The Next Coach of the Florida Gators will be...

[DRU2012]

Post Script:
I finally was able, on a Friday night, SIX DAYS AFTER THE ACTUAL (Tennessee) GAME, able to suffer through the RE-living of frustration and disappointment that whole Gator fans' day-AFTER angst here with Aly Peak's "open-mike"/"Air your gripes!" presentation displayed. Here on the night BEFORE THE KENTUCKY GAME!...The FIRST time (last weekend) I could only take a call or two before having to bail, overwhelmed by all I was still digesting at that point.
I think Aly herself and most of the callers all make valid, reasonable points--showing more perspective and fairness at that point (almost a full WEEK ago now) than I could have managed at that point.
The biggest underlying concepts here seem to be: "TIME IS UP!", "Billy, YOU chose NOT to bring in an OC here in your THIRD SEASON", and
"Given your lack of skill, depth OR flexibility in play-calling", THE END IS AT HAND.
You have only your SELF to blame.

 

[Escambia94]

The problem with Napier is that he does everything right before the game, but in the game he is absolutely horrible. He needs an offensive coordinator not because the offense is bad, but because he calls the right plays at the wrong time and the wrong plays at the right time.

Furthermore, UF can protect itself from in inevitable coaching carousel turmoil by hiring a general manager who is above the head coach. Napier could be a great general manager, but he is not an SEC caliber head coach. He is not a power conference quality offensive coordinator. He is fine at everything else.

 

[DRU2012]

The problem with Napier is that he does everything right before the game, but in the game he is absolutely horrible. He needs an offensive coordinator not because the offense is bad, but because he calls the right plays at the wrong time and the wrong plays at the right time.

Furthermore, UF can protect itself from in inevitable coaching carousel turmoil by hiring a general manager who is above the head coach. Napier could be a great general manager, but he is not an SEC caliber head coach. He is not a power conference quality offensive coordinator. He is fine at everything else.

I understand your thinking by now, E--...
But here's the problem: By all I am hearing behind the scenes, despite his humble outer facade, Billy is COMPLETELY CONVINCED THAT HE IS THE SMARTEST GUY IN THE ROOM.
THAT is why he refuses to hire an OC, and word is that no one around hIm believes he will use one properly in ANY event--that he will ever even FOLLOW an OC's plans or recommendations if he were forced to accept one. Ditto for some "General Manager" (or whatever ELSE they impose from above) who is brought in to essentially accomplish the same thing.
And what is his "terrible ultimate punishment" if he dares to stubbornly outright REFUSE such a conditional continuance here?
A 25 MILLION DOLLAR BUY OUT??!
Um...Yeah, nice "whiphand", Mr.Strickland.

 

[Escambia94]

I understand your thinking by now, E--...
But here's the problem: By all I am hearing behind the scenes, despite his humble outer facade, Billy is COMPLETELY CONVINCED THAT HE IS THE SMARTEST GUY IN THE ROOM.
THAT is why he refuses to hire an OC, and word is that no one around hIm believes he will use one properly in ANY event--that he will ever even FOLLOW an OC's plans or recommendations if he were forced to accept one. Ditto for some "General Manager" (or whatever ELSE they impose from above) who is brought in to essentially accomplish the same thing.
And what is his "terrible ultimate punishment" if he dares to stubbornly outright REFUSE such a conditional continuance here?
A 25 MILLION DOLLAR BUY OUT??!
Um...Yeah, nice "whiphand", Mr.Strickland.

To be fair, Scott Stricklin is not at fault for the contract. Sports agents like Jimmy Sexton know that this is the going rate for an elite football program. Look at every coach whose team is consistently in the top 10. They all make top 10 money.

 

[DRU2012]

To be fair, Scott Stricklin is not at fault for the contract. Sports agents like Jimmy Sexton know that this is the going rate for an elite football program. Look at every coach whose team is consistently in the top 10. They all make top 10 money.

