Week 12: Florida Gators vs Missouri Tigers 11/20/2021

[Escambia94]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1460262757752840205

Whatever you do, I would not bet any money on this game. For some odd reason the 5-5 Fightin' Gators of Gainesville are favored by 8.5 over the 5-5 Mighty, Mighty Tigers of Columbus, Missouri. Missouri's defense is horrible, which is why they will look all-world against the Gators. C-Rob's defense will be slightly better after flipping the script in the second half of last week's debacle. Fun fact: The Gators have never scored more than 23 points in Columbia. Scores in Columbia: W 23-6, L 16-45, W 21-3, L 17-36. Scores in Gainesville: W 41-17, L 17-38, W 40-14, L 13-42, and W 14-7.

Here is a look at the Florida Gators season to this point. The Gators lost 3 games where the SP+ predicted a victory. The SP+ metric is usually better at predicting success, but if the model fails against Missouri then I expect it to fail the same way against FSU next week.

Date	Opponent	Outcome	SP+	Offense SP+	Defense SP+	Win Expectancy
9/4	FAU	W 35-14	87	94	72	100%
9/11	@ USF	W 42-20	110	99	116	100%
9/18	#1 Alabama	L 29-31	3	3	10	47%
9/25	Tennessee	W 38-14	24	18	39	99%
10/2	@ Kentucky	L 13-20	42	45	40	44%
10/9	Vanderbilt	W 42-0	120	120	114	100%
10/16	@ LSU	L 42-49	63	63	65	39%
10/30	#1 Georgia	L 7-34	1	5	1	1%
11/6	@ South Carolina	L 17-40	78	88	59	55%
11/13	Samford	W 70-52	49 *	4*	119*	97%
11/20	@ Missouri		75	47	96	72%
11/27	FSU		53	51	51	71%

Florida's offense is amazingly efficient, especially when they focus on the run game. The Gator offense is so efficient when it is not turning the ball over that they have only attempted two field goals in the red zone! The Gators have not seen many explosive plays since September.


Here is a look at the Missouri Tigers season to this point. Missouri is performing about as expected in terms of W-L record based on SP+ metrics.

Date	Opponent	Outcome	SP+	Offense SP+	Defense SP+	Win Expectancy
9/4	Central Michigan	W 34-24	92	71	107	91%
9/11	@ Kentucky	L 28-35	42	45	40	10%
9/18	SEMO	W 59-28	67*	56*	77*	100%
9/25	@ BCU	L 34-41 (OT)	60	52	64	40%
10/2	Tennessee	L 24-62	24	18	39	30%
10/9	North Texas	W 48-35	108	108	104	76%
10/16	#21 Texas A&M	L 14-35	8	32	7	6%
10/30	@ Vanderbilt	W 37-28	120	120	114	86%
11/6	@ #1 Georgia	L 6-43	1	5	1	1%
11/13	South Carolina	W 31-28	78	88	59	90%
11/20	Florida		22	8	46	28%
11/26	@ Arkansas		34	43	29	30%

Missouri's play-makers on offense are 3* RFR QB Connor Bazelak, and 2* JR RB Tyler Badie. Their highest rated player is 4* JR TE Daniel Parker. On defense be sure to keep an eye out on 4* WLB Chad Bailey. Their defensive team captain is 3* SS Martez Manuel. Missouri can win if they control the clock with a solid running game and take advantage of Florida's eventual brainfarts as one of the worst teams in America in turnover margin.

Logically the Gators should win this game, but in this series logic does not seem to prevail. To make matters worse, the Gators are playing without a defensive coordinator experienced with calling plays against the run. so this could be a low-scoring affair if Missouri decides to milk the clock and take advantage of Florida's inability to tackle. A the same time, Missouri does tend to throw interceptions. I predict the Gators break the 5-5 series tie and emerge victorious by scoring more than 23 points in Columbia, Missouri for the first time. Bold prediction: 36-21, Gators.

