Who Can Replace Billy Napier?

[Escambia94]

I am not saying that Billy Napier should be fired now or that Florida can afford to fire him, but whom do we think is on Scott Stricklin’s list?

Name	School	Salary, millions	Buyout, millions	Wins	Losses	Total Win %	Current or Last School Win %	Notes
Urban Meyer	N/A. ESPN.	UNK	N/A	187	32	85.39%	90.22%	Not a likely candidate to return to Florida.
Dan Mullen	N/A. ESPN.	UNK	$1.0M/ yr until 2027	103	60	63.19%	70.83%	Not a likely candidate to return to Florida.
Brian Kelly	LSU	$9.00M	Up to $4M through 2025*	282	103	73.25%	73.10%	Good candidate but probably would not go to Florida.
Kalen DeBoer	Washington	$4.20M	$10.0M through 2025	103	11	90.35%	92.31%	Good candidate.
Lane Kiffin	Ole Miss	$4.50M	$0.00	94	49	69.63%	65.00%	Good candidate.
James Franklin	Penn State	$5.50M	$4.00	90	47	65.69%	68.75%	Not a good fit at Florida.
Luke Fickell	Wisconsin	$7.50M	$8.00	71	30	70.30%	76.27%	Good candidate but probably would not go to Florida.
Billy Napier	Florida	$7.50M	85% of TCV through 2027	37	12	66.23%	44.00%	Good candidate in 2022. TBD future.
Mark Stoops	Kentucky	$5.00M	$1.75M	73	64	53.64%	53.64%	Average candidate but probably would not go to Florida.
Eli Drinkwitz	Missouri	$6.00M	N/A.	39	22	63.93%	56.25%	Average candidate but probably would not go to Florida.
Jedd Fisch	Arizona	$2.00M	65%	16	22	42.11%	41.67%	Interesting candidate as UF alumnus.
Jeff Hafley	Boston College	$3.00M	$0.00	21	26	57.14%	44.68%	Average candidate.
Jamey Chadwell	Liberty	$4.00M	$0.00	112	57	66.27%	100.0%	Average candidate. Needs P5 experience.
Jeff Lebby	Mississippi State	$4.51M	$0.00	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	Not a good candidate.
Kerwin Bell	Western Carolina	$277k	N/A	110	58	65.48%	51.51%	Not likely. Interesting hire as UF alumnus. Needs P5 experience.

 

[DRU2012]

@Escambia94,
I don't exactly find much heat at the thought of ANY of the above...do you?
That, as much as the buy-out price on Napier, is why I continue to doubt its likely happening anytime soon.
Might as well let Billy "Clean house", maybe in the meantime (albeit, as it turns out) more slowly than we'd hoped up the talent level at UF Football while we weather the harrowing changes in rules and scheduling over the next season or two.
THEN we'll see where we AND the whole CFB-WORLD stands, who's available and where we all stand.

 

[Leakfan12]

How about Alex Golseh? Gus Malzhan? Tom Herman? Chris Petersen?

I do like DeBoer, Fisch, even Kiffin.

 

[DRU2012]

How about Alex Golseh? Gus Malzhan? Tom Herman? Chris Petersen?

I do like DeBoer, Fisch, even Kiffin.

@Leakfan12,
If all we aspire to is "getting back to some 9- or 10-win seasons", that's probably a workable list.
Truth is, though, far as even THAT seems beyond us now, it just won't DO: We absolutely MUST be able to envision this program once again competing annually for a real shot at CHAMPIONSHIPS.
Unless/UNTIL there is a name or names on such a list that rings THAT "bell", given the overall depth of the muddy lowlands in which we currently wallow, there seems little reason to dig ourselves deeper with someone besides the guy we have right now--Billy Napier.
And who knows? If he gets a little demonstrably ANGRIER, plus brings in the right OC (along with a few more play-makimg weapons) and maybe we can make a bigger dent in that formidable 2024 Schedule than anyone expects!

 

[DRU2012]

(Admittedly, at this point I am grabbing at "stray straws"!)

 

[Escambia94]

How about Alex Golseh? Gus Malzhan? Tom Herman? Chris Petersen?

I do like DeBoer, Fisch, even Kiffin.

