Official Game Thread: Week 7, #7 Florida Gators 28, #5 LSU 42 9/12/19

[Escambia94]

Where: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge
When: Saturday, October 12, 2019, 8:00 PM ET
Line: Florida Gators (+13) vs. LSU Tigers (-13), O/U 55.5
TV Broadcast: ESPN

The Florida Gators are nearly two touchdown underdogs coming into Death Valley as they take their #5 passing defense in against the nation's #1 passing offense.

Florida

• Scoring Offense: 32.3 ppg (#53) - advantage LSU
  
• Scoring Defense: 9.5 ppg (#5) - advantage Florida
  
• Passing Offense: 8.8 ypa (#22) - advantage LSU
  
• Rushing Offense: 4.3 ypc (#72) - push
  
• Red Zone TD%: 84.62% (#48) - advantage LSU

LSU

• Scoring Offense: 54.6 ppg (#1) - advantage LSU
  
• Scoring Defense: 19.8 ppg (#29) - advantage Florida
  
• Passing Offense: 11.1 ypa (#5) - advantage LSU
  
• Rushing Offense: 4.21 ypc (#76) - push
  
• Red Zone TD%: 83.87% (#8) - advantage LSU

Florida will need to put up more than 284.5 yards passing and 139.8 yards rushing (their season averages to this point) in order to continue their winning streak. Kyle Trask is 79/97 (81.44%) for 887 yards 7 TD 2 INT 168.0 RAT. More importantly, Florida needs to take care of the ball as they have been turning over the ball at an alarming rate, which they simply cannot do in Death Valley.

LSU's revamped RPO offense is putting up video game numbers, which is a first for the Bengal Tigers. Joe Burrow is 127/162 for 78.4 yards 22 TD 3 INT 216.2 RAT. The LSU defense has been rather shaky, but this could be a side effect of scoring so quickly.

The last five match-ups have been very good games.
10/6/2018 Gainesville, FL 27 19
10/7/2017 Gainesville, FL 16 17
11/19/2016 Baton Rouge, LA 16 10
10/17/2015 Baton Rouge, LA 28 35
10/11/2014 Gainesville, FL 27 30

I hate picking against the Gators, but I will call it 30-28, Gators regardless. I would not be surprised if the game ended up 30-28, LSU. Other predictions on the Internet are calling for 49-26 LSU based on both teams' performances to this point. Worse Florida teams have played these games closer than that, but then again, this is the first time we have seen an LSU team like this. The Gators can afford to lose this game, as long as they learn something that will help them beat UGA.

 

[DRU2012]

View attachment 458

Where: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge
When: Saturday, October 12, 2019, 8:00 PM ET
Line: Florida Gators (+13) vs. LSU Tigers (-13), O/U 55.5
TV Broadcast: ESPN

The Florida Gators are nearly two touchdown underdogs coming into Death Valley as they take their #5 passing defense in against the nation's #1 passing offense.

Florida

• Scoring Offense: 32.3 ppg (#53) - advantage LSU
  
• Scoring Defense: 9.5 ppg (#5) - advantage Florida
  
• Passing Offense: 8.8 ypa (#22) - advantage LSU
  
• Rushing Offense: 4.3 ypc (#72) - push
  
• Red Zone TD%: 84.62% (#48) - advantage LSU

LSU

• Scoring Offense: 54.6 ppg (#1) - advantage LSU
  
• Scoring Defense: 19.8 ppg (#29) - advantage Florida
  
• Passing Offense: 11.1 ypa (#5) - advantage LSU
  
• Rushing Offense: 4.21 ypc (#76) - push
  
• Red Zone TD%: 83.87% (#8) - advantage LSU

Florida will need to put up more than 284.5 yards passing and 139.8 yards rushing (their season averages to this point) in order to continue their winning streak. Kyle Trask is 79/97 (81.44%) for 887 yards 7 TD 2 INT 168.0 RAT. More importantly, Florida needs to take care of the ball as they have been turning over the ball at an alarming rate, which they simply cannot do in Death Valley.

LSU's revamped RPO offense is putting up video game numbers, which is a first for the Bengal Tigers. Joe Burrow is 127/162 for 78.4 yards 22 TD 3 INT 216.2 RAT. The LSU defense has been rather shaky, but this could be a side effect of scoring so quickly.

