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Week 10 Reaction: Gator Game Changers Change the Game…for Arkansas

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
Not much to say here. The Gators are not very good, especially against the SEC West.
ARKFLA
Score3936
1st Downs2319
3rd down efficiency8-188-17
4th down efficiency0-00-0
Total Yards481394
Passing255282
Comp-Att20-3126-42
Yards per pass8.26.7
Interceptions thrown10
Rushing226112
Rushing Attempts4728
Yards per rush4.84.0
Penalties6-457-55
Turnovers21
Fumbles lost11
Interceptions thrown10
Possession29:4630:14
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
Just in case you need the numbers to argue with Gator fans on the Internet… Here is what it would cost to fire Billy Napier:

  • 2023: Billy Napier’s buyout would be $31.9M (85% of $37.5M)
  • 2024: Billy Napier’s buyout would be $25.7M (85% of $30.2M)
  • 2025: Billy Napier’s buyout would be $19.4M (85% of $22.8M)
  • 2026: Billy Napier’s buyout would be $13.0M (85% of $15.3M)
  • 2027: Billy Napier’s buyout would be $6.6M (85% of 7.7M)
Here is a list of buyouts for the last few coaches:
  • Jim McElwain $7.5M (negotiated down from $12.9M)
  • Dan Mullen $12.0M
  • Will Muschamp $6.3M
  • Ron Zook $1.8M
TLDR: Florida cannot afford to fire Billy Napier until 2026! Even that is a stretch.
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
For comparison, Jimbo Fisher’s buyout is much higher:
  • 2023: $76.8M
  • 2024: $67.6M
  • 2025: $58.2M
  • 2026: $48.8M
  • 2027: $39.2M
  • 2028: $29.6M
  • 2029: $19.8M
  • 2030: $10.0M
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
@Escambia94, (--in reply to above)
Like I said in my last post on the gameday thread:
While I continue to support Napier and staff's regime and general plan, I have reached my near-LIMIT in pain and frustration at the ways we find to come up short.
Now, ANYONE who thought it should be fast or EASY to come in here and turn this thing around in the FIRST place, or that it can or will be a short shot from HERE, is an ass and an idiot.
So far I THINK we are on the right track.
However: I'm simply NOT so sure that I can personally, patiently absorb these countless, seemingly endless let-downs to similar degree much longer.
I may well HAVE to give it a break; at the very least, go easy on myself for the remainder of THIS season anyway. Judging by NEXT season's difficult schedule, maybe into 2024 as WELL--We will have to see.
Now, turning to FINANCIAL factors and their consideration, assuming that you are right in your estimations of "first convergence of price and affordability", by 2026 (LATEST) we SHOULD have seen undeniable "positive upward benefits" blossoming forth under this Coach ONFIELD, in GAMES...and by 2027 REPEAT participation in the multi-program CFB Playoffs. Failing that, "moving on" will hardly be controversial by then!
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
Honestly, I don't know what to say. Good Offense but the Defense..........
Yes--this one was particularly (GALLINGLY) frustrating, from start to FINISH.
I have a feeling that for the balance of THIS season, at any rate, my role will mainly be to somehow help us console OURSELVES for a growing HEAP of "More-of-the-SAME" that is headed our WAY...even as I am venting it myself!
We are more lost than ever in our vain search for a possible "ONE MORE WIN" in the dangerous darkness ahead...We can but stumble on into and through it, prone to all its unseen hazards.
I cannot but wonder: If we could not manage success with one eye open, how will we fare fully BLIND?
For that describes our pending fate from here, it seems to ME.
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
...Meanwhile, as far as any "consolation" or "calm reassurance" I am willing to offer--it is for team and REALISTIC FANS alone...
I have little to offer--and indeed, little in sympathy or shared compassion--for the spoiled, "entitled" Gator fans (unfortunately, it would seem, the vast majority of those making their voices and feelings clear out there, whether online postgame or booing at the wrong things, in the wrong places, at a HOME GAME--and one with a noble objective in its theme and advance support) who numerically seem to dominate this "Nation of Gators".