OK...I admit to a real gut-level grudge against offering that kind of back-end "reward for failure" in a contract--whomever offered it.
So let's put THAT part of the above aside...
Saturday's eventual beat down of UK is NOT to be mistaken for Billy turning any kind of CORNER here.
First of all, it was a closer game than the final score might indicate; watch the replay...we could have easily been BEHIND 28-27 well into the 3rd quarter, DESPITE outplaying ANOTHER SEC team.
Then there was the same old gutless "three straight dives into the line" to try to run out the clock the last 2 minutes of the first half.
We just gave up a careless 99 yard kickoff return in a game we HAD lately been dominating on BOTH SIDES of the ball. Our hot Lagway-led offense had been operating like the proverbial "hot knife through butter", we had plenty of time and times out AND the kid was throwing DARTS wherever he aimed them, but we get the same old conservative "Billy Bad Ball" run run run PUNT there--because his "analytics card" (upon which his lengthy losing record at UF has continued to develop) TELLS HIM that's the right thing to DO there. The crowd in the Swamp boos and Billy scratches his head--just cannot figure WHY...
And about that "99 yd return"...between continued special team breakdowns, along with MORE "illegal substitution" and "too many men on the field" penalties, the SMALL-but-nonetheless-DAMAGING DETAILS continue to threaten what progress is made.
The guy IS "THE WORST GAME-COACH WE'VE EVER HAD!"--You were exactly right in declaring that near-halftime Saturday, E--.
He has to go, man. That hasn't changed.
Oh, if we happened to WIN these last five games he'd be picked up. I can see THAT...Won't change much in the long run EXCEPT give us one more losing season, IMHO--but were that to be how the rest of this season goes, I would understand and grudgingly accept its inevitability.
But I don't see that coming to pass, I am truly sad to say. "Sad"? Of COURSE: As a Gator, do you not think I would be overJOYED along with every OTHER Gator at such a miraculous turn around?
Because "MIRACULOUS" is exactly what it would BE! Bloody HELL I would TAKE IT, however it came to be.
In the long run, big picture though, you don't wanna find yourselves counting on "miracles" for consistent success in the SEC.
No, "talent" and "coaching" (and OK, a LITTLE "luck" here and there) are what will get you there and perhaps sustain such success.
We don't have enough of ANY of them yet here.
STARTING maybe to reach that "magic boiling point" with respect to one of those, "TALENT"; But in this new system that can come (and GO) rather quickly. If we don't get the right Coach in here FAST, that'll slip away too.
Get 'em BOTH in and the rest will take care of itself.

 

[Escambia94]

Here is a list of coaches with championships and time in a power conference. Based on realistic requirements, the most viable coaches are Lane Kiffin, Lincoln Riley, Chris Klieman, and Curt Cignetti. I am not entertaining the other names here, but I am showing them here just so you can see where the realistic candidates rank among the ideal candidates.

