OGT 2024: Week 12 Florida Gators vs #15 LSU Tigers

[Escambia94]

The Fightin' Napiers limp into week 12 at 4-5 (2-4) to face the 6-3 (3-2) Bengal Tigers in their 71st matchup in the 33-3-34 series. The Gators have not beaten LSU since 2018. No need to compare statistics because the Gators will likely be without their top QBs and RBs. LSU is favored by 4.5 and the over/under is at 55.5. These games tend to be high-scoring with an average score of 35-45 over the last 5 games. The Gators are averaging 12 points a game with Aidan Warner at QB, so it will be safe to take the under on the points unless LSU decides to pour it onto Florida. LSU is averaging 34 points a game. I will go ahead and predict a 42-10 victory for the Tigers.

Year​	Location​	FLA​	LSU​
2023​	Baton Rouge, LA​	35​	52​
2022​	Gainesville, FL​	35​	45​
2021​	Baton Rouge, LA​	42​	49​
2020​	Gainesville, FL​	34​	37​
2019​	Baton Rouge, LA​	28​	42​
2018​	Gainesville, FL​	27​	19​
2017​	Baton Rouge, LA​	16​	17​

 

[DRU2012]

I do not expect to make it very far into this one.
I didn't make it to the half against Texas.
No matter how I steal myself for a beat down, try to prepare myself emotionally, there will undoubtedly be new things to P ME OFF!
This past Saturday there was the series on our first possession, where we had stopped THEM then drove down the field, had 3rd and 3 at their 13 yard line--Billy has Aiden hand it off for a DIVE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE LINE!
He wasn't really even GOING for the first down OR the TD.
Even before we missed the ensuing fg (which felt inevitable, somehow--THAT is how things ARE nowadays!), I knew right then we had no chance: Our Coach wasn't even GOING for the win--On this day he believed neither in himself NOR his battered team. Maybe this time that was realism, but given everything surrounding the team, the Coach, the game and the overall situation, it just made me even MORE sick-at-heart.
I was, and I remain, just sick of it ALL.

 

[Escambia94]

Rex Grossman will be Mr. Two Bits!

 

[Escambia94]

Here is a list of visitors for the game. Do not get too attached to any of them. Vernell Brown’s father and grandfather were Gators. Vernel I was on the 1984 Best in SEC team.

Five-star Florida WR commit Vernell Brown III (2025)
Four-star Florida EDGE commit Jalen Wiggins (2025)
Four-star Florida RB commit Waltez Clark (2025)
Three-star Florida TE commit Tae'shaun Gelsey (2025)
Three-star Florida DL commit Jeramiah McCloud (2025)
Three-star Florida LB commit Myles Johnson (2025)
Four-star Florida QB commit Will Griffin (2026)
Four-star Florida CB commit Jaelen Waters (2026)
Five-star Ohio State CB commit Na'eem Offord (2025)
Five-star Texas WR commit Jaime Ffrench (2025)
Four-star Texas DL commit Myron Charles (2025)
Four-star Auburn OL commit Tavares Dice (2025)
Three-star Florida State OL commit Daniel Pierre Louis (2025)
Four-star UCF CB commit Jamarrion Gordon (2026)
Four-star DL Joseph Mbatchou (2025)
Three-star DL Stephon Shivers (2025)
Three-star DB Kaylib Singleton (2025)
Five-star TE Kaiden Prothro (2026)
Four-star DL Kendall Guervil (2026)
Four-star OL Da'Ron Parks (2026)
Unranked ATH Devonte Anderson (2026)

 

[DRU2012]

Here is a list of visitors for the game. Do not get too attached to any of them. Vernell Brown’s father and grandfather were Gators. Vernel I was on the 1984 Best in SEC team.

Five-star Florida WR commit Vernell Brown III (2025)
Four-star Florida EDGE commit Jalen Wiggins (2025)
Four-star Florida RB commit Waltez Clark (2025)
Three-star Florida TE commit Tae'shaun Gelsey (2025)
Three-star Florida DL commit Jeramiah McCloud (2025)
Three-star Florida LB commit Myles Johnson (2025)
Four-star Florida QB commit Will Griffin (2026)
Four-star Florida CB commit Jaelen Waters (2026)
Five-star Ohio State CB commit Na'eem Offord (2025)
Five-star Texas WR commit Jaime Ffrench (2025)
Four-star Texas DL commit Myron Charles (2025)
Four-star Auburn OL commit Tavares Dice (2025)
Three-star Florida State OL commit Daniel Pierre Louis (2025)
Four-star UCF CB commit Jamarrion Gordon (2026)
Four-star DL Joseph Mbatchou (2025)
Three-star DL Stephon Shivers (2025)
Three-star DB Kaylib Singleton (2025)
Five-star TE Kaiden Prothro (2026)
Four-star DL Kendall Guervil (2026)
Four-star OL Da'Ron Parks (2026)
Unranked ATH Devonte Anderson (2026)

"If only..."
Be nice if they all WERE solid late-season UF commits. Not quite a full on slam dunk, but less the desperate last-second scramble for relevancy.
If you were wondering where Billy's performance since coming here rates in comparative terms, just look at Sarkisian's at Texas. Fresh arriving in the SEC, certainly a challenging schedule these last couple of seasons (though not QUITE the mountain UF has faced here in '24), he has quickly built a strong and balanced program that has quickly established itself among the national elite. We more or less expect the same from each of our Coaching hires--but in spite of failing spectacularly thus far, Billy's still here.
Sigh. Let us see what THIS particular Saturday will bring...

