Gator Bites - FLA vs FSU

[Dale J. Rodriguez]

Gator Bites - FLA vs FSU

 

[Escambia94]

It's time. Florida can weasel its way into the national title hunt with a victory over FSU and a loss by Notre Dame. Florida has the #4 defense (#1 against the pass, #4 against the run), but the #104 offense (#79 scoring, #114 passing, #40 rushing). It also boasts the #9 team in turnover margin. FSU brings in the #1 defense (#3 against the pass, #1 against the run) and the #14 offense (#7 scoring, #32 passing, #24 rushing) with the #69 team in turnover margin.

More importantly, the Gators can validate the success of its 2012 campaign by stomping FSU and showing that its rebuilding project is ahead of schedule.

Here is a quick rehash from last year. The Gators out-gained the Noles 184 yards to 95, which is an abysmal turnout for both teams. The Gators need some running in order to eat up the clock, and prevent the Noles from taking advantage of turnovers. The Gators also need to factor in the ACC officiating crew, which is notoriously biased against SEC teams.

​

    FSU    FLA
1st Downs    7    11
Total Yards    95    184
Passing    65    130
Rushing    30    54
Penalties    9-85    4-25
3rd Down Conversions    2-15    2-15
4th Down Conversions    1-2    1-2
Turnovers    1    4
Possession    31:37    28:23

I think this year's FSU game will look a lot like this year's UGA game. Last year, the UGA and FSU games played out similarly. Both of those teams tend to play against Florida similarly. The Gators need to keep that in mind. Both of those teams practice head games such as taunting the Gators on the field, in the tunnel, before the game, and at the game. The Gators tend to let those head games get to them. I will completely outraged if Muschamp lets the Noles get the upper hand in yet another rivalry. Do not let this game look like our crap-tastic dung pile from the Georgia game, and the Gators might accidentally win this game.

FLA    UGA
1st Downs    15    14
Total Yards    266    273
Passing    191    150
Rushing    75    123
Penalties    10-95    14-132
3rd Down Conversions    7-16    1-10
4th Down Conversions    0-1    0-0
Turnovers    6    3
Possession    33:41    26:19

​

 

[FrozenGator]

I swear by Odin's raven that if they don't show this game on a major network so I can see it up here, I'm going to unleash hell on someone. Fury of a thousand suns, for point of reference.

Mind you, the Gators seem to play better when I can't watch them live.

 

[Escambia94]

Do you catch ACC games up there? This game has historically been shown on the ACC networks, not the SEC ones.

 

[FrozenGator]

Do you catch ACC games up there? This game has historically been shown on the ACC networks, not the SEC ones.

It's apparently completely random which games I get to see. It's usually the #5 and higher games, but for some reason I've been seeing a lot of South Carolina (more than I care to, honestly). So, who knows!?

 

[NaffGutts]

take any paper you have on either team, shred them, burn them, then shred them again.

CAUSE OUR RIVALRY IS BACK ...

At one point in College Football, Florida vs Florida State was a bitter, dirty, blood bath of a football game, most times with pending BCS implications for winner and loser. This year it's back, and what a great year for both teams to revive the fire thats been all but put out.
I can imagine some families having a "house divided" this year in the Sunshine State, but this year won't be one team pummeling the other, like the past, this year will be more than bragging rights, more than recruiting swag, and more than just another BCS shake up. It's going to be ugly, hard hitting, and some things will be brought to light. I even see some awkward "Turkey Day" moments, blame the wine, over some rival tensions between family members. THINGS WILL BE SAID THIS YEAR lol.
Florida is in a position that only they can take blame for. They will have to watch 'Bama and Georgia play for an all but guaranteed spot in the NCG. ... But there might be a small window of opportunity for them to make things right. It's no question that if you talk to a non-Florida fan, they'll tell you the Gators are overrated, barely won, have a one dimensional offense and a mistake ridden QB. But talk to someone who watches the games, they'll tell you about the defense that shut down Johnny Football, Spencer Ware, Lattimore, Conner Shaw, Aaron Murray, and some of the Nations most powerful Offensive schemes. That is not rumor or opinion, it's pure fact.
Our offense on the other hand, well lets not talk about that, seriously, lets not. Lets just let our Gators focus on DEMOLISHING Free Shoe University lol, and we'll watch, breath held, for Notre Dame to drop a game @ USC, and 'Bama take care of business with Georgia. All three things happening are VERY plausible, meanwhile, we're forced to prod and poke at possibility and every scenario that could play by season end. Oh the misery of football coming to an end, either way, we'll only be left with what could have been until next season.