Alex Golesh only has 12 games as head coach and he is currently 6-6 and I will not waste my time looking at him until he has 50 games as head coach or he hits a major milestone.

Gus Malzahn is a name I had not considered, but he is 101-53 (0.6558). The knock against him is that just like Dan Mullen he has no NIL strategy and he does not seem to like recruiting.

Tom Herman is an interesting consideration. He is 58-30 (0.6591), but his downfall at Texas was his inability to recruit. He probably does not have an NIL strategy.

Chris Petersen was one of my recommendations to replace Will Muschamp and Jim McElwain back in the day. He has a record of 147-38 (0.7946). However, he has been out of coaching since 2019 and he may face the same challenges as the other candidates with a lack of NIL strategy and the ability to recruit.

All this is pointing to the reasons that Scott Stricklin picked Billy Napier. I know this because Stricklin said so when he hired Napier and most of the Gator Nation seems to have forgotten that everything that is happening now was foretold by Stricklin and Napier in November and December 2021. Jeremy Foley's last coaching hire was done by looking at wins and losses and offensive rankings. From that we got Jim McElwain whose offense with Doug Nussmeier worked great at Alabama with blue chip athletes that someone else recruited and look what happened when he showed up at Florida where Will Muschamp and his carousel of offensive coordinators recruited Florida's offense back into Vanderbilt level. Because of McElwain's failiure Stricklin put together a search committee that did the same thing--evaluate wins and losses and offensive rankings and we got Dan Mullen. Mullen has never been able to recruit. He nearly scared away Tim Tebow as Urban Meyer's OC and offensive recruiter. He never in his entire life recruited a 5-star QB without Urban Meyer's help or help from others, which was the case for Tebow, Newton, and Brantley. Tebow's recruiters were Greg Mattison and Dan Mullen, but in reality it was Urban Meyer. Cam Newton's recruiter was Stan Drayton, who has a good eye for talent and has grabbed some of the best recruits while he was at Florida, Texas, and Ohio State. John Brantley was a special case where he wanted to go to Texas but was probably coerced by his dad and uncle to go to Florida. The Brantleys are big donors to their alma mater. Urban Meyer knew how to work with school administrations, boosters, and wealthy investors. Scott Strickin thinks Billy Napier was the most like Urban Meyer in this regard, as evidenced by Napier's ability to bring Louisiana-Lafayette era under NCAA sanctions into a rebranded Louisiana era where they were on top of the conference for the first time in a century.

 

[DRU2012]

Alex Golesh only has 12 games as head coach and he is currently 6-6 and I will not waste my time looking at him until he has 50 games as head coach or he hits a major milestone.

Gus Malzahn is a name I had not considered, but he is 101-53 (0.6558). The knock against him is that just like Dan Mullen he has no NIL strategy and he does not seem to like recruiting.

Tom Herman is an interesting consideration. He is 58-30 (0.6591), but his downfall at Texas was his inability to recruit. He probably does not have an NIL strategy.

Chris Petersen was one of my recommendations to replace Will Muschamp and Jim McElwain back in the day. He has a record of 147-38 (0.7946). However, he has been out of coaching since 2019 and he may face the same challenges as the other candidates with a lack of NIL strategy and the ability to recruit.

All this is pointing to the reasons that Scott Stricklin picked Billy Napier. I know this because Stricklin said so when he hired Napier and most of the Gator Nation seems to have forgotten that everything that is happening now was foretold by Stricklin and Napier in November and December 2021. Jeremy Foley's last coaching hire was done by looking at wins and losses and offensive rankings. From that we got Jim McElwain whose offense with Doug Nussmeier worked great at Alabama with blue chip athletes that someone else recruited and look what happened when he showed up at Florida where Will Muschamp and his carousel of offensive coordinators recruited Florida's offense back into Vanderbilt level. Because of McElwain's failiure Stricklin put together a search committee that did the same thing--evaluate wins and losses and offensive rankings and we got Dan Mullen. Mullen has never been able to recruit. He nearly scared away Tim Tebow as Urban Meyer's OC and offensive recruiter. He never in his entire life recruited a 5-star QB without Urban Meyer's help or help from others, which was the case for Tebow, Newton, and Brantley. Tebow's recruiters were Greg Mattison and Dan Mullen, but in reality it was Urban Meyer. Cam Newton's recruiter was Stan Drayton, who has a good eye for talent and has grabbed some of the best recruits while he was at Florida, Texas, and Ohio State. John Brantley was a special case where he wanted to go to Texas but was probably coerced by his dad and uncle to go to Florida. The Brantleys are big donors to their alma mater. Urban Meyer knew how to work with school administrations, boosters, and wealthy investors. Scott Strickin thinks Billy Napier was the most like Urban Meyer in this regard, as evidenced by Napier's ability to bring Louisiana-Lafayette era under NCAA sanctions into a rebranded Louisiana era where they were on top of the conference for the first time in a century.

