Hope On Ice

[DRU2012]

I won't argue it anymore after this. Don't see the point...Sooner or later, there will be change--until then, the rest is meaningless. I've tried to make clear the stakes, and the consequences of waiting.
For those who cling to some measured, logical rationale and "way of doing things", here is the basic underlying reality:
Our football program, in its present form, is sick and dying. Waiting is slow death, suicide; the last grains of sand are tumbling to the bottom of the hourglass. Continued "step-by-step", we all wait through meaningless game days , layer upon layer and week after week of more and more bad news...then HOPE for this "process" to wend its way through, eventually "Mr. Right" coming to rebuild, and all the time and work that will be required by then. And don't forget: The longer this goes on, the more "right" he will have to be, the further we'll have fallen, the further behind the rest and the more embedded in failure we'll have become.
So now I wait too. Wait for our resurrection--over a body that isn't even dead yet. One that I am personally powerless to save, while those around me, with whom all of us in unison might together at least be heard and have some effect, dither and discuss the correct way to proceed, and when we should actually DO something about it. Do you have any idea how frustrating that is?
I'm sorry: I know some of you do. But I've become the messenger too many would rather kill, or at least argue with, even condemn, rather than focus on those who are responsible--responsible for where we are, how we got here, and at least for now, responsible for any moves we might make toward fixing things.
There ARE obvious "first steps", and as far as I'm concerned, until those are taken we are doing as much for our program and this team as family members standing around weeping and wringing their hands while those pre-scientific "physicians" bled the sick man to death.
Only we should know better. We don't have the excuse of ignorance. Or of powerlessness--not en masse. As our University has the resources few others can match, so too do its legions of followers. It isn't just "big boosters" and "powerful men" that underly that power. The very source of it all is embodied in our sheer numbers, year after year , thousands of grads, moving on, out THERE--but in our hearts, many (if not most) still "here". Gators-for-life. That's where my hope lies. Even if it TAKES seemingly WAY too long to rouse itself, mobilize, get PISSED and raise its voice(s). No matter how long it takes, it's what I'm counting on, the ONLY thing I fear I CAN count on now.
But I'm stealing myself for a long wait. Programs and their supporters can get used to losing, become numb, go into a kind of don't-think-about-it/resignation-mode that has an inertia all its own. That's the biggest danger of all. It'll take plenty long getting back once our "patient" dies, as I outline above, even with the memory of success still real and alive in those on the scene...That fades, and it could be a VERY long time before we are "back". That numbness, a kind of self-protective apathy, is the only thing I can see hanging in for, fighting against, unless and until we are actually ON that "New Road". Then I can return to my customary smirking cynicism, I suppose. Like "integrity" in time of starvation, "a luxury we can't currently afford".
Meanwhile, guess I'm waiting for the Resurrection.

 

[Escambia94]

I agree with you on the first step of firing Muschamp, even if we disagree on how he should be fired.

I agree with you that we need the next coach to be a home run hire, but I do not see available talent on the market. What you are seeing is a balanced market, meaning there are few underemployed coaches to pick from. Urban Meyer was underemployed and ready for a bigger challenge when Florida pulled him from Utah, which is why we got him at $3M (in 2004 base year dollars). Will Muschamp was underemployed, but ill-prepared when Florida pulled him from Texas.

Now that I can look back at four years of history, the root cause of this failed Muschamp experiment is Muschamp's first choice in offensive coordinator. When he was head coach in waiting at Texas, he knew his OC would be Major Applewhite and he would keep consistency by retaining most of the coaches. Mack Brown would have also stepped aside quietly to keep boosters, recruits, and fans calm during the transition. Jeremy Foley broke two programs with one decision. He broke continuity and a good succession plan at Texas, and he did not roll much continuity into Florida by hiring a first time head coach who lacked an offensive coordinator partner. If Muschamp had stolen Applewhite or if he had snagged an offensive minded friend that he could grow with, the experiment would have worked.

That being said, the formula appears to be that defensive minded head coaches must always keep a stable full of trusted, like minded offensive coordinators. The opposite is true for offensive minded head coaches. This lack of offense-defense coach pairing led to the three failed OCs and lack of production on offense. The defense has only lapsed for at most two weeks under Muschamp, so he deserves credit there.

The resurrection will take five years unless Florida rolls in some continuity from the current staff, and that continuity must come from defense with a whole new offensive staff and an OC that works well with the head coach.

 

[Escambia94]

Until we see the new coach, I want to watch Harris and Grier grow on the field, along with all the freshmen and sophomore receivers. The offensive line can play the seniors and juniors. I want Roper to try every play in the book and audition for his next job, because it will not be at Florida. I want Muschamp to shut down every offense Florida plays, because he is auditioning for his next job as someone else's DC or defensive minded coach.