Coach​	Championships​	Years Power Conf​	WL%​	PRAT​
Mack Brown​	2005 BCS Champion​	32​	68.9​	2205​
Kirk Firentz​	2002, 2004 Big 10 Champion​	26​	62.3​	1620​
Mike Gundy​	2011 Big 12 Champion​	20​	68.2​	1364​
Dabo Swinney​	2016, 2018 CFP Champion​	17​	79.5​	1352​
Les Miles​	2007 BCS Champion​	18​	66.5​	1197​
Urban Meyer​	2006, 2008 BCS Champion, 2014 CFP Champion​	13​	86.1​	1119​
Billy Napier (pre-2022)	2020, 2022 Sun Belt Champion; 2018-2021 Sun Belt West	4​	80.0​	1115​
Brian Kelly​	2012 BCS Runner-Up​	15​	73.8​	1107​
Jimbo Fisher​	2013 BCS Champion​	14​	72.7​	1018​
Bret Bielema​	2010, 2011, 2012 Big 10 Champion​	16​	60.5​	968​
James Franklin​	2016 Big 10 Champion​	14​	67.9​	951​
Jim Harbaugh​	2023 CFP Champion​	13​	71.7​	932​
Kyle Whittingham​	2021, 2022 Pac-12 Champion​	14​	64.5​	903​
Dan Mullen	2020 SEC East	13​	62.8​	816​
Kirby Smart​	2021, 2022 CFP Champion​	9​	85.8​	772​
Pete Carroll​	2003, 2004 BCS Champion, 2013 Super Bowl Champion​	9​	83.6​	752​
Chip Kelly​	2010 BCS Runner-Up​	10​	66.4​	664​
Lane Kiffin​	2017, 2019 C-USA Champion​	10​	66.4​	664​
Gus Malzahn​	2013 BCS Runner-Up​	10​	65.6​	656​
Lincoln Riley​	2017, 2018, 2019 CFP Participant​	8​	80.9​	647​
Gary Patterson​	2014 Big 12 Champion​	10​	59.5​	595​
Steve Sarkisian​	2023 CFP Participant​	10​	59.2​	592​
Ed Orgeron​	2019 CFP Champion​	10​	58.8​	588​
Pat Narduzzi​	2021 ACC Champion​	10​	57.6​	576​
Mario Cristobal​	2019, 2020 Pac-12 Champion​	8​	65.8​	526​
Ryan Day​	2020 CFP Runner-Up​	6​	87.3​	524​
Art Briles​	2013, 2014 Big 12 Champion​	8​	63.7​	510​
Clay Helton​	2017 Pac-12 Champion​	7​	65.7​	460​
Billy Napier (2024)	2020, 2022 Sun Belt Champion; 2018-2021 Sun Belt West	6​	65.5​	426​
Chris Klieman​	2022 Big 12 Champion​	6​	63.6​	382​
Sonny Dykes​	2022 CFP Participant​	7​	49.4​	346​
Mike Norvell​	2023 ACC Champion​	5​	60.8​	304​
Gene Chizik​	2010 BCS Champion​	6​	50.0​	300​
Mark Helfrich​	2014 CFP Runner-Up​	4​	69.8​	279​
Kalen DeBoer​	2023 CFP Runner-Up​	3​	90.3​	271​
Dave Aranda​	2021 Big 12 Champion​	5​	49.0​	245​
Curt Cignetti	2022, 2023 Sun Belt East Division	3​	78.2​	235​
Luke Fickell​	2021 CFP Participant​	3​	51.7​	155​

 

[DRU2012]

A bit overwhelming--but your usual exhaustive work, E--. The only thing missing is your actual "PERSONAL recommendations"...
I know that is intentional, but are we not at least closing IN on maybe a handful of "preferences"?
Just to be fair, I will go first here:
(1) I still haven't seen anything LIKE "enough evidence" that we should retain Napier--I personally don't believe we ought to (he won't use Lagway properly, for one thing)--but after UK win and another bye-week heading into The Party, I'm willing to set that argument aside for the moment...
(2) As for MY "preferences", I have admitted to "coming around" to Lane: I just believe he could recruit well AND WIN WITH WHAT'S ALREADY HERE...and his flamboyance, if anything, can WORK (in fact in the past HAS worked) here at UF. Beyond Lane, I have to admit to being INTRIGUED by a handful of those on your list, but must also admit that I really don't know that much about ANY of them. Not enough to confidently say, "Yeah, HE might well be a good fit..."
Trouble is, those making the hires last dozen PLUS years haven't hit any "homeruns" EITHER.
I'll be doing some research, taking longer, closer looks at SEVERAL of these guys, but the AD and his "braintrust" have GOT to get it right THIS time!!!

 

[Escambia94]

@DRU2012 I updated the chart above and re-ranked my choices for the Florida Gators head coach in 2025 as such:
1. Billy Napier with a new offensive coordinator. Before Napier arrived in Gainesville in late 2022, he was the best candidate. Do not let hindsight and negativity fool you. He had an 80% winning record, which was among the highest college football at the time--only surpassed by Kalen DeBoer who is struggling somewhat at Alabama, Gus Malzahn who is struggling at UCF, and Ryan Day. I do not see of them as realistic options at Florida, so pre-2022 Billy Napier is my favorite. The man who said "Scared Money Don't Make Money" still exists within that shell, but he will need to hire a dedicated offensive coordinator from outside this staff. The offense itself is not the problem. The problem is that Napier cannot adjust the offense in the middle of a game while also managing all aspects of the game. This rating drops significantly if he cannot prove that he has turned the team around with the 48-20 drubbing of Kentucky.