It is their RIGHT, of course--but one that I am careful to distance myself from: I may have a plethora of questions, voice frustration without hesitation--but I try to keep it all within the boundaries and awareness of my own fallibility. Not to mention the frustration and impatience that of course afflicts us ALL as "fans". Above all, I try NOT to lose perspective as to all our shared ultimate GOALS--and those are "shared" In HUGE PART by Coach and team in quantities and intensity that in most cases DWARF our own!
Never forget that, fellow Gators.
(Those that do--or WORSE, never realize or consider it in the first place--are the ones I have little use or concern for...They'll be back IN DROVES once we put it together and begin the real "Steady Climb Back to the TOP"--as we WILL.
I just hope they do NOT get any real say in whatever forces play out behind-the-scenes in the meantime, ya know what I'm sayin'?)
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
I do not think Napier is the guy to win national championships, but he is the guy that needs to learn how to clean up the guts of the program so the next guy can win national championships. In a perfect world, Kerwin Bell is that guy. Instead of paying $38M to fire Napier plus $60M to bring in the next head coach, offer Kerwin Bell $2M to be offensive coordinator and head coach in waiting. Tell Kerwin to have his own staff on standby in 2024 and be prepared to negotiate a $40M contract for him if Napier falls below 0.500 in 2024. It would be an uncomfortable situation for Napier to have a head coach in waiting breathing down his neck, but enough money with a solid succession plan is worth the pain. Even at $2M as OC, that would be his best salary ever and would compensate him for not being head coach as he likes— especially with understanding that he would be next head coach. His love of his alma mater would be a selling point.
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
I do not think Napier is the guy to win national championships, but he is the guy that needs to learn how to clean up the guts of the program so the next guy can win national championships. In a perfect world, Kerwin Bell is that guy. Instead of paying $38M to fire Napier plus $60M to bring in the next head coach, offer Kerwin Bell $2M to be offensive coordinator and head coach in waiting. Tell Kerwin to have his own staff on standby in 2024 and be prepared to negotiate a $40M contract for him if Napier falls below 0.500 in 2024. It would be an uncomfortable situation for Napier to have a head coach in waiting breathing down his neck, but enough money with a solid succession plan is worth the pain. Even at $2M as OC, that would be his best salary ever and would compensate him for not being head coach as he likes— especially with understanding that he would be next head coach. His love of his alma mater would be a selling point. @Leakfan12,
@Escambia94, @Leakfan12,
I don't know if the above can happen...
For one thing, no matter WHAT the buy-out, I'm doubtful Napier would accept a situation he would see developing the moment it was proposed.
I would see its sense and eventual practicality, but there is some question as to how it would sit with the players: Would this mess with the very real "Team-as-family-as-ONE" that is truly building? Cause it to falter, begin to evaporate?
However, SOMETHING (or things) need to change, and soon, or Billy will NOT make it here.
It won't be THIS year--but NEXT season's schedule is shaping up even more difficult than 2023...Regardless of continued recruiting prowess, another losing record PLUS a failure to correct the bulk of the numerous self-inflicted damage and onfield carnages WILL lead to the lines of sinking ticket sales and rising frustration to meet SOONER than otherwise--and if there is ANYONE who may "fit the bill" available he could be gone by 2025 after ALL.
Frankly, as a strong supporter of Billy Napier, AND a practical analyst of the various factors currently amounting to his ongoing "protection" as our Coach, I am a little surprised to see you bluntly disown your appraisal of his chances to "win Championships", E--.
