"THEY" Are Talking About Us Again

[DRU2012]

That's right...
It's Sunday morning, "Week 1" of the 2022 college football season (in a year where there was a "Week 0" last week AND still some remaining play on Sunday after all the late Saturday results (including our OWN Big Play on the INT to save our Big WIN!)...
Sure enough, the various "Talking Heads" are once again talking Gator Football on the Sunday morning "Post Mortem" shows!
All it took was us knocking off the No. 7 Utah "Utes" in The Swamp with a
late INT in the endzone to save the late lead we'd just rode AR's dazzling MOVES to retake in the first place (I just watched that whole sequence AGAIN on College Football Final--and of course LOVE EVERY MOMENT EVERY TIME!)..

 

[Escambia94]

The Gators were the only underdog SEC team in week 1, so that is worth a discussion. The SEC went 13-0 with LSU likely to make it 14-0, but Florida was the only one to beat last year’s conference champion. The talk will continue if Florida can slowly climb the rankings. They will likely land around #24 in the next ranking if this updated FPI ranking is an indicator.

 

[DRU2012]

Some say we may be ranked higher than that...
Me, at least for the moment I prefer not getting involved in all that: At this still early point in the season and our evolving climb back to "the promised land", much more important and pertinent is our continued growth--and of course, somehow gaining victories, if we can.
I recommend that y'all check out Bianchi's latest article (Sunday, September 3) in the Orlando Sentinel, "Wowie Zowie: What a Start".
His leading point is that it sure LOOKS like Billy Napier is "The One"--the Coach who will finally bring UF back to its former glory...Either he is, he says, or perhaps it just can't be DONE after all.
That, and the likely reality that Anthony Richardson, should he stay healthy, will be so central to whatever success we have this season that somewhat sadly (I suppose for we fans anyway) he will be gone next year: The pro scouts were already lacking their chops during summer training camp...Now, after just one game, the debate isn't "IF" but "How High???" he will go in the Draft.
One more reason for us all to just try to relax and take it "game-by-game": We're a young team under a new regime...There will likely be some bumps in the road ahead--especially with our SEC schedule about to get under way. How many wins we'll be able to pull out of it all will probably depend on our young QB's mad skills. Enjoy him, and whatever ensues, while he's here.
Beyond that, well, Billy more and more DOES look like "the real deal"--and one definitely gets the impression he is one who is thinking, planning ahead. I hope I am ABLE to practice what I am preaching:
"Relax, trust, and enjoy the ride!"

 

[Escambia94]

If we assume the FPI somewhat tracks the polls, the Gators have a few opportunities to climb into the top 10.
- If # 23 Florida beats # 20 Kentucky then Florida climbs into the top 20.
- If # 20 Florida beats # 10-15 Tennessee then Florida climbs into the top 15.
- If # 15 Florida beats # 10-15 LSU then Florida is knocking at the top 10 heading into the Cocktail Party against # 2 Georgia.
- Assume at best that the Gators are hovering around # 10-14 even with a loss to Georgia. I will not posit beating # 2-3 Georgia due to low likelihood of it happening. Obviously, beating UGA in an unlikely scenario makes this speculation much easier.
- If # 10-14 Florida can pull off an upset against Texas A&M that puts the Gators in the top 10.

The Gators could work their way into the top 10 by beating higher ranked teams. The Gators are unranked because the only data points we have are from last year, and of this new data point against Utah is not a fluke there is no reason the Gators cannot climb the rankings one game at a time.

 

[DRU2012]

Again: Actual results in the next few weeks will render all of the above either "relevant" or not.
I'd be lying if I claimed I wasn't reading and following your analysis AVIDLY, E--...but it is just as true that I don't MEAN to CARE so much about all that at this point!
As I have maintained at various times in various ways, personally I am TRYING to temper my expectations for now; I am endeavoring to just take this month in stride, game by game.
OK. So we managed to pace ourselves rather well and TAKE that first hurdle successfully.
Now comes our SEC opener against a much-heralded UK team that isn't at all our "traditional whipping boy" anymore.
Still, our first team matches up well BOTH sides of the ball and we get 'em at home (which is starting to be the big plus it used to be, if Week 1 was any indication).
For the moment, I continue to refrain from "looking ahead". It ain't easy for me, trust me.

 

[Leakfan12]

It's nice but it's one game.

 

[DRU2012]

It's nice but it's one game.

Exactly.

 

[Escambia94]

Note that FPI is predictive and is not directly affected by outcomes of games—at least not until there are updates to the offensive and defensive scoring efficiency in the algorithm. The Florida victory did force and update to the FPI prediction algorithm because the team is becoming more efficient at scoring and preventing scoring—hence the new FPI ranking. The actual AP or coach’s ranking might stay about the same unless higher ranked teams lost.

Break, break: the FPI tends to track the polls. In that case, the Florida victory over Utah does move the needle. That is where speculation takes over. Based on FPI alone, Florida is still the 23rd most efficient team and is not expected to beat Utah, Kentucky, Tennessee, or LSU. The post above is not intended to convey excessive optimism based on one game. All that the post is saying is that the team is becoming more efficient than last year and if that trend continues they can beat better teams as they did against Utah. According to the FPI Florida should not have beaten Utah, yet it did. The Gators need to keep doing that if they want to break into the top 10. As of September 5th they are still not that good and should be ranked between 20-25.

 

[DRU2012]

Note that FPI is predictive and is not directly affected by outcomes of games—at least not until there are updates to the offensive and defensive scoring efficiency in the algorithm. The Florida victory did force and update to the FPI prediction algorithm because the team is becoming more efficient at scoring and preventing scoring—hence the new FPI ranking. The actual AP or coach’s ranking might stay about the same unless higher ranked teams lost.

Break, break: the FPI tends to track the polls. In that case, the Florida victory over Utah does move the needle. That is where speculation takes over. Based on FPI alone, Florida is still the 23rd most efficient team and is not expected to beat Utah, Kentucky, Tennessee, or LSU. The post above is not intended to convey excessive optimism based on one game. All that the post is saying is that the team is becoming more efficient than last year and if that trend continues they can beat better teams as they did against Utah. According to the FPI Florida should not have beaten Utah, yet it did. The Gators need to keep doing that if they want to break into the top 10. As of September 5th they are still not that good and should be ranked between 20-25.

Alright. But according to the "Eyetest" from my "Mark One Eyeball Instrument" thus far, we are likely better than the LSU team that lost to FSU at home last night--and though Kentucky may still be a mainly "unknown quantity" until we actually play them this week, the continued development of OUR team, weighed against growing evidence for ALL programs going forward from here will mean shifting relative outlooks...Let's see what happens Saturday before turning to Tennessee and beyond. If ever there was a season and situation to "Take things game-by-game" it is this one.
Last week, in the lead up to Week 1 in The Swamp, I said "We upset Utah and all bets are OFF..."
Well, now I say "Let it RIDE!":
We're just BEGINNING to see who the "players" (in this case, our future opponents) really are, and what kind of hand we're dealt here.
So many of these early games (including our own) have come down to a last-minute, or even last-SECOND break deciding the outcome that at a certain point "statistics" don't matter.
That sure appears to describe OUR chances, game by game...That's why I prefer to at least TRY to take this early going "in stride"--easy on the "predictive analysis". We're just not any kind of "consistent powerhouse" yet, on either side of the ball. Not even much of a "known quantity".
But we've got possibilities, mostly thanks to our new Head Coach, I think.