2. Lane Kiffin. If Napier goes, then Kiffin plus his best staff from Ole Miss and other schools will be a good upgrade. Even with Kiffin there is no guarantee that he will be a home run hire. Kiffin would at least have the floor of Dan Mullen with a slightly better ceiling, unless it is Florida's resources that gets him over the hump. At Ole Miss his offense is limited.

3. Curt Cignetti is an interesting choice given the number of times he has been overlooked as a head coach. He has plenty of experience. I think he would be less of a home run hire than Kiffin, but he would be a safe, stable coach.

4. Lincoln Riley is regressing to the mean at USCw and I am not sure why. On paper he ranks right up there with Kiffin, but in practice he is getting outcoached lately.

5. Chris Klieman is an interesting name to throw around. If the others do not take the job, this is the furthest down the list I would go.

If I were Scott Stricklin I would keep Napier if he can win 2 of the 5 games against UGA, UTx, LSU, Ole Miss, and Clown School--and if he hires a name brand offensive coordinator. If he loses to FSU at Ron Zook Field, then do not let him on the bus back to Gainesville. The first person to call if Stricklin fires Napier is Kiffin. If Kiffin says no, then Lincoln Riley is the only other name brand to consider. Cignetti and Klieman are the backup options. One thing I would do regardless of who is hired is to do away with large buyouts. Tell Jimmy Sexton to pound sand if he makes that a requirement on these contracts. However, since he represents only the best coaches, this might not be an option.

 

[DRU2012]

@Escambia94,
(1) I TOO have lately found myself recalling the situation (and my attitude towards it at the time, when I admittedly had little awareness of Billy on MY "radar" until being filled in by various folks "close to thd program"--and came AROUND to the idea), and the only reason find myself not-quite swayed even if he WERE TO lead us to 6-and-6 from here is because I DO NOT BELIEVE HE WOULD LISTEN TO THAT THEORETICAL OC that was somehow forced upon him as a condition of his being retained: That big buy out CONTINUES to sit there, a silent argument for his ultimate stubborness...a stubborness that both experience AND knowledgeable voices behind-the-scenes INSIST is a major feature of our Coach's personality. Billy really DOES think he knows better, and continues to insist on tge opportunity to prove it...and that huge chunk of cash is not exactly an effective counter-argument!
(2) Aside from Kiffen, I am again in the uncomfortable position of simply not personally knowing enough about these various ."potential alternatives" to feel I am currently in a position to once informed-support for ANY of them.
And the list continues to lengthen...lately for example Eli Drinkwitz (Mizzou Coach) jhas been getting a lot of mention, his name just gge latest in play a "another perfect fit staring us in the face!".
One thing I am fairly sure of is the misuse of the word "perfect" ANYWHERE in this discussion. When it comes to "FIT", the most we can shoot for is "BEST fit"--and even THAT is a shot in the darkness that comprises "HOPE" nowadays.
However, if this team continues to improve in the course of their ongoing hard buy-in PLAY for their Coach, and somehow manages to win THREE of thos five remaining games, FSU (you're right--he goes REGARDLESS if they lose at Joke Cambell) plus TWO among the remaining "gauntlet" and we get to 7 wins from here somehow after all, unlikely as that is, then I am resigned to the near certainty that Billy stays on for 4th season BUT HOPEFULLY STILL IS REQUIRED TO ADD A CREATIVE OC--one whom we can only HOPE actually inherits in-game play-calling duties!
I continue to lean towards "fire Billy, hire Lane" if 6-and-6 is the bestcwe can manage--but by the talk and "vibe" fear that maybe that gets what SEVEN wins brings us almost for CERTAIN.
BUT here comes another huge bye-week, and THEN WE'LL SEE!