The last five match-ups have been very good games.
10/6/2018 Gainesville, FL 27 19
10/7/2017 Gainesville, FL 16 17
11/19/2016 Baton Rouge, LA 16 10
10/17/2015 Baton Rouge, LA 28 35
10/11/2014 Gainesville, FL 27 30

I hate picking against the Gators, but I will call it 30-28, Gators regardless. I would not be surprised if the game ended up 30-28, LSU. Other predictions on the Internet are calling for 49-26 LSU based on both teams' performances to this point. Worse Florida teams have played these games closer than that, but then again, this is the first time we have seen an LSU team like this. The Gators can afford to lose this game, as long as they learn something that will help them beat UGA.

Y'er raight, laddie: Gonna HAVE to exceed our (double-meaninged) offensive numbers in order to pull THIS one out a Gator victory.
But it MAY not require quite SO many points: Our fine D is really beginning to hit IT'S stride under Grantham (Boy, just as Strickland "hit it lucky and right in hiring Mullens", so likewise did Mullens get it right in bringing in Grantham...
I think maybe 35 points does it.
(Oh, and one more thing; I noted this elsewhere (on "Next!..." Thread), but ut is worth repeating here, I think: As Tebow noted before Auburn, Trask beimg among other things an efficient "Game Manager" is a positive, all to the good heading into Death Valley...Thus is a young quarteback who will be more apt that Nix was to handle a crazed crowd, I think, for one thing. HE HAS GOT TO HANG ONTO THE BALL BETTER, THOUGH!!!
Last thing I'll say here: We MUST stop the fumbling. We have gotten away with it up til now--but we WON'T here, and that is FOR SURE.

 

[DRU2012]

Do yourselves a favor and AVOID the Experts' Opinion College Football shows this week, if you can. "SEC NOW", for eg, where that idiot McGee and co, the same guys who were RAVING about Auburn and Nix and how they were gonna unmask, DESTROY Florida so easily in the Swamp--and little discussion of UF except alomg lines of dismissal (how many times did I hear "Just don't TRUST Florida OR their record so far.." everywhere I tuned in?), NOW they are DISMISSING Auburn, how the Swamp got to a young QB and how the former guru Malzaln didn't make it easy for his young, unproven quarterback (this wasn't, COULDN'T be the same folks they were talking about LAST week), and again almost ZERO about Florida, certainly no words about anything they did RIGHT to themselves DESERVE this victory... And now its the same ol' crap this week for LSU, only MORE SO...and it isn't just on the ESPN channels and shows--you get virtually the same drivel over on all those You Tube Shows too--all except the one "show" that proudly DENIES it is run by "experts"
...For something of a refreshing change, check out "Average Joes' Show", wherein 3 normal everyday SEC fanatics, one a Kentucky/Georgia guy, one an Alabama fan, and one a Gator, each take a stab at "fairness and openess through admittedly strong team affiliation"...they pick the various matchups and discuss their picks, and most revealing (and surprisingly similar, coming as these opinions do from totally different rooting positions) was their unanimous condemnation of the Auburn performance AND the so-called EXPERTS' having gotten every aspect of their opinions regarding the relative strengths and merits of those two opponents' likely performances and hence final outcome totally wrong--That Florida FORCED that performance out of Auburn... And all three find the 13.5 pts Vegas has LSU favored over UF "LUDICROUS, TO SAY THE LEAST"--a chance for Vegas to bank endless cash from well-hyped suckers...ONLY THE Alabama fan thinks LSU will even win the game at all outright--by a TD or less, and THAT "only because all those Trask turnovers and eventual injury on the last one give me pause", or I'd pick the outright upset..."
The other two guys pick Florida going away; in fact the Gator predicts the final and complete "unmasking of Burrows, Ogeron and their defense for the phonies that they truly are--a "media-experts" ' creation, in truth portraying only those EXPERTS' IGNORANCE AND BANDWAGON-ME-TOOISM!"
I don't know that it'll all come out THAT extreme, but gotta say of course I LOVED hearing it, finally and for a change!
Me, I'm just not sure... Again, y'all know I'm not a "pick 'em and by how many"-sorta guy, but I do have this feeling: If Death Valley doesn't get to Trask (and he's been a cool, calm collected guy thus far) and especially if they get that "slow-throw-itus" corrected and there's little repeat of those resulting fumbles here, I do think we can pull this one OUT...31-24 Gators sounds/feels about right...

 

[Leakfan12]

I would like for Tebow (and Laura Rutledge whose also a UF alum but also on maternity leave) to defend UF. Granted I know they are should to be impartial though I wonder if Tebow and Marcus Spears have a bet on this game.

 

[Leakfan12]

Also will they put Jones in for a few plays?