BEAT FLORIDA STATE!

 

[Escambia94]

I saw this floating around YouTube. Let's get pumped up! Take Florida back!

 

[Leakfan12]

Just hope the refs don't screw the Gators over like what they did in the UGA game.

 

[DRU2012]

I swear by Odin's raven that if they don't show this game on a major network so I can see it up here, I'm going to unleash hell on someone. Fury of a thousand suns, for point of reference.

Mind you, the Gators seem to play better when I can't watch them live.

You SHOULD be able to see it SOMEWHERE up there--or have a legitimate FREAK-OUT case, FG!
(and Btw: Welcome to the "Undersigned Wise-Ass Club")

PS--SEC is CBS, of course, but I'm not sure about where the ACC "Game of the Week" is shown...I know that y'all generally have access to the 4 "main"/over-the-air US networks up there, or at least USED to...Still do? If so, you SHOULD see this one, as "The Championship of Florida" IS now "back" as the UF/FSU game, and considering how it is being hyped, important as it has been in some years...

PPS--Really into those old Marvel "THOR" comix there, FG? (Me too--though more a "Silver Surfer", "Dr. Strange" guy, if pressed...)

 

[DRU2012]

Escambia94
I wouldn't quite go to "weaseled"...After all, we're balanced in this by the 'Noles' own cheapened "achieving" "#1 Defense"-status against MUCH weaker ACC-compettion --not just inferior to our SEC-competition, obviously, but inferior to every other so-called "Major Conference"...as I point out elsewhere, the ACC is now rated in the middle of the "Mid-Major"-pack for general quality/difficulty-of-play (and trending downward of late, year-by-tear). At least we come by our "superb D" and "questionable O" HONESTLY, against (for 7 games, at least) the toughest and most talented teams in America on BOTH sides of the ball. That we've done so little on offense the last few weeks against NON-SEC teams is the question-mark...and though that worries us at LEAST as much as it concerns potential critics, the jury remains out as to what we may still have "in the tank". If it turns out we have anything at ALL, I think we win this thing--and we COULD grind it out even WITHOUT that, as we've shown at various other times this season already.
Personally, I think we'll need SOME generated OFFENSE to get this done: a 14-point minimum is the number that somehow sticks in my head...I believe we'll produce 10-t0-17 pts. from defense and special teams, which puts us in the 20-to-31 Total pts. range: Low end, with here only, say, 10 pts on offense and 10 on "D-and-s.teams", and we lose something like 24- or 27-20...GET those "14 pts." on offense, and even the LOW end of my "other pts." puts us IN it, and a GOOD game all around gets us up to 27 or 31 points and we WIN this game, I'm telling you...
Yep, the more I consider it, the more convinced I am that 14 points on offense is our minimum "in it" point: that is, the MINIMUM scoring our offense MUST do in order to give us an even-or-better chance of winning this game. Of course, any MORE than that tips the scales further and further in our favor--and the whole estimate DEPENDS on a certain continued efficiency on defense and special teams (but everything we've seen from these Gators this season says we can expect THAT).
Broken down in this way, you can see both the difficulty and the HOPE we have coming into this one.