 

[DRU2012]

Heading into the bye week, Ali Peak makes a STARTLINGLY straightforward point regarding our Coaching carousel:
"Remember, we basically traded in a 'solid playcaller' (Dan Mullen) for a 'solid recruiter' (Billy Napier). Our 2025 recruiting class is currently ranked FIFTY-FIRST!!!"
She does go on to grant that players wanna go where they can shine--WITH A WINNER! And these days they have more opportunity and freedom to do that (then change their minds for a "better offer") more than has EVER been allowed before.
But whose fault does the worst 3 season record for a new Coach in Gator HISTORY fall upon?
Again and again (and most glaring OBVIOUSLY quite recently at TENNESSEE) the answer has CLEARLY been, "BILLY F'ING NAPIER"!
Just bear that all in mind in whatever eventual conclusions anyone comes to with regard to voicing their support or ultimate condemnation. I stand with my comments and conclusions previously aired here and in other threads: I am personally OFF the Napier-Supporter Train, but grasp the possibility that this team's reaching 6 wins MAY get him a 4th season here after all--and that 7 probably CLINCHES it!
I think he has already proven his unsuitability at this level--indeed, his being a particularly BAD FIT at UF...Again: The "SCARED MONEY DON'T MAKE MONEY" guy in truth repeatedly shows HE is "THE SCARED MONEY GUY"!!!
From where I'M sitting, except for the minutia of "How?", "When?" and "How MUCH?", he should ALREADY be gone. Every WEEK is time (and recruits) lost. I'm afraid the whole "administrative balance and ongoing exchange-of-ideas" has somehow broken down--is ITSELF lost, and needs to take a long look at "itself" as a result.
Its thinking and decision-making process isn't currently functioning properly--hence its CHOICES aren't reliable, the result of an unwieldy system that has not come properly to terms with all the "NEW CFB REALITIES"!
Regardless, there are huge decisions to be made, and SO FAR their most prominent move has been...NO MOVE AT ALL.
NOT an encouraging sign of wisdom, decisiveness, or what is to COME.
It is NO SIGN AT ALL.
Is it any WONDER Gator Nation is "worried and confused"?

 

[Escambia94]

It sucks that Napier was dealt a bad hand, but he will walk away with between $25.7 and $51.8 million. In December 2021, Jimmy Sexton convinced Scott Stricklin to ink that contract which was 7th best in the country, but Napier has not delivered top-10 results. Some of the issues are somewhat understandable with the constantly changing rules in college football. If Napier is fired this December, the next coach will have to deal with a whole new set of rules as well with revenue sharing starting in 2025. The coaches that thrive in this new era will be the ones who can adapt college football to an NFL construct while getting creative with the rules.

What is the timeline? Assume Napier does not do enough to earn another year and Scott Stricklin fires him.

- Expect Napier to lose to #2 UGA, #5 Texas, #8 LSU, and #18 Ole Miss.
- Poach a general manager or assistant from the NFL.
- Fire Napier before Thanksgiving.
- Name Ron Roberts as interim head coach.
- Beat FSU.
- Lump all the NIL money on DJ Lagway, Jaden Baugh, some offensive linemen, and key defensive personnel.
- Expect 30+ transfers on December 1.
- Sign anyone with a pulse on Early Signing Day (December 4).
- Pay $60M+ to Kiffin or Cignetti after January 1. Ole Miss and Kansas should be out of the playoffs by then.
- Sign anyone with a pulse on National Signing Day (February 9).

 

[DRU2012]

@Escambia94,
LOL...Every now and then you manage to somehow fill a totally bummed-out situation with HILARITY, E--! This is one of those times.
I mean, the above is a selection of possible pending specific sequences all put together, tied neatly and presented as a somehow "sensible package".
Of course, the details are debateable--both the process and its ultimate outcome could develop in any number of ways. And as I began this discussion proposing, "What are the potential "likely changes" if/when there are any changes in what you propose on Line One?"
In fact, about the only thing that seems even CLOSE to "predictable" came from you in another thread:
That Billy gets FIRED IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE REGULAR SEASON ENDS if we lose to FSU this time--and maybe even THAT is in question if we have somehow gone at least 2-and-2 durimg that preceding "Line One gauntlet"!
(Insert obligatory "in the unlikely event THAT happens" HERE)
In other words, at the moment we are right back where we started: "worried and confused", with NO IDEA (and little WORD) of what our supposed "braintrust" has in "mind" (quotes employed here advisedly).
Intentionally humorous or NOT, I suppose I prefer YOUR "multi-track scenario" to this "baffled vacuum".
I MEAN that. My very real fear here is that currently there is NO ONE "upstairs" showing even THAT much ongoing "complex detailed thinking", the kind of long-range taxonomic analysis that the current situation requires.