 

[DRU2012]

I don’t know what to think, what to expect re this one.
If the team is still with the Coach, you’d think they’d play hard this time, anyway:
I mean, no matter WHAT recent “public reports” have said (that Mullen WON’T be fired during the season, and so on), things could change very quickly if they come out and immediately lay ANOTHER bomb of a poor showing out there in Columbia.
At the very least, it would likely not bode well for what happens AFTER the season ends (which would likely be all the earlier with a loss now)...
And if we lose this AND the traditional finale vs FSU, well, never mind all the back-chatter: I have a pretty strong feeling Mullen’s reign doesn’t survive THAT scenario.
I HATE even HAVING these kinds of discussions at this point in our season.
At worst, I want to be talking about what we are doing to “RIGHT the ship”, hearing from “Gators who care”, signs and reasons for hope from those close to the program.
At this point, we’ve just GOT to hunker down, play tight and tough, show some guts and unity and just WIN A COUPLA GAMES to finish up the regular season on a bit of an upswing.
“Stop the bleeding”, anyway.
That and a few more “saves” and additional “big pick-ups” on the recruiting trail could go a surprisingly long way in changing the whole vibe around our team and program now.
It’s about time this team got ANGRY, came together AS A TEAM and KICKED SOME ASS!

 

[Leakfan12]

I think it would be a shootout

 

[DRU2012]

I think it would be a shootout

Looks like the only way we WIN games the rest of the way.

 

[Escambia94]

Keep in mind the following:
- Dan Mullen is 3-1 (2-1 at Florida, 1-0 at Mississippi State) vs. Missouri in his career.
- In three games vs. Missouri under Mullen, Florida has outscored the Tigers, 81-61 (+6.7 PPG), and out-gained UM, 1,223 yards to 975 (+82.7 YPG), which includes an 885-662 (+74.3 YPG) passing yardage advantage for the Gators.
- Mullen is 1-0 against Missouri head coach Eliah Drinkwitz after last year’s 41-17 victory in Gainesville.
- Florida has totaled 300-plus yards and 200-plus passing yards in six-straight games vs. Missouri, which includes some of the worst teams fielded by the Gators thanks to Jim McDeathThreats.
- Each of the last eight games in this series has been decided by 17 or more points.
- Florida (6.0 YPC) and Missouri (5.2 YPC) rank first and third in the SEC in rushing yards per carry, respectively.
- Despite all the bad news it is important to note that Florida’s 4,924 total yards is the team’s second-highest total through eight games in the last 20 seasons, trailing only the 2020 campaign -- while the team’s mark of 492.4 YPG is on pace to rank fifth in program history.

 

[DRU2012]

Keep in mind the following:
- Dan Mullen is 3-1 (2-1 at Florida, 1-0 at Mississippi State) vs. Missouri in his career.
- In three games vs. Missouri under Mullen, Florida has outscored the Tigers, 81-61 (+6.7 PPG), and out-gained UM, 1,223 yards to 975 (+82.7 YPG), which includes an 885-662 (+74.3 YPG) passing yardage advantage for the Gators.
- Mullen is 1-0 against Missouri head coach Eliah Drinkwitz after last year’s 41-17 victory in Gainesville.
- Florida has totaled 300-plus yards and 200-plus passing yards in six-straight games vs. Missouri, which includes some of the worst teams fielded by the Gators thanks to Jim McDeathThreats.
- Each of the last eight games in this series has been decided by 17 or more points.
- Florida (6.0 YPC) and Missouri (5.2 YPC) rank first and third in the SEC in rushing yards per carry, respectively.
- Despite all the bad news it is important to note that Florida’s 4,924 total yards is the team’s second-highest total through eight games in the last 20 seasons, trailing only the 2020 campaign -- while the team’s mark of 492.4 YPG is on pace to rank fifth in program history.

The upshot of all that being, as was already my impression, for all our difficulties and shortcomings as a team (and lately as a program), it is neither offensive tactics nor talent that are limiting us right now. Big surprise: For the moment, tighten up the defense and we can likely get out of this season at least without much further difficulty or humiliation.
Beyond that, all the rest still applies: Starting with RECRUITING, of course...Much has been said, much more will have to be DONE, and the weeks and months ahead will be difficult and complex no matter what. But let’s focus on the immediate “here and now”, and see if we can’t at least GET to “all the rest” with team, Coach and pride fully intact.

 

[DRU2012]

This time out it looks like it’ll be “the other guys” who are facing the “last minute bad luck”, at least late at the end of practice week:
Whereas heretofore it’s been US who have been worn down and worn out in various ways and to varying degrees as GameDay has approached, this week it is Mizzou who is banged up coming into this one.
This is one time I look for us to show no mercy, to “step on THEIR neck” for the sake of saving that of our Coach—and what’s left of our season while we’re AT it!
Be a real good time to “finish strong”, quiet much of the shriller, more hysterical aspects of the panicky public commentary that has surrounded much of this season in escalating fashion.

 

[miltongator]

Sadly, I have absolutely no confidence in this team. They have been jaw-droppingly incompetent at times this year. I know ya'll have never heard this before...."wait till next year". Problem is, it'll probably take more than a year to get the mess straightened out. In spite of that......GO GATORS!!!!!

