Anthony Richardson's Development Progress in 2022

[Escambia94]

Sophomore QB Anthony Richardson currently has a season passer rating of 127.2, which is on par with Shane Matthews' sophomore season and slightly below Doug Johnson's sophomore season. Matthews and Johnson both improved about 15 point in passer rating, which would put Richardson around 143--right at Chris Leak's passer rating in his sophomore and senior years.

Date	Opp	Result	Comp	Att	YD	%	TD	Int	Long	Sack	Rating	QBR	Rush Att	Rush Yd	Rush Avg	Rush TD	Rush Long
Sat 9/3​	vs 7 UTAH​	W29-26​	17​	24​	168​	70.8​	0​	0​	23​	0​	129.60​	96.80​	11​	106​	9.6​	3​	45​
Sat 9/10​	vs 20 UK​	L26-16​	14​	35​	143​	40​	0​	2​	28​	1​	62.90​	2.30​	6​	4​	0.7​	0​	4​
Sat 9/17​	vs USF​	W31-28​	10​	18​	112​	55.6​	0​	2​	33​	1​	85.60​	7.50​	7​	24​	3.4​	0​	16​
Sat 9/24​	@ 11T ENN​	L38-33​	24​	44​	453​	54.5​	2​	1​	44​	1​	151.50​	80.70​	17​	62​	3.6​	2​	11​
Sun 10/2​	vs EWU​	W52-17​	8​	10​	240​	80​	2​	1​	75​	0​	327.60​	100.00​	1​	45​	45​	0​	45​
Sat 10/8​	vs MIZ​	W24-17​	8​	14​	66​	57.1​	1​	1​	20​	1​	106.00​	79.80​	5​	45​	9​	0​	32​
Sat 10/15​	vs LSU​	L45-35​	15​	25​	185​	60​	1​	0​	51​	1​	135.40​	88.70​	9​	109​	12.1​	1​	81​
Sat 10/29​	vs 1 UGA​	L42-20​	18​	37​	271​	48.6​	1​	0​	78​	3​	119.10​	52.70​	11​	19​	1.7​	0​	14​
Sat 11/5​	@TA&M​	W41-24​	17​	28​	201​	60.7​	2​	0​	23​	2​	144.60​	93.70​	7​	78​	11.1​	2​	60​
Sat 11/12​	vs SC​	W38-6​	11​	23​	112​	47.8​	2​	0​	27​	3​	117.40​	90.50​	15​	96​	6.4​	1​	23​

Ideally we want to see a passer efficiency rating of 140 for a pocket passer. If we want to measure dual threat QBs we should look at both QBR and rushing yards. If we throw out USF and Eastern Washington his passer rating is slightly better. His passer rating against Kentucky stands out as the game that broke his confidence.

What really stands out is his performance as a dual threat QB. When he runs for 78 yards or more in a game his QBR is above 80, which is what NFL scouts want to see.

For comparison, here are some comparisons to similar QBs:
Anthony Richardson (Florida)
2020 228.4 (low -200.0; high 656.8)
2021 144.1 (low 74.4; high 745.6)
2022 127.2 (low 62.9; high 327.6)

Cam Newton (Florida, Blinn, Auburn), 1st round 2011 draft (Carolina Panthers)
2007 83.6 (low 41.8; high 127.8)
2008 108.8 (1 game)
2009 approx 180
2010 182.0 (low 107.7; high 246.6)

Patrick Mahomes (Texas Tech), 1st round 2017 draft (Kansas City)
2014 151.2 (low 99.6; high 176.4)
2015 147.2 (low 102.2; high 186.4)
2016 157.0 (low 91.6; high 176.4)

Malik Willis (Auburn, Liberty), 3rd round 2022 draft (Tennessee)
2017 186.9 (low 77.1; high 463.6)
2018 100.2 (low 62.6; high 142.0)
2020 155.8 (low 82.3; high 234.8)
2021 151.1 (low 88.0; high 222.9)

Josh Allen (Wyoming), 1st round (Buffalo Bills)
2015 138.1 (low 129.9; high 142.2)
2016 144.9 (low 78.7; high 250.2)
2017 127.8 (low 51.6; high 176.2)

Jacoby Brissett (Florida, NC State), 3rd round (New England)
2011 86.9 (low 58.2; high 436.0)
2012 134.9 (low 112.1; high 183.5)
2014 136.7 (low 38.6; high 222.2)
2015 130.3 (low 91.2; high 191.6)

