All I have been reading of late is how much stronger UFs defense is compared to OUs defense. This is solely based on the disparity in total yards and points allowed. Below is an in depth analysis that should shed some light on just how close (or far apart) the two units are.
Before delving into the defensive statistics and rankings, it should be noted that OU's opponents had 191 possessions this season compared to 151 for UF opponents. With time of possession and takeaways/giveaways being virtually even between the two schools, the key differentiator here appears to be the extraordinarily high number of quick scoring drives that OU had compared to UF.
Total Def - OU is 65th and UF is 9th with OU giving up 80 more yards a game. OU opponents had 3 more possession per game to account for some of this discrepancy. Also, OU's D1 opponents ranked 3,4,6,7,9,12,23,29,33,49,50 & 116 in total offense compared to UF's D1 opponents which ranked 21,37,53,54,55,56,74,88,97,105,115,117 -- a huge disparity in OUs favor. ADVANTAGE - Let's look further.
Rushing Defense - OU is 18th (106 yds/g) & UF is 16th (105 yds/g). OU opponents ranked 7,13,25,34,37,53,76,80,93,95,106, & 114 in rushing offense. UF opponents ranked 23,31,32,43,54,68,77,79,89,97,107, & 109. Quality of opponent slightly favors OU, but not enough to declare an advantage here.
ADVANTAGE - Even
Passing Defense - OU is 99th (253 yds/g) & UF is 19th (174 yds/g). OU opponents were ranked 1,4,8,11,14,18,24,26,43,70,92, & 100 in passing offense. UF opponents were ranked 16,23,33,54,58,67,76,87,96,98,107,112 in passing offense. OU had 9 opponents in the top 50 and 7 in the top 30 compared to 3 and 2 for UF. A huge disparity in OUs favor. With the disparity in quality of opponents and number of possessions, this evens up pretty quickly.
ADVANTAGE - Slight edge to UF
Passing Efficiency Defense - OU is 41st (117.14) and UF is 2nd (94.17). The average PE rating of OU opponents was 145.62 compared to 119.15 of UF opponents. OU held its opponents to 28.48 below the average while UF held their opponents to 24.98 below the opponent average. Again, the level of passing offenses that OU faced was far superior to the UF opponents and the relative impact that we had in holding opponents below their average PE was pretty even. ADVANTAGE - Even
Takeaways - OU is 4th (32) and UF is 3rd (33). ADVANTAGE - Even
Sacks - OU is 3rd (42) and UF is 33rd (32). OU opponents surrendered 273 so we accounted for 15.4% of our opponents sacks. UF opponents surrendered 313 so they accounted for 10.2% of their opponents' sacks.
ADVANTAGE - OU
Tackles For Loss (TFL) - OU is 9th (102) while UF is 85th (67).
ADVANTAGE - OU
3rd Down % - OU is 21st (33%) while UF is 15th (32%).
ADVANTAGE - Even
Red Zone Defense - OU is 46th (80%) while UF is 6th (71%)
ADVANTAGE - UF
First Downs - OU is 62nd (19/g) while UF is 13th (16/g). The primary difference here is the huge disparity in the quality of opposing offenses and the 3 additional possessions per game for OU opponents.
ADVANTAGE - Even
Scoring - OU is ranked 57th (24.5) while UF is ranked 5th (12.8). While UF has a clear lead in this category, it should be noted that 33 of opponent points were scored on kick returns, safeties, and 3 and out FGs. UF only had 3 points of these type scored on them. Also, OU had 4 TDs scored on them in the final seconds of play (of blowouts) against our subs. UF did not give up any last second scores. When you look only at points each defense gave up, the margin narrows to 22-13 in favor of UF. Without the last second scores, the margin narrows further to 20-13, about a one TD difference per game. Again, the caliber of offenses each team played explains much of the disparity.
ADVANTAGE - UF
Summary
1) OU has a clear advantage in the sacks/TFL category.
2) The schools are virtually even in rushing defense, takeaways, 1st downs allowed, 3rd down percentage, and effectiveness against the pass.
3) UF has a clear advantage in passing yards allowed, points allowed, and red zone defense. Do the 3 add'l possessions per game and quality of opponent offenses explain all of the discrepancy here? I think it certainly goes a long way.
Overall, I see these two units as being very close.