 

[Escambia94]

We have not seen much offense so far. Don't expect Will Muschamp to sprinkle fairy dust on the offense and all of a sudden they run for 200 yards against 6-8 man fronts or throw for 300 yards on the fast FSU secondary.

 

[Escambia94]

One thing that gives us hope is that Florida has struggled on offense, but it has done so against better teams than FSU. Here is the Sagarin predictor for each of the opponents that Florida and FSU have played against so far, with the final score in brackets at the end. Using the predictor, Florida should win by about 6 points. I do not guarantee that the predictor is something to hang your hat on, but it does lend to some confidence before the game assuming the Gators are not a fraud or that the data are too heavily based on past performance. In this case, the data are only based on performance in this season, which makes it statistically relevant.

SUMMARY: Florida has survived against 3 teams better than FSU. Even Louisiana is a stronger foe for Florida (27-20) than Virginia Tech was for FSU (28-22)! There is hope!

Note: FSU thinks that Maryland was a suitable tune-up against Florida due to similar offenses. They may be right, but they are forgetting how clearly overmatched Florida's offense prevailed over much better defenses than anyone on FSU's schedule.

4 Florida A = 92.30 10 1 75.96( 19) 1 1 | 3 1 | 94.62 2 | 90.12 7
6 Texas A&M A = 90.50 9 2 75.71( 25) 1 1 | 2 2 | 88.47 13 | 92.58 3 [20-17]
8 Georgia A = 89.96 10 1 71.35( 46) 1 0 | 1 1 | 91.55 6 | 88.25 10 [9-17]
 
11 LSU A = 88.91 9 2 75.83( 22) 1 2 | 4 2 | 90.87 8 | 86.93 13 [14-6]
12 South Carolina A = 88.09 9 2 72.76( 39) 1 1 | 1 2 | 89.87 9 | 86.22 15 [44-11]
19 Florida State A = 84.18 10 1 64.41( 93) 0 0 | 1 0 | 81.37 23 | 87.34 12
 
22 Clemson A = 82.30 10 1 65.73( 79) 0 0 | 0 1 | 81.15 24 | 83.13 19 [49-37]
 
33 Vanderbilt A = 78.78 7 4 73.71( 32) 0 2 | 0 3 | 80.16 27 | 77.16 41 [31-17]
 
44 Missouri A = 75.72 5 6 77.91( 9) 0 3 | 1 4 | 76.02 43 | 75.04 47 [14-7]
 
54 Miami-Florida A = 73.23 6 5 71.44( 45) 0 2 | 0 3 | 72.28 53 | 73.83 51 [33-20]
58 Tennessee A = 72.31 4 7 76.44( 17) 0 3 | 0 5 | 72.20 54 | 72.03 60 [37-20]
 
63 Louisiana-Lafayette A = 70.97 6 4 66.08( 76) 0 1 | 0 2 | 69.75 66 | 71.85 61 [27-20]
65 Virginia Tech A = 70.37 5 6 70.26( 51) 0 0 | 0 2 | 67.96 74 | 72.61 58 [28-22]
 
71 NC State A = 68.86 6 5 67.14( 64) 0 0 | 1 1 | 66.82 78 | 70.65 63 [16-17]
76 Duke A = 67.51 6 5 68.49( 59) 0 1 | 0 3 | 69.10 71 | 65.62 82 [48-7]
79 Bowling Green A = 66.87 7 4 59.55( 129) 0 1 | 0 1 | 68.09 73 | 65.31 84 [27-14]
 
82 South Florida A = 65.96 3 7 70.55( 50) 0 0 | 0 1 | 65.61 85 | 65.92 80 [30-17]
89 Kentucky A = 64.48 2 9 76.47( 16) 0 2 | 0 4 | 67.41 76 | 61.34 102 [38-0]
 
106 Maryland A = 61.28 4 7 66.83( 68) 0 0 | 0 2 | 61.73 103 | 60.45 108 [41-14]
110 Wake Forest A = 60.52 5 6 68.03( 60) 0 1 | 0 3 | 63.68 93 | 57.05 131 [52-0]
 