Now, I'M lately beginning to approach a similar conclusion. I must tell you: in any "final analysis", the key moments of failure have to be ultimately pinned on our Coach. I won't bother rehashing all the ways that was true--See Ali Peaks' excellent (if unusually angry and frustrated) postgame podcast for a fairly concise (as in unblinkingly frank and open) recitation of all that was and IS BROKEN on our side--but I have to agree and echo her outrage regarding Special Teams, it's direct effect on our not making the fg to win the thing (which by-the-way might not have been necessary in the FIRST place if not for a bad snap/missed point-after earlier!), and our COACH'S continued direct responsibility for it ONCE AGAIN: We get a 5-yard penalty because of the vague way special teams is run, and wattayaknow? Our reliable kicker barely MISSES a 44-yarder that probably squeeks INSIDE the right upright from 39!
HEY--We are NOT alone in our deteriorating confidence in Billy: Ali isn't the only normally clear-eyed Gator SUPPORTER who is nearing the "throw up our hands" point.
So: having said all of that, we ARE perhaps nearing that same old place again after all...and I too would love to see Kerwin Bell at LEAST a PART of this team. Given the circumstances, bringing him in as OC might make a lot if sense--IF it were something that our current Coach could well accept and function with. I am unaware of any kind of relationship between them. Do they even KNOW each other? Because if there's going to BE a new OC brought on board, it will have to happen by shortly after this season winds down (if we happened to somehow make it to a bowl game after all, it'd be a bonus to bring one in BY THEN and begin the eventual "shakedown process". God knows THIS team NEEDS all the help and practice it can get in such situations.
But by January or so at the LATEST, I think, whomever it will be (IF it will be!) Would best be in place.
Yesterday's game really WAS a "microcosm of our ongoing failures". For all frustrations and disappointments this season has brought, THIS particular Sunday morning is the first where I awoke to little yet in the way of relief, of at least the START of "rational reevaluation".
I woke up MORE FRUSTRATED STILL!
For most of the first couple of hours I have done little but replay the failures and breakdowns--and that is DESPITE efforts to move on, gain insight and perspective from others who are normally more knowledgeable and circumspect than I.
Not THIS time. They are clearly at LEAST as, if not MORE, battered, confused, even FED UP than I. Nothing a surprising (if unlikely) WIN wouldn't cure at this point--but suppose one isn't forthcoming, as is entirely possible, my friends?
What happens then?
I ask this because I feel perhaps a damn is building, an impasse behind which tremendous pressure will continue to build.
Strange things can come of such forces.
One more weird outcome, courtesy of a season's worth of frustration and one more poor decision-- "ONE MORE BAD PLAY"!
This Head Coach cannot keep answering the same old questions the "same old way", seemingly dismissing their underlying validity.
He needs to face and answer certain of them in a straight and forthright manner, one where HE takes responsibility--NOT try and throw it back in the asker's face with that wide-eyed, "What are you talking about?"-attitude..."That's not what I saw..." cannot continue to BE his go-to response.
Not the way this team keeps messing up out there. Now they face nothing but hot, well-functioning teams playing for the post-season.
Not the best time to be flounderingly still trying to "find yourselves".
Though I normally watch at least ONE game replay, win or lose, at present I cannot envision doing so for this one. Not saying I WON'T--but at present I just cannot bare to relive all the moments I am already starkly replaying in my HEAD...I know that's at most only a PORTION of the misery in store come a proper "re-watch" (sound off, for sure), so it will have to wait (maybe forever--LOL...Is this one of those "Throw the film AWAY!" moments?).
No matter what I do, nothing will change whatever ensues these last few games, nor the fans' likely vicious vocal reaction to it.
The players will blame themselves--NOT "each other", mind you: This IS more and more developing into "a good TEAM", one that is SUPPORTIVE of those around them, a true "brotherhood". With time, talent, and organized discipline this can, WILL make a huge difference.
For the moment, though, it is currently at COACHING where the strength and "winning edge" must originate.
I guess we are all now beginning to wonder if it is indeed forthcoming.
 