"Yes, BUT:"
NIL and the Transfer Portal have changed EVERYTHING. The skills (like those empirically demonstrated by Billy) that formerly worked for him at Louisiana have introduced a plethora of complications that apparently "queer the deal"...It LOOKED good there along the way, but down the stretch when it came time to "close the deal", greed that was always there turned out to be heightened and encouraged by the new realities.
"Honor", "loyalty", "character" and all the rest of the things that mean so much to old school "team-builder" Coaches like Billy, who make these things the fundamental touchstones of their whole approach, mean practically NOTHING to these kids. From our very first shock at how much things have changed in our nightmarish experience with NIL (where even lip-service to such values are no longer pretended), and this regime's FIRST "Elite QB recruit" experience before the 2023 season, we got a rude awakening as to how much "SHOW ME THE MONEY!!!" has come to rule the process.
In the long run I think it is well on its way to KILLING college football--but regardless, as things stand it is HERE, with so far little sign that it will change for the better anytime soon. We are currently left with simply having to operate in the system at hand.
So. Let's see what hand we are dealt by the time the cards are on the table...WHO exactly will be on hand to PLAY that "hand" (as I overwork this already tired metafore) helping Billy at OC when we take on that threatening 2024 schedule.

 

[Escambia94]

"Yes, BUT:"
NIL and the Transfer Portal have changed EVERYTHING. The skills (like those empirically demonstrated by Billy) that formerly worked for him at Louisiana have introduced a plethora of complications that apparently "queer the deal"...It LOOKED good there along the way, but down the stretch when it came time to "close the deal", greed that was always there turned out to be heightened and encouraged by the new realities.
"Honor", "loyalty", "character" and all the rest of the things that mean so much to old school "team-builder" Coaches like Billy, who make these things the fundamental touchstones of their whole approach, mean practically NOTHING to these kids. From our very first shock at how much things have changed in our nightmarish experience with NIL (where even lip-service to such values are no longer pretended), and this regime's FIRST "Elite QB recruit" experience before the 2023 season, we got a rude awakening as to how much "SHOW ME THE MONEY!!!" has come to rule the process.
In the long run I think it is well on its way to KILLING college football--but regardless, as things stand it is HERE, with so far little sign that it will change for the better anytime soon. We are currently left with simply having to operate in the system at hand.
So. Let's see what hand we are dealt by the time the cards are on the table...WHO exactly will be on hand to PLAY that "hand" (as I overwork this already tired metafore) helping Billy at OC when we take on that threatening 2024 schedule.

You have it backwards. Napier is the ONLY coach on the market in November 2021 who knew how to build programs using Transfer Portal 1.0, coordination with the athletic department, relationships with boosters, and relationships with big donors. He learned NIL from the masters of NIL before it was legal--Nick Saban and to a lesser degree, Kirby Smart. It is up to the Florida athletic department, boosters, and donors to start shoveling mounds of money at the football program and only the football program in addition to the money they are shoveling at the other 18 athletic programs at UF.

If anything, the mess we are in with Gator football highlights the mistake Stricklin made in keeping Mullen after the shoe tossing incident. That was strike three. First Mullen gets slapped with an NCAA no-show clause for recruiting violations. That started his decline because he could not recruit well and he just let Brian Johnson, his best recruiter, go to the NFL. Strike two was keeping Todd Grantham and John Hevesy--we could see the defense and offensive line failing weeks before the shoe toss. Strike three was the shoe toss not because of the shoe itself but due to the problems highlighted by the loss of control over the team. In late 2020 Mullen had lost control over his coaches and his players, and lost the authority to recruit at the same time losing his primary recruiter. All this while NIL 1.0 was starting up at UF with Gator Collective and Gator Guard--both of which were unmitigated disasters thanks to Darren Heitner. Louisiana had an NIL program in place about a year before Florida!