115 Boston College A = 59.64 2 9 70.85( 48) 0 1 | 0 3 | 56.54 137 | 62.39 97 [51-7]
 
130 Jacksonville State AA = 57.56 6 5 58.32( 136) 0 1 | 0 1 | 61.65 106 | 53.07 150 [23-0]
 
136 Murray State AA = 56.88 5 6 57.57( 138) 0 0 | 0 1 | 59.86 119 | 53.48 148 [69-3]
 
243 Savannah State AA = 22.48 1 10 45.71( 187) 0 0 | 0 2 | 22.72 243 | 21.84 240 [55-0]

 

[DRU2012]

While I'm always glad to HAVE the numbers, E-, I have to admit: I can only "ALMOST" grasp what they seem to be telling me--in this case, an objective, more cut-and-dry "proof" of what I suppose I have been trying to bring into focus and articulate here all along...
(1) That we have been fighting through health and depth issues, those in turn bringing continuity and consistency issues, while for the most part playing against competition MUCH tougher than FSU's and WINNING, and
(2) Even while our OFFENSE hasn't been the squad that has brought those wins, or even, at times, seemed to be much more than "barely not LOSE them" for us, as often as not they HAVE looked SO close to really GETTING IT DONE--that's what has been so frustrating and distracting at times.
Whether dropping or being penalized on EVERY long TD-pass, or having everything go right except the O-line turning sieve again and collapsing into JD when the right play is called and the WRs are breaking into the clear, and our power running game compromised by these passing-game breakdowns etc. etc. etc., well no wonder teams are by now "packing-the-box" and DARING us to pass. We could really BURN them with the very plays that have ALMOST worked before--Hell, we could burn 'em with some well-timed simple slants and crossing patterns, at this point, it we just risk GOING FOR IT sometimes.
As I've said, I don't believe we can win this game without a COUPLE of touchdowns from the offense to start with, and we'd have a better shot of at LEAST that kind of scoring with a more balanced attack. I just hope this coaching staff doesn't have to wait until they are DOWN a couple of quick scores before they get the nerve to do what every bone in my body tells me is the way to go from the START in this game.
There. I SAID it. I have little doubt this will be one HELL of a Gator team in seasons ahead--starting next year, in fact. We are on our way: We've ALREADY shown how far "ahead-of-schedule" we are here, but HELL WITH THAT! We have in our hands the chance to get something done HERE AND NOW, to do something special with what's left of THIS season. How about grabbing a lead and THEN "grinding it out"?
Let's just keep ON "overachieving"!!!

 

[Escambia94]

It sounds easy to throw a slant or cross, but our receivers do not seem to be big enough or strong enough to fight off the cornerbacks or linebackers covering those routes. They are getting chucked at the line so easily that by the time they recover beyond 5 yards from the LOS, the opposing defensive ends are already in the Gator backfield. This is why we see so many jailbreak and bubble screens--it is one of the few plays that works well with defenders living in the Gator backfield.

 

[Escambia94]

In summary: the Gator offense is about as complicated as a pee-wee football league. The Gators are not going to grow a big boy offense overnight, so they had better execute what they have--run the A-gap, shoot the B-gap, pull the C-gap, flare out to the running back, bubble screen the aggressive defense, use the Wildcat to hit the edges, and live or die by the zone read.

 

[DRU2012]

In summary: the Gator offense is about as complicated as a pee-wee football league. The Gators are not going to grow a big boy offense overnight, so they had better execute what they have--run the A-gap, shoot the B-gap, pull the C-gap, flare out to the running back, bubble screen the aggressive defense, use the Wildcat to hit the edges, and live or die by the zone read.

