plays was not a fluke. The Florida Gators average of 453.0 yards per game (40th). On the down side, the Florida offense has compiled 66 yds of penalties on 13 infractions, which is good for 51st in terms of helping out the opposition. They average 170.0 yards per game via the rush and have run for 340 yards in total. They have tossed 1 interception while losing 1 fumble and they have obtained 50 1st downs. In relation to the points being put on the board, the Gators are sitting 66th in the nation holding an average of 30.0 points per game. For the season to this point, the Gators have a total of 566 passing yards in addition to an average of 283.0 throwing yards per contest, ranking them 39th in college football.

Florida has surrendered a total of 151 yards on the ground (75.5 yards per game) as well as 3 touchdowns via the rush so far this season. They have allowed 1 touchdown through the air in addition to 115.5 yards per outing, which has them ranked 8th in the country. Their defense has totaled 0 fumbles and 0 picks this year. The Gators defense has taken the field for 93 plays, which ranks 2nd in D-1. The Gators are relinquishing 15.5 PPG, which has them ranked 37th in college football. Last week the Gator defense held its opponent to the fewest yards in 88 games, a 53-yard defensive stand against North Texas on September 17, 2016. In 2016 the defense kept the Gators in the SEC East hunt in a 9-4 season, which would be a nice model to follow in 2023.

Summary of 2022:
In last year’s meeting, Florida totaled 594 yards including a season-high 453 passing yards from QB Anthony Richardson, which ranked ninth all-time in program history. #20 Florida out-gained #11 Tennessee, 594-576, and also out-passed the Vols, 453-349 in a 33-38 loss in Knoxville.
Game StatUFUT
1st Downs3127
3rd down efficiency7-156-9
4th down efficiency5-60-2
Total Yards594576
Total Plays8770
Passing453349
Comp-Att24-4522-28
Yards per pass10.112.5
Interceptions thrown10
Rushing141227
Rushing Attempts4242
Yards per rush3.45.4
Penalties10-476-50
Turnovers22
Fumbles lost12
Interceptions thrown10
Possession34:5725:03

Editor's Pick:
The Vols are favored to win by 6.5 with an over/under of 59. The Gators have an opportunity to get this program right, but the Vols are more talented and will use tempo tire out the Gator defense and end the 20-year victory drought in the Swamp. As long as the Gators play disciplined football, control the clock, and slow down the frenetic pace of Halzle's offense the Gators should be able to squeeze past Tennessee under the lights of the Swamp, 36-32.

Season Stat (through Week 2)UFUT
Total Yards453.0477.5
Total Offense906 (#40)955 (#26)
Total Passing Yards566 (#39)440 (#81)
Yards Passing Per Game283.0220.0
Total Rushing Yards340 (#60)515 (#4)
Yards Rushing Per Game170.0257.5
Total Defense382 (#3)540 (#29)
Yards Allowed Per Game191.0270.0
Pass Yards Allowed Per Game115.5183.0
Rush Yards Allowed Per Game75.587.0
 
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DRU2012

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Hard to separate hype and supposed "current trends" (that is, as trumpeted hither and yon by all the so-called "experts") on the one hand, and the way SEC "rivalry games" generally go--this one in PARTICULAR--from a HISTORICAL perspective.
For my part, after the way things looked in our opener, and ESPECIALLY against the background of how the Vols have progressed the last couple of seasons (as opposed to OUR comparative "lack thereof"), I had TRIED to exert great limits on my expectations for this one...
However, whether it was encouraging "signs of promise and recovery" in what amounts so far to "still very early" in this season, or simply ongoing faith in our Coach and team, as the week goes on I find that hopeless pessimism has been steadily displaced by that old tight mixture of hope and dread, swirling through my gut.
I want this one bad...As Gator fans we ALL long for a return to rising hope and confidence in the future of our team. We aren't ready to challenge for Championships yet, but a win at home over these guys is something we HAVE managed before--and to pull it off NOW would be nicely and encouragingly well-timed for MANY reasons.
 

Escambia94

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It will be 7,297 days since Tennessee has beaten Florida in the Swamp. This will be the last annual rivalry game between these two blue bloods, so we need to go out with a bang under the lights with the new LED light show.
 

Escambia94

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This matchup between Florida and Tennessee will be a rematch between Graham Mertz and Joe Milton’s Wisconsin vs Michigan game in 2020!
IMG_0186.jpeg





C/ATTYDSAVGTDINTQBR
Graham Mertz12/221275.82067.2
Joe Milton III9/19985.2026.6
 

DRU2012

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This matchup between Florida and Tennessee will be a rematch between Graham Mertz and Joe Milton’s Wisconsin vs Michigan game in 2020!
View attachment 845




C/ATTYDSAVGTDINTQBR
Graham Mertz12/221275.82067.2
Joe Milton III9/19985.2026.6
Wow. Hadn't even realized this wrinkle (let alone taken it into account).
How relevant IS it to our game?
Most (especially among Vols fans and players OR the outside "prognosticators") will insist "Very little..."
However, somehow it seems there's SOMETHING there--I'm not at ALL sure what, to be honest, just that from the instant I saw your post here it struck me as germane SOMEhow.
Gonna set it aside for the moment; Let's take a look at the final score before further comment.
 

DRU2012

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Let's say THIS much now:
From what we've seen so far, Graham Mertz and this Gator offense looks CAPABLE of scoring like that, and this Defense MAY well be able to make it stick. It all rests on both units, offense AND defense, having clean, solid play the whole way.
And of course the third unit, Special Teams, at the very least doesn't give anything AWAY this time!
 