 

[Escambia94]

All that Napier needs to do to simplify all of this is win the rest of the games on the schedule and I will fully endorse his return in 2025. That is the only way he gets to 0.500 in the conference. He is currently 8-12 in the SEC since 2022, and there are only 4 more SEC games. That means he must win 3 games to stay above 0.500 at Florida (to finish 19-18), but that puts him below 0.500 in the conference regardless of how those losses stack up. Regardless, he cannot afford to lose to FSU at any cost.

 

[DRU2012]

All that Napier needs to do to simplify all of this is win the rest of the games on the schedule and I will fully endorse his return in 2025. That is the only way he gets to 0.500 in the conference. He is currently 8-12 in the SEC since 2022, and there are only 4 more SEC games. That means he must win 3 games to stay above 0.500 at Florida (to finish 19-18), but that puts him below 0.500 in the conference regardless of how those losses stack up. Regardless, he cannot afford to lose to FSU at any cost.

Yes, "winning out" on THIS schedule would indeed "SIMPLIFY" things FOR one and ALL, no?
Well, everyone but our erstwhile "front office" (and probably all those "media experts/prognosticators" out there too...).
Even I would by that point have had to completely RE-evaluate all my hand-wringing, gut-twisting late-night "drink'n'thinkers" coming to grips with the conclusions that this season's games (not to mention a whole lot of what came before) have forced upon us.
But as always, the caveat "in the unlikely event THAT happens" has to be assumed in ANY discussion of the week's more optimistic ("fantastic"?) theoretical Gator outcomes.
"No use worrying about it either WAY" is the one that continues to get me THROUGH all this...
I mean, if the worst thing that could happen is we somehow start and keep BEATING all these currently "powerhouse programs" , totally screwing up everyone's nice little handle on the CFB, not to mention our OWN ideas about where OUR future lies, so BE it:
I will TAKE IT!!!

 

[DRU2012]

Here's the constant "catch" in whatever thoughts one has of maybe Billy's team somehow doing enough to save his job, at least for one more season:
We have just seen no evidence that he has the wherewithal--call it brains, balls, Coaching skills--to ever DO the things he NEEDS to do to allow them to pull that off.
For example, it is only with Mertz' injury that he was ever gonna fully advance DJ to QB-1 this season, no matter WHAT he adds to the offense...I love all that Graham has brought to this team in terms of loyalty and leadership--I'm just saying that no matter what the objective evidence (debateable as it may be) might have SCREAMED, THIS Coach could not have made that move even if it WAS time to DO so.
NOW I believe we are faced with a similar debate at Running Back: To ME there is every sign that Baugh should be our #1 RB now, heading into the Cocktail Party...But given his same stubbornness, I CANNOT see Billy making that move. Same deal as above: Only an injury FORCES him to stick with the right guy, but it's looking like Montrell will be cleared to play.
Look, no one expects this Gator team to beat UGA next Saturday in J-ville ANYWAY--But whatever small chance we'd have depends upon a "young, hot, UNEXPECTED version" of that team ("unexpected" in both the players that are out there, AND in how that Coach USES them) somehow putting enough points on the board for the surging defense to somehow make stand up at the end.
I suppose what I am suggesting is that everyone bear the above in mind should we lose in predictedly embarrassing fashion; ie. Lose in the manner I warn AGAINST here...That not just the fans but the "AD", "backroom braintrust" and Boosters all remember what WASN'T done, all the things that (as usual) were NOT tried.
"Woulda/Shoulda/Coulda": THE STORY OF THE GATORS UNDER BILLY NAPIER.

 

[Escambia94]

I do not care what anyone else says about Napier playing for his job. He burned up all of games that could have earned him some grace. Napier has no more margin. Any loss that he takes will make him a sub-0.500 coach, and that does not fit the Gator Standard.