We are "boomers", so we can complain all we want about loyalty before money but that is not the world that we live in now...which is why old people like us are probably going to tune out college football.

 

[DRU2012]

You have it backwards. Napier is the ONLY coach on the market in November 2021 who knew how to build programs using Transfer Portal 1.0, coordination with the athletic department, relationships with boosters, and relationships with big donors. He learned NIL from the masters of NIL before it was legal--Nick Saban and to a lesser degree, Kirby Smart. It is up to the Florida athletic department, boosters, and donors to start shoveling mounds of money at the football program and only the football program in addition to the money they are shoveling at the other 18 athletic programs at UF.

If anything, the mess we are in with Gator football highlights the mistake Stricklin made in keeping Mullen after the shoe tossing incident. That was strike three. First Mullen gets slapped with an NCAA no-show clause for recruiting violations. That started his decline because he could not recruit well and he just let Brian Johnson, his best recruiter, go to the NFL. Strike two was keeping Todd Grantham and John Hevesy--we could see the defense and offensive line failing weeks before the shoe toss. Strike three was the shoe toss not because of the shoe itself but due to the problems highlighted by the loss of control over the team. In late 2020 Mullen had lost control over his coaches and his players, and lost the authority to recruit at the same time losing his primary recruiter. All this while NIL 1.0 was starting up at UF with Gator Collective and Gator Guard--both of which were unmitigated disasters thanks to Darren Heitner. Louisiana had an NIL program in place about a year before Florida!

We are "boomers", so we can complain all we want about loyalty before money but that is not the world that we live in now...which is why old people like us are probably going to tune out college football.

I agree ENTIRELY with EVERYTHING you say.
But as you (and I) ALSO say, this is the world we live in now, so what can we DO?
More to the point, what will BILLY do?
("W-W-B-D-?"--Would that be a good Gator wristband?)
My HOPE of course is that somehow there WILL be some changes, some "pullback" in reaction to the growing tide of "unintentional consequences"--but for the moment we cannot COUNT on that...which leaves the question as to what our Coach can and will do NOW to mitigate the challenges facing him (and US).
Yes, we "boomers" are more and more likely to continue "tuning out" this iteration of "CFB"--but we don't really WANT to, which leaves a large opening for SOMEONE in position to do so to seize what's left of whatever power they may or may not still have to find support in some aggressive reforms.
Unless or until the system itself somehow changes, that leaves only the efforts of a talented, ambitious, inspiring and aggressively creative COACH: Someone to somehow "spin hay into gold".
Is Billy that guy? Well, if he plans to be here after 2025, he BETTER be, at least to some extent.
Which is the seeming starting-point to another rant entirely--but instead I think it best to stop here for now. A more complete view of the complete team, and who we'll have at OC planning for and running things on gamedays, should go a long way in helping us guage how much our Coach has learned AND how well those lessons will likely be applied in 2024.

 

[Escambia94]

I agree ENTIRELY with EVERYTHING you say.
But as you (and I) ALSO say, this is the world we live in now, so what can we DO?
More to the point, what will BILLY do?
("W-W-B-D-?"--Would that be a good Gator wristband?)
My HOPE of course is that somehow there WILL be some changes, some "pullback" in reaction to the growing tide of "unintentional consequences"--but for the moment we cannot COUNT on that...which leaves the question as to what our Coach can and will do NOW to mitigate the challenges facing him (and US).
Yes, we "boomers" are more and more likely to continue "tuning out" this iteration of "CFB"--but we don't really WANT to, which leaves a large opening for SOMEONE in position to do so to seize what's left of whatever power they may or may not still have to find support in some aggressive reforms.
Unless or until the system itself somehow changes, that leaves only the efforts of a talented, ambitious, inspiring and aggressively creative COACH: Someone to somehow "spin hay into gold".
Is Billy that guy? Well, if he plans to be here after 2025, he BETTER be, at least to some extent.
Which is the seeming starting-point to another rant entirely--but instead I think it best to stop here for now. A more complete view of the complete team, and who we'll have at OC planning for and running things on gamedays, should go a long way in helping us guage how much our Coach has learned AND how well those lessons will likely be applied in 2024.