Jeff Driskel (Florida, La Tech), 6th round (San Francisco)
2011 71.9 (low -66.7; high 242.8)
2012 132.2 (low 87.3; high 200.1)
2013 135.5 (low 62.9; high 150.7)
2014 103.5 (low 0.0, 37.9; high 297.1)
2015 154.1 (low 117.0; high 321.4)

Will Levis (Penn State, Kentucky)
2019 105.0 (low 61.7; high 139.3)
2020 130.3 (low 104.5; high 251.2)
2021 148.3 (low 96.1; high 230.9)
2022 153.6 (low 67.5; high 217.9)

Spencer Rattler (Oklahoma, South Carolina)
2019 155.5 (low 55.7; high 287.5)
2020 172.6 (low 138.4; high 303.3)
2021 155.5 (low 1171.; high 278.6)
2022 128.4 (low 75.6; high 180.5)

 

[Escambia94]

The latest CBS mock draft has the following QBs projected:
- Bryce Young, Alabama, round 1/ pick 1 to Houston Texas
- CJ Stroud, Ohio State, round 1/ pick 4 to Indianapolis Colts
- Will Levis, Kentucky, round 1/ pick 6 to Carolina Panthers
- Anthony Richardson, Florida, round 1/ pick 24 to Tampa Bay

Note that the article also states Richardson is incredibly inconsistent and could return to Florida. By the way, other Gators projected:
- O'Cyrus Torrence, Florida, round 1/ pick 12 to Seattle Seahawks
- Gervon Dexter, Florida, round 1/ pick 23 to Cincinnati Bengals

 

[DRU2012]

Word I hear is that SOME NFL Coaches "won't touch him with a 10-foot pole" at this point with all his inconsistencies and "as yet unfulfilled potential and/or experience", but there are definitely a few who WILL, who feel exactly the opposite about being able to grab "a like specimen that late in the first round..."
As for his own supposedly "blithe indifference", I read that as a clear "tell"--he is ready to GO, if offered properly inflated dollars to do so.
I wish I0. was, HOPE I AM wrong, that it's all either a bluff or simply the straight TRUTH:
"ANTHONY RICHARDSON will be staying to learn, grow, and WIN with at least one more Season at the University of Florida."
I stand with those who are certain it would be the best for HIM, as well as us.

 

[Escambia94]

I have not heard any scouts say that they would not touch him with a 10-foot pole. Statistically he profiles like Josh Allen with a Cam Newton body. Both of them were 1st round picks.

 

[DRU2012]

I have not heard any scouts say that they would not touch him with a 10-foot pole. Statistically he profiles like Josh Allen with a Cam Newton body. Both of them were 1st round picks.

Let's just say there is apparently a "significant minority" who are NOT pursuing him at this time--who grant his "promising" talent but are advising their respective teams to look elsewhere in their top picks for now...However, it is ALSO true that there are some that definitely will consider grabbing him, ESPECIALLY if they are currently sitting LATE-first round and he falls to them after all--if he enters the draft, he therefore will probably be TAKEN.
But that still leaves a group who are still in "wait'n'see"-mode with respect to their interest in Anthony. This is why there is such disparate opinion on him behind-the-scenes...

 

[Escambia94]

Anthony Richardson has a 90.9 PFF passing grade off play action this season--best among Power 5 QBs. Whether we like it or not, AR is trending upwards as an NFL prospect next year.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592549737965780993

 

[DRU2012]

I have not heard any scouts say that they would not touch him with a 10-foot pole. Statistically he profiles like Josh Allen with a Cam Newton body. Both of them were 1st round picks.

Let's just say there is apparently a "significant minority" who are NOT pursuing him at this time--who grant his "promising" talent but are advising their respective teams to look elsewhere in their top picks for now...However, it is ALSO true that there are some that definitely will consider grabbing him, ESPECIALLY if they are currently sitting LATE-first round and he falls to them after all--if he enters the draft, he therefore will probably be TAKEN.
Personally, I must STOP...Stop projecting my fear and confusion. However, at one point last Saturday I blurted out how I was "getting sick of Anthony Richardson"...Let me say here that this was more a statement of frustration with an observable FACT: I was sick of hearing this hype surrounding a kid who (1) Just wasn't PLAYING all THAT great--certainly neither as a passer OR with general consistency, and (2) CLEARLY NEEDED more work and consistency: He needs another year (at LEAST) at this level, with a Coach like Billy Napier.
He's still a "freakish talent" with tremendous upside, I get that, and maybe, in this weird world of college football with all its new forces and considerations, he gets a substantial offer/temptation from a reaching NFL team--but I also remain among those who think that with the right NIL deal from us (which I believe is already strong, with a Gator Collective etc that is prepared to up it accordingly as necessary), that he can suitably protect and enrich himself in staying here another season AND end up doing even BETTER, improving his draft status and the rewards that accompany a higher draft position in his improvement and success NEXT year.
In other eords, it isn't Anthony himself I am "sick of", but the hype, the game surrounding it all and even his flirting with it.
Especially since I suspect that in the end he WILL just "take the money and run"...
Does that make any sense?