Last edited:

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
Shane Matthews said it best, and I will summarize. Florida played football for 85 years before Steve Spurrier came along and won a conference championship outright and a national championship in year 90. That coach is a Hall of Fame member. Urban Meyer walked into a decent situation where Ron Zook was an excellent recruiter (classes ranked in the top 5 despite 7-5 seasons), and the program was in good but slightly declining shape. Meyer re-energized the program and earned two national championships, but it burned him out and his penchant for recruiting troubled kids hurt the overall program. Despite that he proved he is a HOF caliber coach by winning another championship at Ohio State. That is two HOF caliber coaches in 102 years of football. There are 82 teams without a single national championship, so we should consider ourselves fortunate, and not be so spoiled by success. Billy Napier does not need to be the next Spurrier or Meyer. He just needs to field competitive teams that do not embarrass the Gator Nation. He does not even need to live up to the Ray Graves standard of winning 6-9 games a year before stepping up as athletic director. He just needs to be a good coach fielding good teams. That is the Gator Standard.

The danger here is comparing UF to FSU and UGA. UGA is set up for a decade long dynasty with their version of Steve Spurrier— an alumnus with experience gained elsewhere to apply to the peak of his coaching potential. FSU has not reached that level yet, but they might and that sucks. We should worry about Florida, which plays in the SEC where everything from recruiting to playing is just more difficult than it is in the ACC.
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
Shane Matthews said it best, and I will summarize. Florida played football for 85 years before Steve Spurrier came along and won a conference championship outright and a national championship in year 90. That coach is a Hall of Fame member. Urban Meyer walked into a decent situation where Ron Zook was an excellent recruiter (classes ranked in the top 5 despite 7-5 seasons), and the program was in good but slightly declining shape. Meyer re-energized the program and earned two national championships, but it burned him out and his penchant for recruiting troubled kids hurt the overall program. Despite that he proved he is a HOF caliber coach by winning another championship at Ohio State. That is two HOF caliber coaches in 102 years of football. There are 82 teams without a single national championship, so we should consider ourselves fortunate, and not be so spoiled by success. Billy Napier does not need to be the next Spurrier or Meyer. He just needs to field competitive teams that do not embarrass the Gator Nation. He does not even need to live up to the Ray Graves standard of winning 6-9 games a year before stepping up as athletic director. He just needs to be a good coach fielding good teams. That is the Gator Standard.

The danger here is comparing UF to FSU and UGA. UGA is set up for a decade long dynasty with their version of Steve Spurrier— an alumnus with experience gained elsewhere to apply to the peak of his coaching potential. FSU has not reached that level yet, but they might and that sucks. We should worry about Florida, which plays in the SEC where everything from recruiting to playing is just more difficult than it is in the ACC.
Upon further thought and consideration (not to mention a re-reading of my OWN entry above AND this one from Escambia94), I see, understand and accept this overview (and have found and read Shane's referred-to offering as well--normally one of my reliable postgame reads but having been thus far MISSED at this time (until a little while ago) mainly due to having been thoroughly steeped--to the point of being overwhelmed--in depressed frustration at the debacle that was Saturday's embarrassingly bad home loss.
Ye GODS, that was a miserable performance; despite some small moments of grace (like coming back at ALL), really just a collection of "all the same old things that continue to be WRONG WITH THIS TEAM AND PROGRAM.
I must tell you, as I find myself in the second day of what has turned out to be, if ANYTHING, a DEEPENING sense of hope and loss at what we are seeing right there ON THE FIELD:
Billy indeed may not, as he says, "be responsible for the patience of the fans", but he IS the builder and leader of the TEAM at the focus of a NATION'S worth of hopes and dreams for the future. Like it or not, his fate will rise or fall based on how all that is manifest onfield on Saturdays during football season.
So far, he is LOSING GROUND in that particular challenge. It may well accelerate downward from here, at least for now. We are already beginning to discuss the question of how LONG that will be permitted to go on.
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
Nothing against Napier. I support him and I like him, but he is Florida’s version of Butch Jones at Tennessee. Likable and generally good for the program, but not talented enough to win big games.

This is why we need someone like Kerwin Bell to get some experience as OC at Florida and line him up as the head coach in waiting. If not Kerwin, then someone who spans the Napier administration and the next one who can parlay Napier’s recruiting skills into championships.
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
Nothing against Napier. I support him and I like him, but he is Florida’s version of Butch Jones at Tennessee. Likable and generally good for the program, but not talented enough to win big games.

This is why we need someone like Kerwin Bell to get some experience as OC at Florida and line him up as the head coach in waiting. If not Kerwin, then someone who spans the Napier administration and the next one who can parlay Napier’s recruiting skills into championships.
I am coming more and more to see things pretty much the same way. I just do not know if such a "smoothly logical" attitude and process can possibly prevail in these times--not in emotionally crippled Gator Nation.
 

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