This is not just about Billy. We can repeat the cycle of hiring and firing for the next century and get nowhere. There are 5 components:
- Head Coach. The coach gets all the blame but has the least control.
- Athletic Director. The AD has a great deal of control. He is the chief fundraiser for all the 19 athletic programs.
- UF Athletic Association. UAA is stuck in 2008. They think the Gator logo sells itself. They are scared that pushing the envelope with NIL will get them an NCAA death penalty.
- Big donors. Instead of buying buildings with their names on them they could be buying football players just like Miami, Texas, and Auburn. Florida has more money than anyone in the SEC but Texas and Texas A&M.
- NIL. Florida has one of the largest fan bases but lags 10-15 other teams in NIL. All we do is complain and moan, thinking that fitting the head coach or the AD will fix our problems. It is ridiculous.

 

[DRU2012]

This is not just about Billy. We can repeat the cycle of hiring and firing for the next century and get nowhere. There are 5 components:
- Head Coach. The coach gets all the blame but has the least control.
- Athletic Director. The AD has a great deal of control. He is the chief fundraiser for all the 19 athletic programs.
- UF Athletic Association. UAA is stuck in 2008. They think the Gator logo sells itself. They are scared that pushing the envelope with NIL will get them an NCAA death penalty.
- Big donors. Instead of buying buildings with their names on them they could be buying football players just like Miami, Texas, and Auburn. Florida has more money than anyone in the SEC but Texas and Texas A&M.
- NIL. Florida has one of the largest fan bases but lags 10-15 other teams in NIL. All we do is complain and moan, thinking that fitting the head coach or the AD will fix our problems. It is ridiculous.

I don't know HOW to respond to the above.
I mean, if everything you say here is accurate and valid (and I frankly have NO REASON to believe that it is not), then we are indeed screwed...Billy is left virtually abandoned, spinning his wheels while the folks who are REALLY "in charge" and could make the difference have already shirked their responsibilities--and unless they can somehow be motivated to face facts and reverse direction, nothing will change:
Billy will fail--and it will be a LOOOONG time, if ever, before the Florida Football Program returns to the level so many worked so hard and long to achieve in the first place.
I HATE it--hate the very thought that our fate is not only already sealed, but all because of the simple failure of the wrong small (but admittedly ambitiously successful in their scheming advancement) people somehow landing in their particular positions at just the moment when their mediocrity could hurt us the MOST!
So here we are. Is there no way out or BACK?
I am asking. I really have no answer, at this point.
You have well-defined the problems; is there no realistic plan that circumvents enough of these towering impasses to at least promise some crack of "light at the end of the tunnel"?
Are Billy's hands then completely tied?
It has come down to this.

 

[Escambia94]

I would not say that Billy Napier is abandoned. I am just saying that his management sucks. It happens. I have worked for bad managers before--in the military and in the civilian world. The University of Florida athletic department is full of managers who use outdated thinking. In this new era of college football, the money bag folks are scared to get Florida in NCAA trouble so they are not as aggressive in NIL--except that one time they got aggressive with Jaden Rashada and screwed things up. If the Rashada bag drop had worked, Florida would be on top of the NIL pay-for-play scheme.

Are Billy's hands tied? Yes. What we saw this signing day is that the skills necessary to recruit do matter, but money bags matter more. If the athletic department and boosters/donors were smart, they would get in a room today and plan on dropping the biggest bags of cash on the top transfer portal athletes. I will list those athletes in the other thread.

 

[DRU2012]

I would not say that Billy Napier is abandoned. I am just saying that his management sucks. It happens. I have worked for bad managers before--in the military and in the civilian world. The University of Florida athletic department is full of managers who use outdated thinking. In this new era of college football, the money bag folks are scared to get Florida in NCAA trouble so they are not as aggressive in NIL--except that one time they got aggressive with Jaden Rashada and screwed things up. If the Rashada bag drop had worked, Florida would be on top of the NIL pay-for-play scheme.