DRU2012

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Now of course Finebaum had to put HIS "two cents" out there, so today he comes out with:
"For Billy Napier, Tennessee is a must win game"
Now, when it's casual sports fans, even GATOR fans making such a stupid statement at this point it is out of complete.blind ignorance.
Paul doesn't HAVE that excuse. The ONLY reason he would say that is BECAUSE IT IS so "public"...He is saying it for the sake of the Gator-haters who comprise a large portion of the mainly Alabama fans who give him his career...
The same fans currently absolutely freaking out post-Texas loss, actually now ready to run Nick Saban outta Tuscaloosa on a rail!
Look: We'd ALL love to win this one. All KINDS of reasons why...and it sure might pull the howling dogs off Napier's a** for at least a few weeks (MAYBE!). And there ARE scenarios where that could happen. But as big as this game is, it isn't "make or break" regarding his future as our Coach. The main thing that is "REQUIRED" is for his team to continue to show strength, growth and improvement fairly steadily, game by game. They HAVE to continue to look better than they did in Game One.
Like y'all I am both worried and excited heading into this Saturday's game in the Swamp. I'm ALREADY tired of all the talk:
Whereas I enjoyed and listened right through Ali Peek's YouTube offering with Chris Doerring, which included HIS take on the outlook for this game--along with his general overview of our Coach, the future and the growth of our team and program.
Then there's another one of hers released just hours ago focusing exclusively on the Tennessee game alone. Then began watching Dave Waters' latest "Gator Breakdown" piece he shares this time with a supposed major Vols online contributor...I got maybe 10 minutes into HIS uninterrupted admiring love-note to Josh Heuppel and the current state of his program (including repeated claims that "...with his rocket arm, QB Milton shows ANY accuracy and we win this one EASILY!") and had had ENOUGH: I cut him off...
I tried ON-3's take, but got one of their suspected anti-Gators...I finally tried Josh Pate's podcast regarding this one and found a certain even-handedness for a change and decided to LEAVE IT AT THAT, quit while I'm ahead...I am pretty well determined to do myself a favor and for the most part NOT monitor anymore of the Yada Yada Yada leading up to this week's actual GAME.
 

Escambia94

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This is not a must win game, but it sure would buy a lot of good faith from the Gator Nation. Napier would need to commit murder in order to be fired before year 4, but he will be killing his own career if he does not get at least one win over a ranked opponent this year. Tennessee is the easiest of the ranked opponents on the schedule. If he cannot beat the #11 Vols he probably will not beat #1 Georgia, #14 LSU (assuming they get better), or #3 FSU.
 

DRU2012

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This is not a must win game, but it sure would buy a lot of good faith from the Gator Nation. Napier would need to commit murder in order to be fired before year 4, but he will be killing his own career if he does not get at least one win over a ranked opponent this year. Tennessee is the easiest of the ranked opponents on the schedule. If he cannot beat the #11 Vols he probably will not beat #1 Georgia, #14 LSU (assuming they get better), or #3 FSU.
Exactly.
As for myself, and MY feelings regarding the probable outcome of this game:
I've been back and forth, up and down, from one extreme to the other in terms of what I think will happen...My guts are in KNOTS at this point.
This will be a tough one to watch--I want it so bad, but I KNOW we aren't where we need to be yet...win or lose, we have a long way to go to become the team that regularly BEATS even our improved rivals because we are the BETTER TEAM AND PROGRAM, deep in talent and well-coached.
We are NOT yet there. I understand our current shortcomings; realistically, we should be satisfied in seeing continued unmistakable progress across the board in all areas from last season and the first game in THIS one.
But we too are Gators:
We long to see our guys go out and BEAT THE VOLS! Beat 'em again at HOME.
Will they pull it off? I have no clue. I'll be watching Saturday, despite my trepidation...I may even be angry if they fall into old bad habits.
But I want (and will CONTINUE to want) to see this Coach and his staff the necessary time to see their "Full Rebuild" THROUGH.
And yes, that deserves AT LEAST two more seasons after this one!
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
I am not a betting man, but Vegas seems to like Florida’s chances today. I saw on Reddit that 47% of the media predicts Florida covering the 5.5-point spread (down from 6.5) and 36% predict an outright win. 59% pick the over on the 56-point total.

Neither team is executing well, so I assume many points will be generated off short fields after turnovers.
 

DRU2012

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I am not a betting man, but Vegas seems to like Florida’s chances today. I saw on Reddit that 47% of the media predicts Florida covering the 5.5-point spread (down from 6.5) and 36% predict an outright win. 59% pick the over on the 56-point total.

Neither team is executing well, so I assume many points will be generated off short fields after turnovers.
We have GOT to begin generating some turnovers. I think you're right: They may make the difference here:
I doubt we can win without at LEAST one or two ourselves in the Swamp tonight.
 

DRU2012

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Couldn't help myself...Had the opening moments of game on RUF...Nice drive, then total collapse just outside red zone. Even blew medium kick.
Already Special Teams letting us down.
I cannot stomach where this is heading.
Will go back to Plan A: Will tune back in later, see if they improve WITHOUT me.
(Think I'll leave you all up on my laptop: If something GATOR GOOD happens let me know HERE, OK?)
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
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Good: Gators scored a TD
Bad: Gators missed the PAT
Ugly: Tre Wilson likely out
 

DRU2012

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Well, I accidently hit the remote button to punch up ESPN just in tune to see UT score on us...
All in all, a two-score swing to start things here.
Go naose--probably badly now.
DAMN. Didn't LOOK bad on offense se to begin it
BUT NOW ETIENNE TAKES IT TO THE HOUSE!
UT then we miss A OTHER kick--thos time the pa.
We simply SUCK on the kicking game.
I mean, that is FOUR POINTS RIGHT HERE TO START WITH. Gonna HAVE to win this BIG:
We will lose a close game now having donated those points already.
 
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