 

[DRU2012]

Great stop. Then we start moving backwards on offense. Another wonderfully prepared Billy Napier offense.

 

[DRU2012]

Penalties killed that drive from the start.
MORE flags on Florida. This is just ridiculous.
Our Coach just cannot even prepare a proper script for the opening series!
I see all the signs of ANOTHER poor start here.
If this doesn't get turned around PRONTO, I am OUTTA HERE. This is all that I HATE about this team now.
ANOTHER penalty! I will soon be gone...Our D is being forced to work go hard, too long, too early. It will cost us soon enough.
Face it, folks:
We are not only gonna lose THIS game (condemning us to another losing record under this stiff of a Coach), but most of our prospective recruits for '25--and probably most of whatever is left when he finally gets fired after that.
But DJ sure can throw!

 

[DRU2012]

And he throws a TD!
Man--We DO have a couple of "redeeming features" here.

 

[DRU2012]

I still have serious doubts about our being able to hold a lead with so much time and pressure on our defense. Gonna take some takeaways by our D, I'm afraid....yeah, and more of a running game TOO.

 

[DRU2012]

Damn. Really NEEDED to hold them there.

 

[DRU2012]

Get the ball and KEEP IT FOR AWHILE.

 

[DRU2012]

But no...Our defense is beginning to wear down now--and it is still just the 1st quarter.
This is just what I was afraid of.

 

[DRU2012]

Once again. I just do not see a Coach who has any real plan-to-WIN...Once more we see a "plan-not-to-LOSE"--and we all have noted how well THAT has worked out under this Coach.
Ouf defense is keeping us in this, but they cannot be the on the field this much and hope to win.

 

[DRU2012]

And the LSU kicker misses the fg.
I am telling y'all:
A decent gameday playcaller could WIN with this same Gator squad.
Our defense has grown up, continued to improve, and with Lagway, Baugh and a developing O-line, we shoukd be doing better than we are showing.

 

[Escambia94]

I am okay with the progress but not optimistic about holding onto the lead.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1857897661933957418

 

[DRU2012]

Geez. Putrid play-calling.
I do not get the impression Billy has ANY idea what he is doing or what to do next.
Another missed opportunity.

 

[DRU2012]

I am okay with the progress but not optimistic about holding onto the lead.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1857897661933957418

Exactly how I see it, too.

 

[DRU2012]

This defense of ours is going to tire at this rate, no doubt about it.
So, looking ahead--maybe we CAN win if a hot young OC were given the opportunity here--but is there any REAL chance that Billy lets him DO that (if he even were somehow forced to take one on)?
The scenario we are likeliest seeing playing out now involves continued failure the next two seasons, leading inevitably to a TOTAL "cupboard bare" and a virtual "wasteland-start" for this program and ehomever takes on the difficult project of beginning again.
And here I am calmly discussing all this in the first quarter where we still have a 7-0 LEAD!
But let's face it: NOTHING we have seen from this Coach's teams or game-plans instills ultimate confidence in a positive outcome.
They are finishing off the "wearing down of our Defense"-process even as I type this.
And yes, there's the Tiger touchdownto tue thus one up.
We won't WIN a "shoot out"--and with a now seriously tiring defense, that is what it's gonna take from here.
Billy wouldn't know how to call that kind of a "run-it-up-to-survive" game if his LIFE depended on it!

 

[DRU2012]

I am SO "tired" MYSELF!
Because we are NOT that "bad" anymore.
Too often we just START badly, thanks to our Coach.
Even now, we are tied here--but I have NO feeling that we will eventually triumph. ON the contrary, I FULLY expect us to lose this one BADLY.
Yup. I have to admit it. Even as we drive the ball, tied, late in the first half.
I'll go this far:
If we close out the half here with a Touchdown and tgeckead, I will give us a CHANCE at maybe staying in it. That is as far as I can go.
Anything else, we'll, you've all seen what I've see,.
And again--Billy doesn't even GO for the first.
HE was PLAYING for the 3.
"PLEASE LET OUR NEXT COACH BE THE GUY THAT GOES FOR THE TD THERE!!!"

 

[DRU2012]

Now THEY will go for it...you watch:
We will go to the half DOWN, and we'll never be back in it.
Another game we LOOKED like we were in, but in truth, with THIS Coach never really were.
We go to the half DOWN now, dread even WATCHING the second half.