 

[Leakfan12]

Honestly, I hope he stays another season and I think he should. Will he will be a different question and it doesn't help there are now two pro leagues outside of the NFL in the XFL and the USFL.

 

[Escambia94]

I agree that Richardson should stay a year, but NFL scouts make questionable calls. Relative to other SEC QBs, AR is 8th-best. Here are the week-by-week SEC QB Power Rankings through week 12. I created a power ranking score and ranked the SEC QBs against one another.

Name​

Wk 1​

Wk 2​

Wk 3​

Wk 4​

Wk 5​

Wk 6​

Wk 7​

Wk 8​

Wk 9​

Wk 10​

Wk 11​

Wk 12​

SCORE​

Bryce Young​

14​

14​

14​

14​

14​

14​

14​

13​

13​

13​

13​

13​

163​

Herndon Hooker​

10​

10​

11​

11​

13​

13​

13​

14​

14​

14​

14​

14​

151​

Stetson Bennett​

9​

9​

13​

13​

13​

12​

12​

12​

12​

11​

12​

12​

140​

KJ Jefferson​

12​

12​

12​

12​

11​

11​

10​

11​

11​

12​

10​

10​

134​

Will Rogers​

8​

9​

10​

8​

8​

10​

11​

11​

11​

12​

10​

10​

118​

Jayden Daniels​

6​

6​

8​

9​

9​

8​

7​

9​

10​

10​

11​

11​

104​

Will Levis​

11​

8​

9​

10​

10​

9​

9​

7​

9​

7​

6​

6​

101​

Anthony Richardson​

7​

11​

7​

6​

6​

6​

6​

6​

6​

6​

7​

8​

82​

Jaxson Dart​

4​

5​

5​

7​

7​

7​

8​

8​

7​

8​

8​

7​

81​

Spencer Rattler​

13​

7​

6​

5​

5​

5​

5​

5​

5​

3​

3​

3​

65​

Brady Cook​

2​

2​

2​

1​

1​

4​

2​

2​

4​

5​

4​

5​

34​

Robby Ashford​

x​

3​

x​

3​

3​

3​

3​

3​

1​

2​

2​

2​

25​

Haynes King​

5​

4​

3​

x​

x​

2​

4​

4​

2​

x​

x​

x​

24​

TJ Finley​

3​

3​

4​

3​

3​

x​

x​

x​

x​

x​

x​

x​

16​

AJ Swann​

x​

x​

1​

2​

2​

1​

1​

1​

3​

1​

1​

1​

14​

Luke Altmeyer​

x​

x​

5​

7​

x​

x​

x​

x​

x​

x​

x​

x​

12​

Connor Weigman​

x​

x​

x​

x​

x​

x​

x​

x​

​

4​

5​

1​

10​

Max Johnson​

x​

x​

x​

4​

4​

2​

x​

x​

x​

x​

x​

x​

10​

Mike Wright​

1​

1​

1​

x​

x​

x​

x​

x​

x​

x​

x​

x​

3​

 

[Escambia94]

Anthony Richardson's Expected Point Average (EPA) puts him back in the 2023 NFL draft discussion. Note that not all of these QBs will enter the draft. This is just the ranking of one analyst based on EPA.