Here's the one argument I have against all you've said, E-:
We have seen the plays I'm talking about WORK--including most importantly the LONGER ones--this year...As I say, we have completed a NUMBER of long TD-passes that were called back, and seen a few other big gainers delivered PERFECTLY that were dropped, bounced off the palms or through the out-stretched arms of even our most sure-handed TEs. Then here have been those that were almost as catchable but the receivers didn't make even the small effort necessary to "go up" or "lay out" to get passes otherwise well-delivered-from-JD. Add all of that to almost every receiver's failure to move around, come back to the QB and/or otherwise get-open once he has begun scrambling, buying time and still searching for them downfield. These are all things that they have always been taught and encouraged to do at their positions: a simply redoubled effort to DO THEIR JOBS would seemingly provide a whole other dimension to our offense.
I am not talking about "snapping our fingers and expecting some sudden wholesale change in our offense", but merely asking whichever players are given an opportunity out there to actually DO what they are expected to do as a player at that position--what they have in fact already shown they know how to do and have, on various occasions, actually gotten done before--or at the very least come close. With one game left whose outcome will make all the difference either way, is it not time to TRY to get done some not-impossible tasks that would seem to be needed in order for us to come out on top after all?

 

[awebbf5]

Hopefully we can come out and get some turnovers and a quick lead like we did against sc.

 

[Escambia94]

Our final hurdle to overcome on the field is the ACC officiating crew. Without a clean offense, those refs are going to pick apart the Gators. Look for the refs to let F$U hit our players while ours get flags for everything.

Let's look at the bright side to our woeful offense. The Noles will not shut down our passing attack. I know this, because we have none! Wait, that scares me, because the Noles are good on run defense as well. At least our special teams is good...except that FSU has one of the most explosive kick returners around, and our kicker seems to be having some lingering pain that is affecting his kicking.

 

[Escambia94]

At work, a whole bunch of us plastered these all over the commander's office and throughout the hallway. He is a full bird Colonel, and graduate of F$U. We Gators have him surrounded, so we Swamped him at the Thanksgiving pot luck yesterday.

 

[DRU2012]

Our final hurdle to overcome on the field is the ACC officiating crew. Without a clean offense, those refs are going to pick apart the Gators. Look for the refs to let F$U hit our players while ours get flags for everything.

Let's look at the bright side to our woeful offense. The Noles will not shut down our passing attack. I know this, because we have none! Wait, that scares me, because the Noles are good on run defense as well. At least our special teams is good...except that FSU has one of the most explosive kick returners around, and our kicker seems to be having some lingering pain that is affecting his kicking.

Well, THAT is probably the reality we face, once again--and it'll drive us NUTS, no doubt...
We will just have to "absorb, adapt, OVERCOME", then, if we are to win this one, and that will have to include some aspects of the kinds of things I learned in the unit where that expression was our constant cry: This will take at least SOME calculating, unexpected planning and to some extent a seeming unpredictable offensive strategy, one that will at times suddenly reverse our unchanging "grind it out" approach, in order to grab some quick scores--maybe even jump out to an early lead.
Our whole season has, in a sense, been a kind of "feint", if we choose to use it so here at the end--and this is just one fairly general idea as to how to use what we have in a different way (I'm sure our OC has infinitely more clever ideas on how to accomplish this):
Lull ANY defense, in this case an FSU one that will be set-up to DARE us to pass, into assuming we have little choice...They will be keying on stopping Gilly and containing JD as they collapse in from the edges around him. They will not even WORRY about any mid-to-long-range passing, certainly not early. This is one of those "opportunities"...REVERSE THE ORDER-OF-ATTACK: Set up the run normally then go FIRST with the LONG pass, setting up the mid-range-on-the-run-plus-YAC, setting up finally the power-run game, "bubble- and jailbreak-screens" and JD (if HE is in there) from then on to go through his check-downs--even to break out himself, as they HAVE to begin dropping into coverage once the FIRST couple of quick drives bring points. With the "contain" no longer safe to key on, by the second quarter they really would be in "pick-your-poison" confusion.