 

[DRU2012]

@Escambia94,
The Harris/Grier thing IS the one interesting part of what's happening, and it does affect our future, so yes, now that you mention it, IF I'm around a TV, and IF things aren't getting TOO out-of-hand, I too will be watching that part of the game-by-game Gator story the rest of the way.
As for the rest, I find your proposition that "Foley broke TWO programs" interesting--though in addition to having to admit (like a lot of things that have happened since the '09 SEC Championship, coaching-wise, Meyer, Muschamp, Weiss, Pease, all the comings and goings, on and on, NOT seeing it at the time, maybe not WANTING to see) if true, it's another case of "20-20 hindsight" on ALL our parts.
I would only stress once more that I am all about what we can DO, not so much bitching anymore about what's already happened. There are things we can learn from it all, as always, but the reality is that there are always NEW mistakes to make--and we can ill afford any BIG ones in the job ahead.
Finally, far as the time frame for that job, that of FIXING what's wrong and returning to prominence, I'd say that five years is a little longer than might be managed with luck, the right person(s) AND a real grasp PRONTO as to the trouble we are in, the need to move NOW. On the other hand, continue the wait-to-see-what-happens, stall-and-hedge-game currently favored by our AD will likely turn that to an optimistic guess. In the event, I don't find that 10-year number some of the program-prognosticators are now warning of at all exaggerated fear-mongering anymore, I'm sad to say. Scares the shit out of me--but watching the team, school and program that we love blindly backing towards oblivion, like watching a child or sibling blindly playing at the edge of a 1000-ft cliff, OUGHT to scare us, right?

 

[Escambia94]

I do not think it will be 10 years. I think it could be 5 if the defensive staff stays and DJ Durkin learned enough from Muschamp, and if we brought in an offensive staff that was good.

 

[DRU2012]

I do not think it will be 10 years. I think it could be 5 if the defensive staff stays and DJ Durkin learned enough from Muschamp, and if we brought in an offensive staff that was good.

It's at the "long end" of the "clouded window" (to mix metaphors)--but as I say, it's now possible, and so far we're still doing the very things that make it that way (or rather, NOT doing the things that will stop our slide and shorten the recovery time), and the larger number more likely than ever. Anyway, our now being reduced to calmly, seriously weighing such alternatives, whether 5 or 10 years to get us back to where we had every reason to believe we were close to being even a coupla months ago, know we SHOULD be with the talent at hand, is as emphatic an indictment of a severe coaching failure as anything in the way of detailed analysis OR emotional frustration could describe. In fact, I hope this will be the last time I even say it for now. Can we all at least agree at this point that however bad it is, whatever we think about who, what when etc should be done in taking whatever steps need to be taken in the days, weeks, months and years ahead, the Muschamp-era IS a pretty thorough failure in terms of our competitive health, present and future, for however long? It helps clear the table for discussion of whatever future we will have, when it will begin and what it will entail.

 

[DRU2012]

(Another thing that is making this whole college football season excrutiating, as backdrop to our fall (both meanings of the word), has been and is the weekly intensifying demonstration of how some combination of "parity" and "coincidental mediocrity", or at the very least inconsistency among ALL conferences and teams, even (or especially?) the SEC, would have been the perfect opening for a team like ours to leap back to prominence. I still think we had enough talent at enough positions (even QB and WR--had we gotten away from Driskel early, at least earlier than THIS) to have pulled that off...Another thing I won't mention again if I can help it. But even as I draw back from my usual close following of the various scores and related stories from around the nation, there seem to be an inescapable few each week that raise my eyebrows and return the same thought unbidden: "Damnit, woulda shoulda COULDA!!!")

 

[miltongator]

(Another thing that is making this whole college football season excrutiating, as backdrop to our fall (both meanings of the word), has been and is the weekly intensifying demonstration of how some combination of "parity" and "coincidental mediocrity", or at the very least inconsistency among ALL conferences and teams, even (or especially?) the SEC, would have been the perfect opening for a team like ours to leap back to prominence. I still think we had enough talent at enough positions (even QB and WR--had we gotten away from Driskel early, at least earlier than THIS) to have pulled that off...Another thing I won't mention again if I can help it. But even as I draw back from my usual close following of the various scores and related stories from around the nation, there seem to be an inescapable few each week that raise my eyebrows and return the same thought unbidden: "Damnit, woulda shoulda COULDA!!!")