1. Bo Nix (+160, trending up)
2. CJ Stroud (+120, trending up)
3. Hendon Hooker (+120, leveling off)
4. Anthony Richardson (+50, trending up)
5. Bryce Young (+50, trending down)
6. Tanner McKee (-50, trending down)
7. Cameron Ward (+10, trending down)
8. Sam Hartman (+50, leveling off)
9. Will Levis (0, trending down)

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1593306556254371842

 

[Escambia94]

The NFL draft board looks like this for 2023:

Player	PFF Grade	QBR
Bryce Young	90.7 (#16)	80.3 (#11)
Will Levis	68.4 (#189)	58.8 (#63)
CJ Stroud	82.1 (#65)	89.7 (#1)
Tanner McKee	73.7 (#138)	50.5 (#80)
Hendon Hooker	90.0 (#10)	89.6 (#2)
Anthony Richardson	76.5 (#154) {84.5 after week 4, #15}	71.7 (#32) {78.1 after week 4, #16}

In terms of QB PFF rating this puts Richardson at #3 or #4 before his raw physical numbers tip the scale in the NFL Combine. Some analysts predict Will Levis will also put up good NFL Combine numbers and maneuver up the draft board.
1. Hendon Hooker (injured, torn ACL)
2. Bryce Young
3. CJ Stroud
4. Anthony Richardson
5. Tanner McKee
6. Will Levis

 

[DRU2012]

He and Torrance are GOING--and by the way:
There goes our Bowl performance.
Talk about "ending things with a whimper..."
After that "not a COMPLETE game, but our best this season" against SCAR, (sound effect--descending in tone: "mwah, mwah, mwah...!") we just wilted from the scene since to gain a losing record after all.
Sigh...
Unless recruiting really picks up again somehow, AND we gain a whole LOT from the transfer portal, it will take at LEAST another whole such season and cycle after THAT to truly begin to see the kind of dramatic upsurge we are looking for.

 

[Escambia94]

He and Torrance are GOING--and by the way:
There goes our Bowl performance.
Talk about "ending things with a whimper..."
After that "not a COMPLETE game, but our best this season" against SCAR, (sound effect--descending in tone: "mwah, mwah, mwah...!") we just wilted from the scene since to gain a losing record after all.
Sigh...
Unless recruiting really picks up again somehow, AND we gain a whole LOT from the transfer portal, it will take at LEAST another whole such season and cycle after THAT to truly begin to see the kind of dramatic upsurge we are looking for.

Recruiting and late-season victories have nothing to do with one another. The recruits have already taken their official visits, negotiated NIL deals, etc. Since this thread is about Anthony Richardson I will only talk about him. Jaden Rashada is the QB centerpiece for 2023 and DJ Lagway is the QB centerpiece for 2024. Napier has backup plans (see below), but all of them are going to watch Jalen Kitna and/or Jack Miller and get excited about their opportunities. Heck, Rashada might even revel in the idea of beating out Anthony Richardson if he returned. On another note related to Richardson: Marcus Stokes uses the same personal coach as him, Denny Thompson. I think Colin Hurley and Tramell Jones may have visited Denny Thompson as well, so Richardson is becoming a gateway to future QBs from the Sunshine State.

Name	Class	Rating	FNL	Visit	Visit	School	Date	High School
Jaden Rashada Pittsburgh (Pittsburgh, CA) QB 6-4 185 97.7422 + 27.74​	2023​	97.74​	​	​	​	Florida (Miami flip)​	06/26/22​	Pittsburg (Pittsburg, CA)​
Marcus Stokes Nease (Jacksonville, FL) QB 6-2 185 89.0586 +15.26​	2023​	89.06​	​	09/02/22​	​	UF offer rescinded​	​	Nease (Jacksonville, FL)​
DJ Lagway Willis (Willis, TX) QB 6-2 225 0.9901​	2024​	98.50​	07/15/22​	​	10/15/22​	TBD​	​	Willis (Willis, TX)​
Jake Merklinger Calvary Day School (Savannah, GA) QB 6-3 185 95.4610 + 25.30​	2024​	95.46​	​	09/02/22​	​	TBD​	​	Calvary Day School (Savannah, GA)​
Colin Hurley Trinity Christian Academy (Jacksonville, FL) QB 6-0 213​	2025​	98.67​	07/15/22​	09/02/22​	​	TBD​	​	Trinity Christian Academy (Jacksonville, FL)​
Antwann Hill Houston County (Warner Robins, GA) QB 6-4 205​	2025​	97.11​	07/15/22​	09/02/22​	​	TBD​	​	Houston County (Warner Robins, GA)​
Tramell Jones Jr. Mandarin (Jacksonville, FL) QB 6-1 180​	2025​	80.00​	07/15/22​	09/02/22​	​	TBD​	​	Mandarin (Jacksonville, FL)​

 

[DRU2012]