Are Billy's hands tied? Yes. What we saw this signing day is that the skills necessary to recruit do matter, but money bags matter more. If the athletic department and boosters/donors were smart, they would get in a room today and plan on dropping the biggest bags of cash on the top transfer portal athletes. I will list those athletes in the other thread.

And in a time of vast change, what happens to "companies" that are poorly managed by inflexible individuals who fail to adapt to the new realities?
Those firms FAIL.
In the CFB world, that means YEARS, maybe even DECADES dismantling, rebuilding. and climbing slowly back. We have more or less been assuming, COUNTING on the idea that we had long since already recognized and begun that very process. If we have it that wrong, and the crucial "powers that be" indeed are the wrong people who must THEMSELVES be replaced before we can even properly begin to BEGIN AGAIN, well, we were and are in even worse shape than we knew.
I am admittedly in a state of depression at this thought, which more and more is coming to ring true.

 

[Escambia94]

The difference here is that football is not the business. The University of Florida generates $5.4B across all revenue streams. The University of Florida football team generates $85M of the total $190M across all 19 sports. UF could choose to focus on academics and coast on, say, $120M revenue across all sports. The University of Florida Athletic Association (UAA) is not going to fail or get fired unless the Athletic Director and University President somehow get together and scrap UAA for a new governing body. I like this option. Create a general manager for UF athletics who manages a trust fund of cash for all sports.

Until this happens, UF is going to ignore the financial problems and continue firing and hiring coaches every 3-4 years.

 

[DRU2012]

The difference here is that football is not the business. The University of Florida generates $5.4B across all revenue streams. The University of Florida football team generates $85M of the total $190M across all 19 sports. UF could choose to focus on academics and coast on, say, $120M revenue across all sports. The University of Florida Athletic Association (UAA) is not going to fail or get fired unless the Athletic Director and University President somehow get together and scrap UAA for a new governing body. I like this option. Create a general manager for UF athletics who manages a trust fund of cash for all sports.

Until this happens, UF is going to ignore the financial problems and continue firing and hiring coaches every 3-4 years.

We gotta do SOMETHING--'Cause I think you're RIGHT, E--: We are more and more seemingly lodged in an endless loop of failure and mediocrity.
As things stand (and presumably continue in the same vein) there is nothing ahead but "more of the same--only worse!".
What a WASTE.
So little to look forward to right now.
I want so badly for it to get BACK to "being ABOUT football", and FOOTBALL ONLY, once more. I'm sure our Coach wishes that too.
I am on the very EDGE of just letting go of the whole damn thing.
How did it all get so far out of WHACK??!

 

[DRU2012]

For Billy Napier (and for Florida fans in general, I'm afraid), it doesn't really matter.
Maybe for the next guy. Maybe. Then again, DJ probably doesn't finish his career here either.
With the basic dissolution of most of the best of the rest of what was ANTICIPATED to be an "ELITE" recruiting class but no longer IS, well, I must warn you all that Mike Farrel sadly but likely has it right: Billy Napier is entering his last season as Gator Coach.
Never mind the economics. Consider the schedule, along with everything ELSE...Look at the last 5 games of 2024: We will lose them all.
If he is still here at the end of that stretch, he will be GONE the day after that "3rd losing season in a row" ENDS.
I'm not saying that will be a right or good thing, but it is damn near inevitable at this point.
Farrel's predictions are being called "bold" and "controversial"--but I just cannot see any other likely outcome from here.
I'm not FOR it, and I'm not going to argue about it. I'm simply warning you all that it is coming. BEYOND THAT I have no idea how bad things will get or BE for how LONG--Only that we will be in DEEP SHIT, a veritable wilderness of floundering confusion for years to come unless/until there is finally a wholesale change at the very top of the UF Athletic Dept.--and ABOVE EVEN THEM.
Cling to whatever forlorn hopes you choose for now, but that is how I see it--and I am not alone: Not even among stout, long time Gator fans who are closer to the "centers of power" than I am!
Anyone claiming anything else is either fooling themselves (I wish them luck with that) or blowing smoke where the sun don't shine!