 

[DRU2012]

Unfortunately, that about sums this team up right now.
And so far today, it is more of the same...This time, our defense isn’t playing so badly thus far—but our offense is “off” somehow.
Geez...If there were one time you’d hope we’d rise to the occasion it’d be now.

 

[DRU2012]

Meanwhile, that was CLEARLY Pass Interference on that 3rd and goal.
Now Tigers driving. Here may come the Gator Collapse.
I don’t know if I can watch this.
I’ll do so quietly for now.
If I’m not back soon, you’ll know why—by the score.

 

[DRU2012]

Jones not looking like the same guy as last week; of course, the quality of defense may have something to do with that.
Weirdly called by Mullen, though—either “GO FOR IT”, or work that running game throughout, run them down.
Btw: Do we EVER get turnovers?

 

[DRU2012]

I give up. Crucial 4thdown, and you hit their center for the Offsides???
We will lose this game.

 

[DRU2012]

Later, Gators. If I’m wrong, and we somehow come back and pull this out— it’ll be in SPITE of whatever bad mojo MY watching seems to involve.
Yes, I am THAT depressingly, paranoidly superstitious at this point!
So I will bow out for the moment.

 

[Escambia94]

Meh.

 

[DRU2012]

Still not watching—but my phone auto-updates Gator game scores...so I guess the “effect” remains the same:
I don’t need the details to know that we are continuing to throw away an unexpectedly decent showing by our DEFENSE.
This Gator squad DEFINES “inconsistency”!
Today it is our OFFENSE that is found wanting—and to at least SOME extent it seems Mullen’s play-calling that is suspect.
I’ll wait for the final score and
E—‘s post-mortems to pass “final judgment”, but it sure as hell hasn’t had the slightest bit of consistency. And another thing: “Will we EVER see AR at QB here again??? At least THIS season?”
I guess how we parse all this will depend on the actual final outcome...

 

[DRU2012]

I STILL can’t watch—the ache in my gut continues to grow.
The most I can manage now is the feeling that “the next turnover wins the game”...
Which, given how few this team manages to get, bodes very poorly for us—for the game, the season and the Coach!

 

[DRU2012]

Worst sign of all:
I’m down to “PRAYER”.

 

[DRU2012]

And “prayer” (not surprisingly) turns out to be useless:
Here comes that “GATOR COLLAPSE” I just KNEW was coming. We all knew that only if our OFFENSE comes to play this season do we have any chance at ALL. Trying to win a “defensive struggle” was doomed to failure.
I really cannot stand the team we have become. No heart, no toughness, no team character.
I am almost up to “BURN IT ALL DOWN!” level of dissatisfaction—no sh*t!

 

[DRU2012]

Just monitoring the scoring line is enough to piss me off.
Mullen, the “master play caller” ...my BUTT he is.
I swear, we lose THIS one, after the way our D kept it close and on offense our Coach repeatedly eschewed ANY CAJONES AT ALL, I do believe I will then be at “F*CK MULLEN” stage. Just honestly warning you all. He is “playing not to lose” against a less-talented team. So we damn WELL better NOT. Period.
Not that I give us much hope of pulling it off from here—but if we could manage that ONE turnover...
(Aw geez—I’m a die-hard Gator, what can I say? Even with a sinking heart, I love, hope and pray for my guys, our PLAYERS, to find some crumb of joy and success here...For all their hard work and poor treatment, they DESERVE that.)

 

[DRU2012]

That did it.
Mullen “guiding” his team to a “shot in overtime”—against MISSOURI!
I swear, he started things in this direction some time ago.
I normally ignore the back chatter from commentators, especially mid-game—but back when he settled for the fg to tie it up midway through the 3rd, I read one that said, “This Gator team is undisciplined, without drive or character!”
I have to agree—and THAT falls to the Coach. Standing back a ways and just monitoring the “turning point” moments of this one, for the first time I just could not avoid the impression that our Coach was merely reacting to the latest thing that happened, with no real overview or strategic grasp of what it might take to WIN.
Now it’s down to a crap shoot: We win if one of our players rises to an occasion presented to him, LOSE if it’s THEM who get that opportunity.
Either way, I’M actually HOPING it’s out of MULLEN’S hands:
I don’t know WHAT happened to the guy who was nicely recovering and rebuilding the program after Mac and others ran it aground, but he seems to have been replaced by some guy who looks more like a deer-in-the-headlights!