I could not see another, better thread in which to respond and say the things I said above...and I notice you didn't in fact present any refutation of my basic, central points: I believe AR is likely leaving, and that pretty well deflates us both as a "post-season attraction" AND our chances of acquitting ourselves well, in any event. After the Vandy performance and all the accumulating negatives associated with our pending Black Friday appearance in Tallahassee, that will likely put a less-than-stellar capper on the 2022 season.
And, place for this or not, all I want to say about recruiting at this juncture is, no matter how much me and everyone else are hoping for more good news from out there, it is now pretty damn clear from what we've lately seen and learned that, as I say, it will take more than an even stronger finish in our 2023 class, then probably an even better one in 2024 (and BEYOND) to get us into full-on contention by the 2025 season.
I apologize if this inescapable "dose of reality", uncomfortable as it is, might somehow "fit better elsewhere"; I think it is right and necessary that we face the writing on the wall, and I just didn't know when or where there was a "perfectly fitting place" to finally, simply put it out there.
I'm no more happy about it than any of y'all.
If it were a matter of "BLAME", I am certainly not placing it at the feet of the current Coach and his staff--Indeed, I still believe they are the key to our eventual climb and redemption:
If anything, by airing this now, putting it out there for all to see, it is my hope and intention to in this way helping to clear time and ROOM for them to gain a realistic chance for the "near-total rebuild" that now appears to lay ahead.
Impatient, "fair weather" Gator fans have a habit and history of placing early, knee-jerk pressure too early and in the wrong places, after all--and I see little way this can be accomplished satisfactorily as a "rush job".
If I am totally wrong here, I welcome your comments and analysis. I sure as HELL want to be wrong--wish I could see us simply storming back into contention a year from now, but I DON'T.

 

[Escambia94]

@DRU2012 I will try to sort this out point-by-point with respect to Anthony Richardson's development, which is the focus of this thread.

- Billy Napier succeeded in developing Anthony Richardson into a quarterback that the NFL scouts are willing to take in the 2023 NFL draft. It took him a few weeks. Take away the Eastern Washington, Kentucky, and South Florida games, and he has improved since week 6.

- Richardson's season passer rating is 131.6, which would be 64th out of 147 Gator QB seasons. If we assume AR is going to buck the trend of staying a second season as starter and treat his one season as two seasons, then his "first season" passer rating of 142.7 and his "second season" passer rating of 139.74 is comparable to freshman and sophomore seasons for the following Gator QBs: Shane Matthews, Chris Leak, Doug Johnson. Extrapolating the moving average curve shown below, he is projected to have a "third season" passer rating around 150-160, which puts him among Danny Wuerrfel and Rex Grossman.

- Just looking at this season, AR's progression trends along with early college seasons for current NFL QBs Josh Allen (round 1) and Malik Willis (round 3). In terms of raw numbers he is more NFL-ready than former Gators and current NFL QBs Jeff Driskel (round 6) and Jacoby Brissett (round 3) and are better than Feleipe Franks (undrafted).

- The only thing different about Richardson is that he is the first QB to have all of his starts in this new era of NIL, which means we look at him differently. If we look at him as we did any other Gator QB and ignored the NFL talk, we would be saying that he has improved in his first season as a starter and is now performing better than any QB since 2010 not named Kyle Trask (or Feleipe Franks, arguably).

- SUMMARY: Gator fans are being blinded by emotion. Anthony Richardson is not Tim Tebow nor is he Kyle Trask. He is a raw talent as Cam Newton was, and it took him getting expelled from UF and spending a year at a small-town JUCO to blossom into a Heisman QB. Richardson could return to UF and develop into a more consistent QB, but at the same time, Napier did his job and developed him into a QB that NFL scouts would be willing to take.

 

[DRU2012]

Cannot argue with ANY of the above, as far as it goes, pretty clearly.
The key phrase, however, is "we look at him differently", which relates directly to MY key point here all along...
It is pretty clear from the very "new realities" you outline, AR's own (albeit somewhat veiled) signals of his likely intentions (whether we like it or not), and fan's take online and at large that there is a tremendous disconnect between what is "realistically likely" and what many Gators (to some extent myself included) see and judge as "best for him AND us".
I just hoped to splash a little cold water on our collective faces:
"GET ready for all that is coming: AR's departure (despite how attractive its once-upon-a-time alternative reality where he would have stayed, gone after a Heisman while potentially leading us into contention NOW--plus incidentally enhancing our growing status as a place highly-rated prep QBs want to come to--all while giving our prospective 2023 and 2024 QB-recruits the time and space to grow in our system, eventually to more smoothly "pick up the baton" after THAT), and the resulting longer, harder "road back" directly as a result.
I swear--that is ALL I was aiming for in my warnings.