All that is true. The door was wide open for us, if we only had some offense (just like the Wizard of Oz). It should have come down to us and UGA for the East (just like the old days). The only consolation for today is that we don't have to bemoan yet another Saturday where the team disintegrated before our eyes. Now our once familiar chant of "wait 'till next year" will become "wait 'till 3 years from now" (if the RIGHT decisions are made ASAP).

 

[DRU2012]

All that is true. The door was wide open for us, if we only had some offense (just like the Wizard of Oz). It should have come down to us and UGA for the East (just like the old days). The only consolation for today is that we don't have to bemoan yet another Saturday where the team disintegrated before our eyes. Now our once familiar chant of "wait 'till next year" will become "wait 'till 3 years from now" (if the RIGHT decisions are made ASAP).

"LIKE" and agree...The above is the "optimistic view" at this point--but doable, and our best-case-scenario now. Would GLADLY accept "3 years" as a relatively bearable length of time my "HOPE" be kept on "ICE" now, all considered.

 

[Escambia94]

Parity hurts everyone, but it hurts schools in Florida, Texas, and California the most because other schools poach talent from those states and those states have multiple schools fighting for in-state talent.

You can see that in the same time frame, UF, USCw, and UTx have all struggled to regain former glory for various reasons. Take away NCAA sanctions from USCw and just look at how all three now have to compete with neighbors that grab big name talent from our backyards--recruits and coaches.

People are living in the past when they assume big name schools like Florida can use and abuse coaches, fire them midseason and expect new coaches to line up to get abused the same way. USCw knew it could fire Kiffin because they knew Sarkisian or Orgeron would come back. Texas had its succession plan shattered by Foley, but they knew they could pluck James Franklin, Gary Andersen, Mike Gundy, or Mark Dantonio. Charlie Strong did not show up on the radar of Orange Bloods until the very end, and the verdict is still out on him.

Just a few years ago, everyone in the media was touting that NCAA football was undergoing an offensive renaissance and the top OCs to be head coaches were Urban Meyer, Chip Kelley, Rich Rodriguez, Dana Holgersen, and Kliff Kingsbury. Fast forward and you can see that the market is saturated with those guys as head coaches. Where is the updated list of OCs and DCs to become great head coaches? It does not exist due to parity and the market now being balanced. It took 5-10 years to get here.

Where does that leave Florida? I think Florida will have to seek a new market by grabbing an NFL OC or retired head coach and climb back up after 3-5 years. There is no free market of hot talent. Muschamp will probably click elsewhere, but if Foley waits out Muschamp he might click in a year or two if Roper is as good as the hype.

Bottom line:
1. If Muschamp and Roper are a good match and we are stuck with them next year (doubt it), then next year could be our year.
2. If we could snag an NFL OC or retired HC, it could be 2-3 years.
3. If there is a dark horse out there amongst the college ranks, it could be 2-5 years.
4. Any other option is a 5 year plan.

 

[Dale J. Rodriguez]

The only Dark Horse we could snag, that would give us a quick turnaround within 2 years, Stoops from Oklahoma. I just am not sure if that is going to really happen.

I will be amazed if Foley pulls that off, and will buy season tickets for every year of his contract.

 

[DRU2012]

"...use and ABUSE..."??? Yeah, poor guys, forced to take enormous bucks, more than they'll ever make otherwise--and then paid off in full EARLY if they fail. Sure glad that doesn't happen to ME...
(Geez, I'm trying to move on, at least get US here at GE to begin our look ahead, but there's some strange will to back-rationalize--using reason to be unreasonable is how it strikes me. OK, lets do NOTHING: Someone can always come up with SOME reason why it can't work--whether it is actually the way things are or how they work, or not.)

 

[DRU2012]

(Oh, and if you need a refresher-course on "reality", how it REALLY goes, recall and examine the history of Nick Saban's career--one which has brought HIM to the pinnacle of the coaching profession. Only one, albeit highly instructive, example at the coaches' (far-)end of the contract/career-game spectrum. At the other end are the programs themselves, where administrators and Athletic Directors hold and exercise more leverage, ignoring any thought or consideration of "class", even common ideas about "contract law" routinely jettisoned in favor of "throwing money at the problem"...the myriad versions of every wrinkle in this just-plain-down-and-dirty business are too numerous to list. Whether it's a coach who lies, cheats and betrays his word AND young charges he recruited on his way through a procession of broken promises and contracts, yet is damn near worshipped where he lands and commentators go on to laud to high heaven, or the venerated old school and program that is repeatedly caught with a whole lot worse than "their hands in the cookie jar" yet are quickly returned to their place "on the pedestal", THAT'S THE WAY IT IS.
Now, can we POSSIBLY move on--to what WE'd like to see happen, and what we're prepared to DO about it?)