 

[DRU2012]

I would like for Tebow (and Laura Rutledge whose also a UF alum but also on maternity leave) to defend UF. Granted I know they are should to be impartial though I wonder if Tebow and Marcus Spears have a bet on this game.

Generally speaking, TT DOES do a nice job of holding ONTO his Gator pride but clearly trying to be fair (Finebaum could learn a few things from him about being "out front" with one's prejudices and biases...but of course, the more you watch "F-bomb", the more you realize that he is (more and more of late) rather just MAXXING OUT his "loud-mouthed-controversy brings-listeners-and-hence-SPONSORS"- approach to naked careerism...So the answer is simple enough for Gators everywhere: If/when YOU'VE had enough, STOP: ELIMINATE FINEBAUM from your college footfall listening diet! (I dunno--maybe add more fiber...lettuce in your dinner salad? I find a bowl of golden crisps and milk each morning a painless substitute--and we ARE still undefeated...)
Ok Ok I'll curb the silliness about here...

 

[DRU2012]

Also will they put Jones in for a few plays?

I am certain they will--AT LEAST "a few plays" no matter what, and personally I suspect "more and MORE". THEY gotta start getting him truly "ready", Mullens knows it--that was already a close call last weekend.
Every time we see him I am struck by how far he has come this fast, too.
If this continues apace, he WILL BE our starter by the beginning of the 2020 season NO MATTER WHAT ELSE HAPPENS. It will happen in due course (the best way it COULD go down, btw). We hopefully finish this season with a major Bowl (if not a playoff appearance, a New Years Day one and maybe 11 wins after all--then with Fall 2020 comes SOME version of The Return, with Emory now dialed IN as QB-1.

 

[Escambia94]

I am certain they will--AT LEAST "a few plays" no matter what, and personally I suspect "more and MORE". THEY gotta start getting him truly "ready", Mullens knows it--that was already a close call last weekend.
Every time we see him I am struck by how far he has come this fast, too.
If this continues apace, he WILL BE our starter by the beginning of the 2020 season NO MATTER WHAT ELSE HAPPENS. It will happen in due course (the best way it COULD go down, btw). We hopefully finish this season with a major Bowl (if not a playoff appearance, a New Years Day one and maybe 11 wins after all--then with Fall 2020 comes SOME version of The Return, with Emory now dialed IN as QB-1.

If you asked me last week who I thought would be QB1 next year I would have said Emory Jones. Based on comments made by Dan Mullen I could see a scenario where Kyle Trask returns. Mullen went on record saying he does not believe in anointing a QB1. Any QB with a scholarship had better be ready when his name is called. I would shy away from the terms “QB1” and “starter”.

 

[Escambia94]

In 2003, Ron Zook led the unranked Gators to a victory over #6 LSU in Death Valley. The Tigers were coached by Nick Saban, Jimbo Fisher, and Will Muschamp.

 

[DRU2012]

If you asked me last week who I thought would be QB1 next year I would have said Emory Jones. Based on comments made by Dan Mullen I could see a scenario where Kyle Trask returns. Mullen went on record saying he does not believe in anointing a QB1. Any QB with a scholarship had better be ready when his name is called. I would shy away from the terms “QB1” and “starter”.

OK--I hadn't picked up on all that, but to me its just an "indicator/exclamator" anyway--a way of emphasizing a player's recogition as/ascension TO the starting QB position... And I still believe Jones will start by early 2020 (if not Game 1 itself):
He's got too many of the extra skills AND "intangibles" Mullens is looking for, in fact NEEDS, to really run his wide open, in-your-face attack. Yes, Trask, should he stay and continue to compete, will push him to be better and continue to vie for time AND EVEN the starting role, for just and all the reasons you state--but if Jones himself stays healthy and continues his growth in similar fashion I don't think there is anyway for anyone, neither Franks NOR Trask, to keep EMORY FROM THE FIELD.
Never mind the whole "QB-1" discrepency then--I apologize and concede the point. But:
I will say it now, based on what I am seeing: A healthy Emory Jones is at the heart of a future Gator juggernaut offense--and that appears, to me at least, clearly on target for 2020.

(Personally, I can't WAIT.)

 

[DRU2012]

View attachment 459
In 2003, Ron Zook led the unranked Gators to a victory over #6 LSU in Death Valley. The Tigers were coached by Nick Saban, Jimbo Fisher, and Will Muschamp.