 

[Escambia94]

(Oh, and if you need a refresher-course on "reality", how it REALLY goes, recall and examine the history of Nick Saban's career--one which has brought HIM to the pinnacle of the coaching profession. Only one, albeit highly instructive, example at the coaches' (far-)end of the contract/career-game spectrum. At the other end are the programs themselves, where administrators and Athletic Directors hold and exercise more leverage, ignoring any thought or consideration of "class", even common ideas about "contract law" routinely jettisoned in favor of "throwing money at the problem"...the myriad versions of every wrinkle in this just-plain-down-and-dirty business are too numerous to list. Whether it's a coach who lies, cheats and betrays his word AND young charges he recruited on his way through a procession of broken promises and contracts, yet is damn near worshipped where he lands and commentators go on to laud to high heaven, or the venerated old school and program that is repeatedly caught with a whole lot worse than "their hands in the cookie jar" yet are quickly returned to their place "on the pedestal", THAT'S THE WAY IT IS.
Now, can we POSSIBLY move on--to what WE'd like to see happen, and what we're prepared to DO about it?)

Alabama and Saban have very different histories than Florida and Muschamp. I cannot explain it, but Florida cannot get away with lying and cheating. One misstep and Florida is doomed to repeat the 1980s. Alabama was barely set back by its sanctions in the early 2000s because they did not have a strong Auburn to recruit against or compete against on the field. Meanwhile Florida has always fought Georgia, Miami, and FSU for recruits, and any opponent will make sure Florida never gets away with lying or cheating. We would be doing a lot better with Joker Philips as WR coach, but Miami was quick to point out a minor issue that they probably get away with all the time. Do you think if Harris had pulled a Winston that he would get away with it? Not at Florida and not a couple years after Aaron Hernandez and 20 arrests in a decade.

Face it. Florida has different standards to live by due to various issues.

As for the rise of Saban, he was a mediocre coach from the 1970s to the late 1990s. Actually he is a good case to KEEP Muschamp, so I have no idea why you would ever think to bring him up as an example. He could never win more than 7 games in a season until he got to LSU. It was not until he discovered the art of over signing that he started winning, which is something he could pull off at LSU and later Alabama.

 

[DRU2012]

My point is only that there are a wide range of stories, behaviors and complex machinations associated with this whole business of contracts, coaches and programs--and at least as many ways of bending rules, violating so-called ethics and traditions and getting around all of them, by both sides (coaches and program administrators), as there are situations requiring them....The fact that there ARE "different standards" IS a part of my point, however: That getting bogged down in reasons that we can't or won't do this or that because of some sort of "standard of behavior", "image" or "ethical rules", is more a distraction, not a real reason we can't or won't or "SHOULDN'T" do something that we need to do to get where we want to go--and certainly no reason we shouldn't talk about options and possibilities. Aside from just for the sake of supporting a point of view, I don't really understand why we'd even get bogged down in such arguments here now.
Frankly, I don't know how many more ways I can make this overarching point, or reframe the discussion: What do y'all think we ought to do, then, and how to go about getting it DONE? Is "Wait 'til the end of the season" the soul answer that can be offered, period--"...and here are all the 'reasons' why..." ? Are you really saying then that "waiting" is the best choice? And if it isn't, just putting all the "problems that might arise" aside for a moment, what do you think we could do? How bout we worry about "the problems and pitfalls" to be overcome AFTER hearing some "ideal alternatives", if you like? 'Cause so far, there's been a lot of "Don't even THINK about anything but waiting" from certain quarters, and a host of obstructions, red herrings and exaggerated reasons any thought of doing anything else strewn in the path of even beginning such discussion. It's weird, and frustrating, NOT what we DO here, normally--but if EVERYONE here truly wants to drop any consideration of SOLUTIONS, actually beginning to consider, eventually even suggest ways to FIX our broken team and program, then I AM on my own here, and I'll just drop it. Doesn't leave much for us to do here, though--unless moaning together over the sad displays ahead is now to be our sole reason for being here, having this site. Not that THAT doesn't have some cathartic, psychological value--but it's a pretty "one-note" tune, know what I'm saying? Personally I expect and require more--from myself and all of you. Am I wrong, way off-the-mark, to think so?

 

[Escambia94]

All we can do is moan and complain, at least until Muschamp is fired next month.

 

[Escambia94]

One Muschamp press conference down, 4 more to go. This time he wanted us to feel sorry for his family. A small part of me feels sorry for him, but a large part of me is actually angry at his inability to translate off field success to on field success.