...BUT MEANWHILE, we're being ignored and dismissed even more drastically than LAST week. At this point, it's prob harder on us fans than the players. Being underestimated/underrated heading into a terminally hostile atmosphere only reinforces the chip-on-shoulder, come-together-as-a-TEAM solidarity that can help to produce the very upset overconfident LSU fans and play-it-safe "experts" are so sure WON'T be in the offing this time.
Less than 48 hrs from kickoff now and I won't belabor the point, will instead back away from predictions now and simply state, "I don't know what'll happen but I LIKE our chances heading in from here..."
Eat 'em UP, REPTILES!

 

[Escambia94]

...BUT MEANWHILE, we're being ignored and dismissed even more drastically than LAST week. At this point, it's prob harder on us fans than the players. Being underestimated/underrated heading into a terminally hostile atmosphere only reinforces the chip-on-shoulder, come-together-as-a-TEAM solidarity that can help to produce the very upset overconfident LSU fans and play-it-safe "experts" are so sure WON'T be in the offing this time.
Less than 48 hrs from kickoff now and I won't belabor the point, will instead back away from predictions now and simply state, "I don't know what'll happen but I LIKE our chances heading in from here..."
Eat 'em UP, REPTILES!

The team enjoys playing as underdogs, and I find it less stressful to root for the underdogs.

 

[DRU2012]

The team enjoys playing as underdogs, and I find it less stressful to root for the underdogs.

Strange, but true. Funny, that. Not "ha-ha" funny--WEIRD "funny".
(...and still waiting interestedly to your further insistings vis-a-vis our future at QB, E--.)

 

[DRU2012]

Just to add a caveat/olive branch to this discussion about the evolution at the QB position, Trask himself addressed all of this in response to direct questioning at this week's pre-LSU presser...talked about Mullens' discussions with him "about that clock in your head" (good, simple and direct way to put it: We all know what he means)...That's part of the practical stuff that can come only with EXPERIENCE--But what gives ME confidence and reassurance here is the degree to which Kyle, from the moment he stepped up and IN, has TOTALLY assumed the ROLE of "Calm, cool, COLLECTED QB/LEADER"--That CAN'T be taught--it can be "learned"--but however he GOT it, Kyle Trask HAD "it" from the moment he stepped INTO "The Moment" here at UF, 2019 season. The stage just hasn't seemed too big, too much for him at any point here; there ARE still some things he needs work with, as we all can see--but they are of the "fixable", learnable, "comes with time and reps"-type of stuff that you can imagine with some degree of confidence this kid WILL work hard to master. It would be no large tragedy if he WERE to enter 2020 as the defacto starter--but I just envision the ideal scenario being one where, at the current rate of overall development on this Gator offense, our most hopeful one I believe has our offense coalescing around Emory Jones as the clear "Quarterback of the Future" here and NOW... Maybe that comes a few games in, somehow happens in some smoother, organic fashion; As long as the cohesion and mutual support this team has shown as players, squads, coming into their own as individuals AND as members of a tight TEAM continues to be the manner in which they improve and grow TOGETHER, we'll be fine. Part of what Mullens does that makes him such a rare Coach is the manner in which he HANDLES the whole team-"VIBE" aspect of things as the season throws curves at us--he's not just a "QUARTERBACK-Whisperer", I see him as an "OFFENSE-Whisperer", maybe even a "Football-TEAM-Whisperer", if that makes any sense.

 

[miltongator]

Our best shot at this one lies with Todd Grantham. If that's true, how in the world do we keep him in Orange and Blue?

 

[Escambia94]

Our best shot at this one lies with Todd Grantham. If that's true, how in the world do we keep him in Orange and Blue?

Grantham was offered $3M to coach in the NFL. Florida bumped his salary to $1.8M. Grantham likes the stability for his family for now, and he likes Gainesville for its family friendly environment. Things may change when his kids graduate high school in a few years.

 

[Escambia94]

Pre-game notes:

• Takeaways. The Gators lead the nation with 19 takeaways (two more than any other FBS team), and Florida’s 43 takeaways in the past two seasons are tied with Syracuse for the most in the FBS. Florida has 15 takeaways in its last four games alone -- which is equal to the season total of the team ranked No. 2 nationally in takeaways this year (San Jose State).
• Turnover margin. The Gators have forced 4 turnovers in three of its last four games for the first time since 2014 (four games). The Gators are only +2 in TO margin because they keep fumbling the ball.
• Interceptions. Florida’s 12 interceptions lead all FBS teams, and its 11 from the last four games alone is equal to the season total of the team ranked No. 2 nationally in interceptions this year (San Jose State). UF and San Jose State are the only FBS teams with double-digit interceptions, but Florida is the only FBS team with at least three interceptions in three games this year (three apiece against Kentucky, Tennessee, and Auburn). Florida is the only FBS team featuring four players (Shawn Davis, Kaiir Elam, Donovan Stiner, Marco Wilson) with multiple interceptions this year -- and only Missouri, Nebraska, and San Jose State have three players with multiple interceptions. Shawn Davis leads the Gators with three interceptions -- and he is one of 23 FBS players with that many this year. Davis entered this season with zero interceptions in 18 career games played. Note that Davis is only one year out from his ACL injury. Kaiir Elam has two interceptions and is one of six FBS true freshmen with multiple interceptions this year.
• Sacks. Florida’s 26 sacks are tied for third in the FBS, and its 50 tackles for loss are tied for fourth nationally. UF needed 11 games to eclipse 25 sacks last year, and it took seven games to eclipse 50 TFLs last year. Jonathan Greenard is Florida’s top disrupter in its front seven, as he ranks second in the SEC in tackles for loss (6.5) and sacks (4.0). Greenard’s 4.0 sacks are tied for 30th nationally. Florida is the only SEC team with more than five players with at least 2.0 sacks, a number seven Gators have reached -- Greenard - 4.0; Jabari Zuniga - 3.0; Khris Bogle, Zachary Carter, Trey Dean III, James Houston IV, Ventrell Miller,Jeremiah Moon - 2.0. Florida’s 10 sacks in its Week 0 win over Miami set a school record and were the highest total by an SEC team since Nov. 28, 2008, when Ole Miss had 10 against Mississippi State. In 19 games under defensive coordinator Todd Grantham, Florida has five-plus sacks in seven of them, as well as eight-plus tackles for loss in 10 of them.

 

[Escambia94]

Pre-game notes:

• Passing. The Gators have 250-plus passing yards in all 6 of their games this year, marking the first time since a 6-game stretch the spanned the final two games of 2003 and first 4 games of 2004 they have thrown for that many yards in 6 consecutive games. The Gators 9 games of 250-plus yards passing in 19 games under Mullen. It had 10 such games in the 38 games from 2015-17, and 9 such games in the 63 games from 2010-14. Since the start of the 2005 season, only the 2007 Gators -- a team which Mullen was the O.C. for -- threw for 250-plus yards at least 6 times within a season (they did it 8 times that year). The Gators threw for 300-plus yards in 3 straight games (312 vs. UT-Martin; 300 at Kentucky; 313 vs. Tennessee), marking the first time it has done that since the final two games of 2002 and its 2003 opener. The last time Florida had three consecutive games of 300-plus yards passing during the same season was back in 2001, when it eclipsed that mark in all 12 games. Florida has three 300-yard passing games in a season for the first time since 2009 (three games), and the only other seasons since 2003 it posted at least three 300-yard games were 2004 (four) and 2007 (three). In Mullen’s 19 games as head coach, the Gators already have four games of 300-plus yards passing -- with two coming against SEC teams. In UF’s 101 games from 2010-17, it totaled six 300-yard outings, with only two coming against SEC foes. Redshirt junior Kyle Trask took over Florida’s offense at the start of the fourth quarter against Kentucky, leading a comeback victory after Feleipe Franks left the game with an injury. Trask is 66 of 92 (71.7 percent) for 841 yards and six touchdowns (plus two rushing touchdowns) since taking over as starter. Trask ranks ninth nationally in completion percentage (70 of 97 / 72.2 percent) and 18th in passing efficiency (168.15).
• Rushing. Nothing to see here. Seriously. Other than a single rush by Lamical Perine, there is alarmingly nothing to brag about here.

 

[DRU2012]

Been watching the RRRivalry, where UT is finding inventively clumsy waysto lose game where their D came to play but their much-vaunted OFFENSE has pretty well stunk up the joint (except for one play, almost IMMEDIATELY followed by a sequential collapse of what til then been a great day for their Defense.
If our Gator squad plays ANYTHING like this, I promise to EXORIATE OUR COACH the way I just did Herman on their game-site : Now that all can see and now do acknowledge Hargraves' great lacks, HE'S not "over"rated by ANYONE for his "work" at UMich any longer--which then leaves Tom HERMAN as CLEARLY "the most overrated Coach in major college football"!

 

[DRU2012]

I am ANTSY TO THE MAX heafing into our ge in Death Valley later.
What worriesme most is I DON'T have any real "feel" for how this one will go.
Hoping for the best :
But if we can somehow eke out a win here, I promise some kind of "OVER THE TOP", REACTION that may INCLUDE some inventive, low-class verbal attack on The Balding Big-Mouthed Show the coming week--if I can then get THRU'.